847
FXAK69 PAFG 012209
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
209 PM AKDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Snow tapers off tonight with up to an additional inch of snow
  through the mountain passes before Winter Weather Advisories
  expire this evening.

- Drying out Friday and Saturday allowing for breaks in the
  clouds. This will result in potentially the coldest temps of
  the season so far with Saturday AM lows in the teens.

- Slight warming trend expected Saturday into Sunday with
  daytime highs returning to the upper 30`s and lower 40`s.

- Some scattered precipitation returns Saturday night into
  Sunday for the eastern Alaska Range, Upper Tanana Valley, and
  portions of Fortymile country with a mix of light rain and
  mountain snow.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- A weak system brings light snow to Kotzebue Sound and
  surrounding areas tonight, transitioning to a rain snow mix
  Friday into Saturday. Snow totals generally under 1 inch.

- Tranquil weather elsewhere along the west coast with
  temperatures moderating into the upper 30`s and lower 40`s
  through Sunday.

- Precipitation chances increase late weekend across the Yukon
  Delta as another system moves in from the south.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Light snow and blowing snow will continue across portions of
  Central/Eastern Beaufort Coast and Brooks Range through Friday
  morning. Additional snowfall of 1 to 3 inches possible.

- Through early Saturday west winds up to 25 mph along the
  Eastern Arctic coast could result in areas of blowing snow.

- Light snow expected at times along the Western Arctic Coast
  Friday and Saturday potentially mixing with rain at times as
  high temps climb into the upper 30`s and lower 40`s.

- Colder temperatures across Central and Eastern North Slope
  with highs in the 20`s and lows in the single digits and low
  teens through Saturday.

- Mostly clear with mainly light winds Sunday before winds ramp
  up again along the coast early next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Light snow will taper off across parts of Interior and Northern
Alaska this evening and into Friday. However cooler temps look
to hang on with clearing skies potentially revealing the coldest
temps of the season for many parts of the region by Saturday
morning. Meanwhile drier and generally tranquil conditions will
follow for much of the weekend as temps climb slowly. A series
of systems could begin to impacts parts of Western and Central
Alaska next week as the Bering Sea once again becomes active.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper trough currently dominates much of Alaska as it
stretches north-south from the central Beaufort to the northern
Gulf. A couple areas of accumulating snowfall are associated
with this trough with one impacting the eastern Alaska Range and
eastern Interior thanks to shortwave energy ejecting northwards
from the Gulf around the edge of the trough. The other area of
accumulating snowfall is closer to the main energy of the upper
low near the Beaufort Sea coast and across the eastern Brooks
Range. Both areas of snowfall will diminish tonight into early
Friday and eventually depart as weak ridging starts to push in
and displace the upper low to the north.

However, before the system completely winds down, stronger
westerly winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected to develop along
the eastern Beaufort coastline Friday morning between the
lifting surface low to the north and building high pressure to
the south. There will be a brief period of lower visibility in
this area due to some blowing snow, but conditions are expected
to improve by later in the day Friday.

Meanwhile at the surface, a strong 1024 4surface high will form
over the Brooks Range by Saturday morning. This feature will
combine with clearing skies to deliver potentially the coldest
temperatures of the season so far with lows in the single
digits across the North Slope and teens throughout the Interior
early Saturday morning. This will be followed by generally
tranquil conditions as high pressure dominates for the rest of
the weekend, including a slight afternoon warming trend as well.

Meanwhile another storm system is expected to take shape over
the Bering Sea by Sunday. This will likely increase wind speeds
across the Bering Coastline and could swing additional rain/snow
showers up into parts of the YK Delta by late in the weekend.
These showers will be temperature dependent, falling either as
all snow, or a rain/snow mix. Similarly a weak upper disturbance
will also cross northwards over the eastern Alaska Range Sunday
afternoon with the potential for some additional light snowfall
extending as far north as the Upper Tanana Valley and into
portions of the Fortymile country.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The forecast period begins with a coastal storm moving east towards
Bristol Bay. By Tuesday the system will reach the western portion of
the Gulf Alaska and stall, rapidly weakening throughout Wednesday
morning. The Southeastern Interior could see a brief period of
warming throughout the period, as this storm brings warm southerly
winds to our area. Along with some mild warming, gusty winds are
expected with this storm throughout Wednesday. Within the Interior,
areas of higher terrain have the potential to see wind gusts peak at
about 30 mph on Sunday morning, and then progressively weaken as we
approach Monday morning. At the same time increased wind speeds are
expected along the West Coast and North Slope, with most areas
peaking at about 40 mph. Gusts may increase in localized areas early
next week along the North Slope, with the Northwest Arctic Coastline
having the potential to reach gusts up to 50 mph by Monday morning.
These increased gusts may contribute to brief periods of blowing
snow.

Looking further ahead there is potential for another coastal storm
to head towards our area late next week. While there is enough
confidence to confirm that there will be a storm in the Bering Sea
Friday of this upcoming week there is still model disagreement on
the details following the track of this storm. Currently, this
system`s track has been trending southeasterly, which would
result in the majority of impacts directed south of the Yukon
Delta coast, with the only threat of this storm being another
round of gusty winds. If this storm track changes to a more
northeasterly path, impacts could be felt north of Hooper Bay
towards the Norton Sound. This northeasterly track seems
unlikely due to blocking high pressure in the arctic, however if
it does move northeasterly than it would result in another
round of potential coastal flooding, gusty winds, and
precipitation. Once there is more confidence on the details
within this systems track, the impacts the system will bring
will become more clear. This storm will continue to be monitored
until a consensus on its track is reached.

Coastal Hazard Potential...
Early next week will feature another developing storm system
somewhere in the Bering. While there are model differences in
the exact position and strength of the system, the general trend
is to keep the most impactful parts of the storm to our south.
Never the less, increasing coastal winds and slight water level
rises can be expected. This situation will continue to be
monitored over the course of the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns are anticipated at this time.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for
     AKZ849-850.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ814.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ815.
&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Laney
SYNOPSIS.......Laney
SHORT TERM.....Laney
LONG TERM......Donner
COASTAL........Laney
HYDROLOGY......Laney