355
FXAK69 PAFG 012224
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
224 PM AKDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
With the arrival of June comes the arrival of much anticipated
warmer weather for much of western and central Alaska. However,
true summer-like temps will have to wait a while longer as
another system from the Arctic drops south over the region later
this week. In the meantime, pleasant and mainly dry conditions
should persist for the next several days before light
precipitation returns to the eastern North Slope and Brooks Range
Thursday. In addition some scattered showers will begin to impact
much of western Alaska late week and into next weekend.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Rain will begin to taper off this evening across the central
  Interior as showers shift northeast.

- Southwest winds gusting up to 45 mph at higher elevations and 35
  mph in valleys this afternoon will diminish overnight tonight.

- A pattern change will allow for warmer temperatures reaching the
  low to mid 70s over most of the Interior valleys beginning
  Tuesday and continuing into Thursday.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Light winds return on Tuesday allowing for warmer temperatures
  with highs in the low to mid 70s.

- Mostly clear and dry conditions persist Tuesday through Thursday
  until clouds build in later this week.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Below average temperatures are expected to persist through
  Tuesday on the North Slope with values mostly between 30 and 40
  degrees through Friday.

- Areas of light snow move persist over the Eastern Brooks Range
  and North Slope through Tuesday with less than 1 inch of snow on
  the North Slope and up to a few inches for higher elevations of
  the northern Brooks Range, including Atigun Pass.

- Additional light precipitation is expected to develop over the
  eastern North Slope and eastern Brooks Range by Thursday as a
  system from the Arctic drops southwards.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
The central and northern Interior began June on a soggy note
today thanks to an upper low digging south over the Brooks Range.
This feature will likely continue to weaken as the low begins to
shift eastwards en route to the Northern Yukon where it should
dissipate. Along the way some light shower activity will accompany
the feature tonight and Tuesday, but for the most part northern
and central Alaska will see a drying and warming trend in it`s
wake. As an upper ridge over Siberia begins to spread eastwards
across Alaska, portions of western and central Alaska will
experience their first real taste of summer as skies clear and
temps warm to above the seasonal norm by midweek.

Meanwhile 850 mb temp anomalies begin to show a downward trend
again across the Arctic coastline by Thursday as another strong
Arctic upper trough drops into the Beaufort. While this will
eventually begin to impact areas further south by the upcoming
weekend, the first shortwave rotating around this feature looks
to push a frontal boundary onto the central and eastern Arctic
Coastline Wednesday into Thursday. Interestingly enough, initial
precipitation with this feature looks to be either light rain or
a light rain/snow mix Wednesday as surface temperatures should be
at or a little above the freezing mark. As the cold air mass
deepens behind the front, this should switch to mainly light snow
by Wednesday night and Thursday as the band of precipitation
crosses the eastern Brooks Range.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Weak ridging persists over the state with a closed low pressure
system sitting over the central Brooks Range. This closed low
continues to support scattered showers through a corridor of the
Interior extending from the eastern Brooks Range and southwest
towards Galena. Isolated thunderstorm are possible this
afternoon/evening, especially near Tanana and Bettles. Localized
wetting rain chances are possible this afternoon, but chances
greatly diminish through tonight. Gusty south/southwest winds through
the central and eastern Brooks Range, the eastern Alaska Range, and
across higher terrain of the Interior gradually weaken today,
becoming light and variable as upper level ridging builds in from
the west and southeast tomorrow. Widespread precipitation and
thunderstorm chances decrease dramatically going into Tuesday, with
a warming trend into the low to mid 70s expected across the Interior
Valleys through Thursday. As skies become increasingly clear, min RH
values are expected to drop into the low 20% range across the
eastern Interior, especially near the Yukon Flats and Fortymile
Country. Elsewhere, min RH values will largely remain below 30%
through Friday. Winds in the latter half of the week will shift
towards the north/northeast, with the strongest winds gusting up to
40 mph at times through the Brooks Range and across higher terrain
of the Interior. Winds in the Interior Valleys may gust as high as
30 mph as winds mix down to the surface. A shift in the overall
pattern is expected going into the weekend as upper level troughing
builds back in over the Arctic Ocean and over the Gulf of Alaska. As
this new pattern takes hold, scattered showers and thunderstorm
chances gradually increase across Northern Alaska, allowing for a
return to wet and stormy conditions by next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No changes from the previous hydro forecast discussion.

Sagavanirktok River: Some overflowing is occurring; however, breakup
along the Sag River has not begun yet. High temperatures
increased to around the mid to upper 30s Monday with low temps in
the 20s and 30s (north to south). Tuesday and Wednesday appear to
be the warmest days with highs in the 30s to near 40 along the
coast and low 50s towards the northern Brooks Range. Temperatures
will then dip back down later in the week, exact values are
uncertain. Near the Sag River source on the north Brooks Range,
high temperatures could reach the mid 50s through Wednesday, with
snow levels reaching upwards of 4000 ft. Again, temperatures look
to cool going into the late week but continue to be above
freezing.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Thursday into Friday a low in the Gulf slowly moves east. Another
low in the North Pacific shifts northeast along the Aleutians
towards the Gulf of Alaska while the Bering Sea high responsible
for some of the early week warmth shifts back west into Siberia.
This pattern shift is more reminiscent of recent broad troughing
where we can expect Interior temperatures to moderate once more as
well as the return of daily afternoon showers and the occasional
isolated thunderstorm. Across the North Slope temperatures cool
once again to slightly below seasonal normal. In the center of the
broad trough pattern winds across Northern Alaska are not likely
to be strong or well organized. Given the high pressure that
settles over Siberia, westerly winds are most likely with the
strongest winds likely over the Chukchi Sea Coast with increased
northerly flow through the Bering Strait. This troughing pattern
is expected to take hold this upcoming weekend and may last well
into next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...None.
&&

$$

Laney/Santiago