971
FXAK69 PAFG 042338
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
338 PM AKDT Thu Jun 4 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Quiet and dry conditions will continue across much of Northern
Alaska through the weekend, as colder conditions prevail along the
coast with warmer conditions farther inland. Increasing
northwesterly flow this weekend into early next week will lead to
temperatures broadly cooling to below seasonal norms, with
accompanying daily showers and isolated thunderstorms expected.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Warm and dry conditions will continue across the Interior to
  finish out the week, with highs reaching well into the 60s and
  70s.

- Isolated showers are possible for the Alaska Range, Upper Tanana
  Valley, and Forty Mile Country Friday afternoon/evening. These
  isolated chances will expand across the Interior for Saturday
  afternoon/evening, with isolated thunderstorms joining the mix.

- Gradually cooling temperatures are expected through the weekend
  into early next week as increasingly scattered showers and
  isolated thunderstorm chances build in starting Sunday through
  midweek next week.

- Dependent on clearing skies, low temperatures Monday night
  through Wednesday night will bottom out in the 30s and 40s for
  most, with coldest valleys dropping to around freezing.

- Drier conditions are expected to build in Wednesday onward as
  temperatures see a gradual rebound to finish out the week with
  warming temperatures.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Dry conditions will continue across Western Alaska through the
  end of the week, with highs cooler on the coast in the
  30s/40s/50s and warmer inland in the 50s/60s/70s.

- Strong west to northwest gusts Kotzebue Sound continue through
  tonight with gusts up to 30 mph expected, gradually weakening on
  Friday.

- Areas of low stratus and fog will continue along the West Coast,
  particularly from the northern Seward Peninsula through the
  Bering Strait to St. Lawrence Island.

- Very isolated showers will build in northwest to southeast on
  Friday, with rain/snow showers and pockets of freezing drizzle
  possible as conditions remain predominantly dry regionwide.

- Isolated showers will then continue through the weekend as
  temperatures see a gradual cooling trend. Lows will be in the
  20s/30s/40s.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Below normal temperatures are expected to continue into early
  next week north of the Brooks Range with highs/lows in the
  20s/30s while warmer air remains situated to the south of the
  Brooks Range where highs in the 40s/50s/60s and lows in the
  30s/40s continue.

- Isolated to scattered showers expected to continue across the
  North Slope through Friday, expanding to the Brooks Range over
  the weekend into next week. Light snow accumulations are
  expected farther north.

- Gusty north/northwest wind gusts up to 30 mph will remain in
  place over the Brooks Range and Eastern Arctic Coast/Plains
  through tonight with winds gradually lessening Friday.

- Temperatures will hold steady or see a cooling trend this
  weekend into early next week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Saturday Night.

Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a 510 dm low situated in the
Beaufort Sea, a 540 dm low in the Gulf of Alaska moving into
Southeast, and a 570 dm ridge of high pressure extending northwest
from the Aleutians and Southcentral/Interior to the Bering Sea. This
setup will continue to favor an overall quiet and dry setup for much
of Northern Alaska, with colder locations along the coast as highs
still trend well into the 60s and 70s farther inland. As the ridge
axis of high pressure in the Bering Sea weakens, the H5 low in the
High Arctic will push south with colder air and increasingly
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms building in this
weekend into early next week. Farther south, another H5 low will
be moving east through the Gulf over the weekend, with some of the
energy working its way across the Upper Tanana on Saturday
bringing a slight chance for isolated showers and a thunderstorm
or two in the afternoon. Overall, quiet and predominant dry
conditions will continue across our region through the start of
the weekend with any precipitation remaining very light and
isolated in nature, ahead of changes on the way in the extended.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Sunday through next Thursday.

Thunderstorm chances briefly return to the Southern and Central
Interior on Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorms will remain scattered
and are most likely to form over terrain and move northeast into
valleys. Wind around thunderstorms will be gusty and erratic.
Rainfall accumulations in the Western Alaska Range may exceed a
quarter of an inch with these storms.

The arctic low will move into the Interior from the northwest across
the Northern Interior on Sunday into Monday. Temperatures are
expected to be well below average for the first half of next week
for a majority of the Interior and West Coast. Potential
frost/freeze products may be issued for the Fairbanks area for
Tuesday night as well as Wednesday night. Shortwaves spinning off
the low will bring snow, which at times may become mixed
precipitation for the North Slope and Brooks Range. These shortwaves
will bring gustier northwesterly winds on the Northwest Arctic Coast
from Sunday to Thursday. In the Interior, conditions will generally
be unsettled, with shower activity primarily expected on/around
terrain on Monday becoming more stratiform on Tuesday.

Model guidance starts to diverge on Wednesday. GFS models have
troughing remaining in place through the extended period, favoring
cooler and unsettled conditions. On the other hand, Euro models
favor a ridge building as it shifts from the Gulf of Alaska into
Southeast Alaska starting on Wednesday, which would bring a return
to summer-like weather.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Warm and dry conditions continue across the Interior today with
highs well into the 60s and 70s as MinRH values drop into the
20-30% range. Wind gusts to around 15 to 25 mph are leading to
localized elevated to near critical fire weather conditions at
times, particularly across the Upper Tanana Valley out towards Tok
and Northway. Beyond today, fire weather conditions due to
wind/low RH look to dissipate as winds lessen. Outside of the
Interior, cooler conditions continue along the coast sas
precipitation chances remain scarce. Increasing broad
northwesterly flow will lead to increasing precipitation chances
over the weekend into early next week, with daily scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms favored to develop. Cooler
temperatures will accompany this change in airmass, with
increasing humidities and areas of breezy winds at times.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Sagavanirktok River

Some overflowing is occurring; however, breakup along the Sag
River has not begun yet. Temperatures continue as below normal,
around the low 30s for a high near the coast and the mid to upper
30s for the northern Brooks Range. Going into the weekend and into
next week, much below normal to possibly record breaking
temperatures with lows possibly below 20 degrees and high
temperatures not exceeding freezing, except near the Brooks Range
where temperatures may reach the upper 30s. APRFC reports some
open water for the whole river channel.

Colville River

Fresh Eyes on Ice report from today shows between Umiat at Ocean
Point that the low is up slightly and is more turbid with fewer
but bigger jams present with a lot of stranded ice. APRFC reports
some open to mostly open water with mostly ice still in place by
Colville Village.

Please check weather.gov/aprfc for the latest breakup information.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-815.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-855-861.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......MacKay
KEY MESSAGES...MacKay
SHORT TERM.....MacKay
LONG TERM......Schlezinger/Troyke
FIRE WEATHER...MacKay
HYDROLOGY......MacKay