899
FXAK69 PAFG 151328
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
528 AM AKDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Multiple low pressure systems will be impacting northern Alaska,
allowing upper-level troughing to persist over the state, bringing
more rainfall, gusty winds, and moderated temperatures for the
rest of the week. As the first low continues to move eastward,
gusty winds through the Alaska Range have already decreased, but
may increase yet again as a second low begins to approach from the
Aleutian Islands today into tomorrow. Finally, a third system
will approach from Russia on Friday that will stall near Bristol
Bay, causing the potential for a trough to build over the west
side of the state and a ridge to build into the east side.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- More widespread showers are expected to continue today. An
  isolated storm from the White Mountains east towards Fortymile
  Country and Upper Tanana Valley is possible Wednesday afternoon.
  More chances of rain arrive late in the week with totals ranging
  0.25-0.50" possible through Friday.

- Though all hazards have been canceled, winds through the Alaska
  Range may persist as high as 35 mph through the early morning
  hours.

- Temperatures remain seasonably cool, with highs in the 60s
  through the rest of the week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Scattered rain showers will likely persist today. Another system
  will likely bring more widespread showers Thursday afternoon to
  Friday morning. Rainfall totals through Friday are expected to
  range 0.50-1.00" with locally higher amounts at higher
  elevations.

- Expect high temperatures in the 50s with low 60s possible by the
  end of the week.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Highest rain totals now through Friday are expected to be on the
  southern slopes of the Brooks Range, especially the central and
  eastern Brooks Range, ranging 0.50-1.00" with localized 1.50"
  at higher elevations.

- A Special Weather Statement has been issued for the possibility
  for a period of freezing drizzle, or even freezing rain,
  Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, as low temperatures
  reach the lower 30s.

- Isolated chances of thunderstorms linger today for the eastern
  Brooks Range.

- High temperatures in the widespread 50s and 60s through the
  rest of the week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Upper-level, longwave troughing persists for the next few days
due to multiple low pressure systems that are expected to impact
northern Alaska. This current slow moving trough has begun
shifting eastward, mitigating the gusty winds through the Alaska
Range. As it continues to move east, it will be associated with a
few more rounds of shortwave energy circulating around it that
will cause scattered showers, especially over the Interior today.
Within the last 72 hours, rainfall totals for most areas have
ranged 0.25-1.00" with some locally higher amounts near the Alaska
Range and Upper Kuskokwim Valley. Another low will be approaching
Alaska from the Aleutian Islands Wednesday into Thursday that
will bring more precipitation. Much like the first system, due to
its position, southerly flow may cause gusty winds through the
Alaska Range as high as 40 mph Thursday into early Friday
morning. As this system weakens, a third system will approach from
Russia Friday morning and will stall near Bristol Bay, causing a
longwave trough to set up over the West Coast and Bering Sea for
most of the weekend. More about this can be found in the Extended
Forecast section.

Due to the multiple low pressure systems that will be impacting
northern Alaska in the short term, high rainfall totals are
expected to persist through the week. By Friday afternoon, the
highest rainfall totals are expected in the southern slopes of the
Brooks Range and at higher elevations in the Interior and West
Coast and expected to range 0.75-1.25". Elsewhere in the West
Coast and Interior, rainfall totals are expected to range
0.25-0.75" while areas north of the Brooks Range are expected to
receive little to no precipitation through the rest of the week.
However, there is a non-zero chance of freezing rain/drizzle for
the eastern Arctic Coast tonight into tomorrow morning, though any
accumulation will be minor. An isolated thunderstorm from the
White Mountains east towards Fortymile Country and Upper Tanana
Valley will be possible this afternoon along with areas along the
eastern Brooks Range. Due to all these showers across the state
and the multiple low pressure systems, temperatures are expected
to remain moderated across the state for the rest of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
With extensive troughing across the Bering and Chukchi Seas and
Western Alaska, plentiful moisture is being drawn across Western
Alaska and into the Interior. By this afternoon into tonight, as a
Bering Sea low pushes inland, the Yukon Flats and Tanana Valley will
begin to see numerous showers move into the area, lasting through at
least Thursday morning. This will lead to cooler conditions through
Friday, with widespread highs in the 50s and 60s (with some low 70s
possible in the warmest spots) the next few days.

With southerly winds across the Alaska Range, gap winds through the
passes and at Delta Junction are expected to continue through later
this morning. For these conditions, a High Wind Warning for gusts up
to 75 mph is in effect for Isabel Pass, with Wind Advisories for
wind gusts up to 60 and 65 mph at Delta Junction and through Windy
Pass, respectively.

The driest portion of the Interior through Saturday looks to be the
the Upper Tanana Valley, where min RH values could fall into the mid
to low 30s on Thursday and on Saturday. Much more widespread
similarly dry conditions appear likely to expand into the Yukon
Flats and Middle Tanana Valley Sunday into early next week, when
temperatures could rise back into the low to mid 70s across a wide
area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Another 1-2 inches of rain remain possible for the southern
Alaska Range through early Thursday. Some stream and river rises
are likely, but flooding is not expected.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Saturday through Tuesday.
To started the extended time frame, general troughing will be in
place across Western Alaska, with ridging over northwest Canada and
southerly flow in the Interior. Showery activity and cool
temperatures will be commonplace across the Western Interior and in
the Brooks and Alaska Range but more scattered in the Eastern
Interior. Thunderstorms will also be less likely during this time
frame. By Monday, temperatures in the Eastern Interior are favored
to warm back into the upper 60s or 70s, with drier conditions.
Southerly flow across the Alaska Range will bring gap winds through
the passes, with returning potential for isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms across most of the area from the Brooks
Range south moving into midweek.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
&&

$$

Lewis
DS - Fire Weather/Extended Forecast