649
FXAK69 PAFG 061429
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
529 AM AKST Fri Mar 6 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A much more active pattern is on the horizon as the front from the
shortwave, working its way up the Aleutians, moves north and over
the Alaska Range. This will provide widespread snowfall chances
across much of the Interior with the greatest amounts on the
southern portions of the eastern Alaska Range and areas east of
Fairbanks. Snowfall potential in the Range could be between 6 and
12 inches. Across the Interior, snowfall is expected to be
between 3 and 7 inches. Winds are expected to pick up at the low
levels across the central portion of the state. This and the
snowfall could create the potential for decreased visibilities at
times. Over the Bering Strait today and Friday, surface winds are
expected to pick up with the the system moving into the northern
portion of the Gulf. This will bring the potential for blizzard
conditions with fresh snow still on the ground. Broad areas of low
pressure will continue over the eastern portion of the state
which may continue to provide cloud cover and scattered snowfall
chances into early next week. The extended forecast shows the
potential for another brief period of cold lows like those seen
this week, but it is not expected to last long as another system
will be working its way SE across the State from the Chukchi
throughout the week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- Cloud cover will continue to increase throughout the day as a
  low pressure system moves into Southcentral, supporting
  widespread accumulating snowfall through Saturday.

- Accumulating total snowfall amounts today through Saturday
  night will remain south of Bettles around 2-6", with locally
  higher totals in the Alaska Range around 5-10", and locally
  lighter totals across the Upper Tanana Valley around 1-2". For
  FNSB, look for 3-5" of snow.

- Winds will ramp up across the Interior today into Saturday,
  strongest across higher elevations and around Delta Junction,
  leading to areas of blowing snow at times. Wind gusts will peak
  around 20-40 mph.

- Warmer temperatures will accompany the increased cloud cover and
  widespread snowfall through Saturday, with temperatures trending
  colder early next week as skies clear and drier conditions
  return.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Winds will continue to be elevated from the NW Arctic Coast to
  the Bering Strait, with gusts up to around 50 mph. Otherwise,
  cold and dry conditions persist.

- As a low pressure system moves into Southcentral and the
  Interior today into Saturday, wind will broadly increase across
  Western Alaska with strongest winds expected along the West
  Coast with gusts of 30-50 mph, locally stronger up to 60 mph.
  This will be more likely at the higher elevations.

- Associated with the strongest winds, areas of blowing snow could
  lead to localized blizzard conditions at times.

- Light snow from this system will move into the southeast
  portions of the Western Interior this afternoon. Snowfall
  accumulations expected to be around 2 to 5".

- Warmer temperatures will accompany the increased cloud cover and
  widespread snowfall across the Western Interior through
  Saturday, as conditions remain cold and dry further west.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Cold and mostly dry conditions will continue through the
  weekend, with isolated snow showers possible at times as areas
  of low stratus persist.

- Northerly winds have ramped up along the NW Arctic Coast, and
  are expected to remain elevated through Saturday night.
  Northeast winds will increase across the Brooks Range Friday and
  Saturday. Gusty winds could lead to areas of blowing snow at
  times, especially further west and in the Brooks Range.

- Conditions will remain cold into early next week, with
  temperatures reaching down into the 20s and 30s below zero.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Early morning satellite continues to show mostly clear skies
across the central portion of the state. Farther south, a front
from the shortwave that has constantly been monitored begins to
move inland from the northern Gulf of Alaska. Winds across much of
the Interior have begun to subtly increase and will continue to do
so throughout the day. Higher elevations, above 1000ft, will see
the strongest winds with gusts between 25 and 35 mph. With CAMs
now in range for this system, guidance has begun to show the low
to be slightly more organized, which may be favorable for heavy
snowfall for some locations. Over the West Coast, the Bering
Strait will see a substantial increase in winds throughout today
which may result in blizzard conditions at times through Saturday
afternoon.

Looking at 500mb, the shortwave will work its way up the gulf
coast throughout the day today. The low will quickly disintegrate
after shortly passing just east of the Kenai Peninsula. by around
midnight, the bulk of the energy will continue east over Canada
while some of the energy will get wrapped back around through the
Tanana Valley as the main low, that was previously sitting over
the YK-Delta follows a path similar to the shortwave. By Saturday
afternoon the low will begin to become quasi-stationary just east
of the Kenai Peninsula. A ridge will begin building up over the
Bering by the end of the weekend, setting up the West Coast with
the all too familiar northerly flow aloft. This will setup the
next system to begin moving SE from the Chukchi around Sunday
afternoon. This will bring another round of increased winds to the
NW Arctic Coast through the early parts of next week. Broad
troughing will remain in place as this low continues to shift SE
into the Interior. With this continue to provide chances for
scattered clouds and isolated snowfall showers. Areas that get
this may not get as cold as areas that remain may remain clear.
This will be more likely over the Seward Peninsula and YK-Delta,
as long as the surface winds remain calm enough to prevent any
mixing.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
The extended portion of the forecast starts off in relatively good
agreement with the main low now vertically stacked and over the NE
Gulf of Alaska. Most of the models continue to show the potential
for broad troughing to continue into the middle portions of the
week. Agreement continues amongst models for another shortwave to
ride up and over the ridge in the Bering, that was set up during
the short term, and move across the West Coast by Wednesday
afternoon. This will provide the West Coast with their next round
of snowfall. A brief period may come, across the eastern portion
of the state, for low temperatures between minus 30 and minus 40
to return. This is expected starting Wednesday while the next
system moves across the West Coast. This may potentially bring the
troughing back across the eastern portion of the state by the end
of the week, along with another chance for snow showers.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801-815-832-834-835-837-839-
     847>849.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ850.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ820-821.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ838-840>846.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804-805-852.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-854-856.
     Gale Warning for PKZ810-817.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-851-857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816-850-853.
&&

$$

Twombly