672
FXAK69 PAFG 271358
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
558 AM AKDT Tue Oct 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Clear and dry conditions expected Tuesday afternoon with lows
  quickly dropping into the teens/low 20s Tuesday night. Any
  wet/slushy spots will likely refreeze overnight and create
  some potentially slick travel conditions at times through
  Wednesday.

- Rain/snow showers return Wednesday night into Thursday as a
  front moves in from the west. Liquid precipitation amounts
  around T-0.25" are possible through Thursday afternoon.

- Southerly gap winds through the Alaska Range Passes
  strengthen Wednesday night into Thursday, with gusts up to 65
  mph expected. A Wind Advisory remains in effect from 7 AM
  Wednesday through 7 AM Thursday.

- Remnants of Typhoon Champi move into the Interior Thursday
  through Friday, keeping rain/snow chances around through the
  first half of the weekend. Winds through the Alaska Range
  Passes then quickly restrengthen again Thursday afternoon,
  with gusts up to 70 mph possible.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Another round of precipitation moves into the West Coast
  Tuesday morning, with snow expected above 2000-2500 feet.
  Expect liquid accumulations around 0.25-0.50" regionwide, with
  the highest accumulations near Nome around 0.75-1.25".

- A front tapping into atmospheric river moisture moves into
  the region by Wednesday afternoon, keeping rain/snow chances
  around through early Thursday morning. Additional liquid
  accumulations will be around 0.20-0.50" regionwide, with
  locally higher amounts near 0.75-1.00".

- After a brief break in precipitation Thursday afternoon,
  remnants of Typhoon Champi move inland and bring yet another
  round of moderate/heavy precipitation, gusty winds, high surf,
  and beach erosion to the West Coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Drier conditions settle in Tuesday morning east of Anaktuvuk
  Pass while a front over the West Coast supports additional
  snow showers over the Western Brooks Range. Snowfall totals
  around 3-7 inches are expected.

- As the front moves east Wednesday through Thursday,
  snowfall chances shifts east to include the Central Brooks
  Range as well. Snowfall totals up to 8 inches are possible,
  with only 2-4 inches expected along the Dalton Highway
  Summits.

- Fairly calm and benign weather continues along the Arctic
  Coast as southerly flow persists. A few pockets of rain/snow
  showers are possible near Utqiagvik through Wednesday, but
  accumulations will remain light.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A few rain and high elevation snow showers linger this morning
across the Interior as a decaying low moves east and out of the
state. Out west, a low in the Gulf of Anadyr brings another round of
rain/snow showers to the West Coast and Western Brooks Range, with
the eastern half of the state experiencing clearer and drier
conditions due to building high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska. On
Wednesday, a front associated with the aforementioned low moves
inland and tracks east across the state, bringing a return of
rain/snow showers to the Interior. Towards the end of the work week,
remnants of Typhoon Champi move into the Bering Sea and bring yet
another round of moderate/heavy precipitation, gusty winds, and
coastal flooding/high surf to the West Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A brief lull in the active pattern is expected today as a decaying
low pressure system moves east and out of the state. This system was
responsible for widespread snow Monday afternoon within the Central
Interior that later transitioned into rain around 6 PM. As a result,
we see a few showers still lingering around the area on radar, but
they should quickly fizzle out later this morning. Looking towards
this afternoon, high pressure builds in the Gulf of Alaska and
ushers in a period of clearer and drier weather across the Interior.
We expect to see high temperatures remain fairly warm for this time
of year in the mid to upper 30s. Just for reference, the
climatological average high temperature in Fairbanks for today is 24
above, making today`s forecasted high temperature of 37 above just
over 10 degrees warmer than average. However, with clearer skies
expected heading into the overnight hours Tuesday, low temperatures
are expected to drop into the teens/low 20s across the Interior.
This will allow for wet and slushy areas to refreeze overnight and
create potentially slick travel conditions for the Wednesday morning
commute. Current 511 reports already have most of the roads in town
under the "Difficult" category, so exercise caution while traveling
through Wednesday.

Turning our attention to the West Coast, a low near the Gulf of
Anadyr continues to move north into the Chukchi Sea. Although pretty
far offshore to the west, this system will support the first of
several additional rounds of rain/snow showers set to impact the
West Coast and Western Brooks Range. The first of these waves will
move in Tuesday morning and stay mostly confined to the Seward
Peninsula and Western Brooks Range. Moderate to heavy snow is
expected at elevation which prompted the issuance of Winter Storm
Warnings in the Western Brooks Range. Near Red Dog Mine, pockets of
rain showers are possible during the day Tuesday that will likely
transition into snow overnight. Elsewhere along the coast, the
highest precipitation from this first wave is expected to be felt
near Nome where nearby rivers and streams will continue to see high
water levels throughout the week as additional precipitation impacts
the area. On Wednesday, the front associated with this low drapes
over the West Coast and taps into an atmospheric river of moisture
extending all the way down near 30N. This front eventually gets cut
off from the parent system around Wednesday morning/afternoon and
becomes entangled with an embedded shortwave trough as it moves
inland through the day. As the front pushes east, a secondary wave
of moderate/heavy precipitation impacts the West Coast, keeping
conditions wet through midweek.

Once the front reaches the Interior late Wednesday night/early
Thursday morning, rain and high elevation snow showers return to the
Central Interior. Liquid accumulations will generally range from a T-
0.25" across the region, with 1-4" of snowfall possible roughly
above 800-1000 feet. Additionally, winds through the Alaska Range
Passes strengthen Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning
with southerly wind gusts upwards of 65 mph expected. Simultaneously
along the West Coast, a brief break from precipitation is expected
following the passage of this front, but it is only short lived as
the remnants of Typhoon Champi start to come into play by Thursday
morning. As of right now, models have this storm tracking just south
of Nunivak Island, keeping coastal concerns for our area fairly
limited with the exception of Hooper Bay where early model guidance
is hinting at water levels 4 to 6 feet above the normal high tide
line. Other impacts we expect to see from this storm will be a
continuation of moderate/heavy precipitation, gusty winds, high
surf, and persistent beach erosion across the West Coast. The
fortunate thing to mention from all this is despite a prolonged
period of active weather across the western half of the state,
models show this system quickly weakening as it moves inland through
the day Friday, limiting significant impacts. More details on the
impacts from this system will be discussed in the "Long Term"
section.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At the start of the extended forecast period, Friday, a large
storm system located just south of Nunivak Island slowly pushes
east over southwestern Alaska. This storm system will be fairly
strong and very wet as it will contain remnants of Typhoon
Champi. Forecast confidence has significantly increased
regarding the positioning and strength of this storm system as
it approaches the West Coast Thursday into Friday. A vast
majority of model ensemble members track the storm just to the
south of Nunivak Island before it makes landfall in southwestern
Alaska Friday. This track will significantly limit expected
coastal impacts for the West Coast for areas north of Hooper
Bay. Periods of moderate to heavy rain will continue across the
West Coast and Western Interior through Friday morning. Another
brief period of strong southerly winds through the Alaska Range
passes is expected late Thursday through Friday as the storm
pushes against higher pressure to the east.

The storm weakens rapidly Friday into Saturday as it shifts
southeast towards the Gulf of Alaska. Broad troughing develops
across the state in the wake of this storm allowing temperatures to
cool towards their seasonal norms across Northern Alaska from
Saturday through early next week. A messy series of storms is
expected to move through the Southern Bering Sea Sunday through
Tuesday, but current forecasts keep them far to the south of Nunivak
Island. There are no current forecast concerns for significant
impacts from these storms to the West Coast from Hooper Bay
north.

&&

.COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
A series of coastal storms continues to impact the West Coast of
Alaska. The current storm in the series is a strong, roughly 960
millibar low that, as of early Tuesday morning, is moving north into
eastern Siberia just west of the Gulf of Anadyr. This western
location and northern movement keep the worst impacts from this
storm well to the west of the Alaskan coastline. It`s storm surge
and southerly flow behind it are keeping water levels higher than
normal across the West Coast. High Surf Advisories remain in effect
for the West Coast from Hooper Bay to Kivalina for these elevated
water levels. These water levels peak Tuesday with this particular
storm system and then diminish Wednesday.

Thursday sees the next, and likely final, noteworthy storm in this
series of storm systems. This next storm contains the remnants of
Typhoon Champi and is thus fairly strong and very wet. Models have
come into much better agreement on its track in the past couple of
days with high confidence in a track that puts the storm center
south of Nunivak Island. This position significantly reduces the
potential for coastal impacts for all locations north of Hooper Bay
due to mostly easterly, offshore, winds. Hooper Bay could see some
coastal flooding with this storm system though as strong easterly
winds push water from bay itself into the eastern portions of the
community. Water levels for Hooper Bay would peak with the Thursday
high tide in the 4 to 6 feet above the normal high tide range. A
Coastal Flood Watch is in effect for Hooper Bay during this storm.
The rest of the coast is expected to see much weaker impacts with
high surf expected along the rest of the Yukon Delta Coast and high
surf possible along portions of the Norton Sound Coast. High water
levels from this storm are expected to drop after the Friday high
tide(s).

Another several storm systems are expected to move through the
southern Bering Sea Sunday through Tuesday, but they are expected to
be too far south to cause any coastal impacts to portions of the
West Coast from Hooper Bay north.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Several very wet storm systems are expected to move across Alaska
this week. The heaviest precipitation from these storm systems is
currently expected across the higher elevation areas of the West
Coast and Western Interior, especially along the Southern Seward
Peninsula and the Western/Central Brooks Range. At this time, we are
not anticipating any rain or snowmelt related flooding, but we will
continue to monitor should the situation change. Additional
precipitation totals across much of Western Alaska will be around 1
to 3 inches for most locations, with south facing slopes potentially
seeing some locally higher totals. There is a chance that there
could be enough rainfall induced snowmelt to bring some minor
flooding concerns to rivers and streams in the immediate vicinity of
those higher terrain areas of Western Alaska. A Hydrologic Outlook
has been issued for the Southern Seward Peninsula to capture those
river and stream levels that have already begun to rise in response
to what precipitation has already fallen with additional
periods of moderate to heavy rainfall expected through
Wednesday.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM AKDT
     Thursday for AKZ813-814.
     High Surf Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ815-817-
     818-820>822-824-825.
     High Wind Warning until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ820-
     821-827.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Thursday morning through late Friday
     night for AKZ825.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM AKDT Thursday for
     AKZ847-849.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ801>803-
     805-807-808-810-811-850-852>857.
     Gale Warning until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ802-807-850-
     854.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ804.
     Gale Warning until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ806.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ806-809-
     858.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM AKDT this
     afternoon for PKZ811-857.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM AKDT
     Wednesday for PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ816-
     817-851.
     Gale Warning until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ851.
&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Santiago
SYNOPSIS.......Santiago
SHORT TERM.....Santiago
LONG TERM......Stokes
COASTAL........Stokes
HYDROLOGY......Stokes