996
FXAK69 PAFG 092345
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
345 PM AKDT Sat May 9 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of fronts will bring precipitation from south to north
across Alaska this weekend into Monday. On Saturday, the Interior
will see scattered showers primarily north of the Tanana Valley
and across the Western Interior. This will be followed by a more
organized front sweeping across Northern Alaska Sunday into Monday
with an increase in winds and scattered showers. Both Saturday
and Sunday, isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the
Southern Interior. Strong Winds develop along the West and North
Coasts Saturday and remain strong along the North Slope through
Monday. Looking towards mid to late week next week, the weather
pattern shifts to favor warmer and less active weather.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Chances for precipitation become more scattered across the
  Interior through the weekend into Monday. Precipitation type
  should be mostly rain, apart from higher elevations where snow
  or a rain/snow mix could occur.

- Gradual warmup is expected throughout the weekend. Maximum
  temperatures in the Southern Interior will get close to 60F
  Saturday and Sunday, and after a brief dip Monday, the warming
  trend should continue.

- Gusty NE winds will continue across the northern Interior today.
  The south slopes of the Brooks Range and Dalton Hwy Summits
  could get gusts up to 35 mph Saturday night into Sunday.

- A front will passes through the Interior late Sunday into
  Monday bringing gusty southerly winds behind it. Southerly gap
  winds through the Alaska Range passes will reach their peak
  Sunday night into Monday with gusts to around 50 to 65 mph.

- There are chances for thunderstorms in the Southern Interior
  Saturday and Sunday. On Saturday, chances are best near the AlCan
  border in the Southeast Interior. Sunday, chances spread across
  the middle Tanana Valley.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Northerly winds will increase throughout today with gusts up to
  30 mph through the Strait by the evening. Winds will start to
  diminish overnight before turning southerly behind a front
  Monday morning.

- On Monday, the cool, dry air mass over the western half of the
  state will be replaced by warm, southerly flow bringing
  temperatures into the 50s for the Western Interior and 40s along
  the coast. The warming trend continues through next week.

- A front lifts north across Western Alaska Sunday night into
  Monday morning, producing a band of precipitation which should
  be primarily rain.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Northerly gap winds through the Central Brooks Range passes will
  be slightly enhanced Saturday with gusts up to 30 mph. Monday,
  winds shift to southerly and briefly gusty in the morning.

- The Central and Eastern Brooks Range and North Slope will see
  chances for snow through the weekend. Daily snow accumulations
  look to be up to 3 inches in the heaviest places.

- Monday morning, a front brings a band of snow across the Brooks
  Range, arriving north of the Range by the afternoon.
  Accumulations should be generally less than an inch.

- Northeasterly winds, at times gusty, will gradually increase
  across the North Slope through Saturday night. Winds will be
  strongest along the Western and Eastern Arctic Coast where winds
  peak upwards of 40 mph. Winds will remain elevated through the
  start of next week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Monday Night.

A 525 decameter low over southwest Alaska has been the main
driver of weather this week, but a 528 dam low cruising northward
from the Pacific is here to shake things up this weekend. This
morning, the western half of Alaska continues to be drier and
cooler. In the Interior, there are scattered showers. Along the
north slope there is low stratus. At the surface, high pressure
over the Arctic and low pressure in the Gulf is creating a
gradient across the state which is producing northerly to
northeasterly winds. Through the day Saturday, the Pacific low
will approach the Gulf coast. As it does, winds will strengthen,
slightly over the Interior but more impressively along the Arctic
Coast and through the Bering Strait. It will also advect moisture
into the Interior, resulting in more widespread showers through
Saturday evening. Some of the showers in the southeast Interior
will be thunderstorms.

Sunday, the upper-level low from the Pacific is pulled into the
low over southwest Alaska. As that happens, a band of
precipitation forms from Cook Inlet to the Seward Peninsula. This
is the start of a front that will develop through the day Sunday
and eventually move back north. A ridge will begin to build over
the Panhandle. Winds through the Bering Strait should weaken as
the gradient becomes more zonal. However, winds remain strong
along the Arctic Coast. Temperatures should warm up closer to
seasonally average as southerly flow sets up late Sunday.

On Monday, the upper-level low will extend east to west from the
Western Interior toward a new Low arriving along the Aleutians.
The part of the low over Alaska, will send a front northward through
the Western Interior with an accompanying band of precipitation.
Behind the front, winds in the Interior will be gusty and
southerly. There may be few more thunderstorms in the southern
Interior with these showers as well. Winds along the North Slope
will remain strong and easterly, with areas along the Eastern and
Western Arctic Coast gusting up to 45 mph. Once the last of the
cool air from the Arctic low has passed, the southerly flow
pattern should warm temperatures to near seasonal average.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

General troughiness across the state will continue to allow for
isolated precipitation chances across the Interior today through the
weekend. Temperatures are expected remain on the cooler side with
highs mostly in the upper 40s and lower 50s today. This weekend will
likely see increasing temperatures, with some areas possibly
reaching 60. Areas that see a quick warm up may also see quick drops
in RH as well. Minimum RHs are expected to be between 30% and 40%
through the end of the weekend. The lowest humidities are expected
on Sunday where the Tanana Valley could see as low as 25%. Northerly
winds could be gusting as high as 30 mph for areas in the Yukon
Flats and Central Interior today. Thunderstorms may be isolated
today in the SE Interior, especially Eagle, and on Sunday in Tanana
Valley.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flood Watches remain in effect for the Kuskokwim River at McGrath
and the Koyukuk River at Hughes for a series of ice jams leading
to potential flooding. Farther east, members of the public and
River Watch officials report continued ice jam flooding on the
Chatanika River west of the Elliott Highway and along the Tanana
River near the confluence with the Cosna River. The Flood Watch
for Manley has been allowed to expire.

The Flood Warning has been cancelled for Chalkyitsik as water
levels have receded, and we will continue to monitor progression
on the Yukon River of the breakup front for any additional
hazards. The breakup front is below Beaver with heavy ice runs are
expected at Fort Yukon where that area could see associated water
level rises but no flooding.

Head to www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest hydro information.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Tuesday through next Saturday.

As an upper level trough moves from the Bering Sea toward the Gulf
of Alaska, southerly gap winds are expected to taper off by Tuesday
morning. Light, isolated showers are still likely for most of
Central and SW Alaska in the form of rain, as surface conditions are
expected to warm into the 50s for this area, though snow is still
possible at higher elevations. All precipitation is expected to be
limited for the Interior into the middle of the week. The low is
expected to reach the Gulf of Alaska around Thursday afternoon, with
a weak ridge building in for NW Alaska. This ridging will likely
restrict any precipitation from occurring.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ852.
     Flood Watch for AKZ828.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
     Gale Warning for PKZ811.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815-856>858-860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$

JT/EK/SCL/CM