276
FXAK69 PAFG 292156
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
156 PM AKDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

The recent spell of wet weather will gradually come to an end this
evening and overnight as the responsible storm system exits to the
east. Strong winds will continue to blow behind a departing cold
front but will settle down by Saturday morning. Saturday should
generally be a quieter weather day for most, albeit a bit cooler
in most areas. Meanwhile another storm brewing in the Bering will
bring additional bands of light to moderate rainfall to western
areas Saturday night into Sunday and Monday.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

 - As a cold front continues to move through, rain will shift east
   with the front. Breezy west-southwest winds up to 35 mph and
   cooler temperatures will occur in its wake.

 - Except for a few peeks of clear skies Friday evening through
   Saturday morning, skies will be mostly cloudy, with chances
   for light rain showers later on Saturday into Sunday.

 - The upper Tanana Valley will see a few showers later today, but
   otherwise will stay dry through the upcoming weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...

 - Spotty light showers will remain possible across the area
   through tonight in the wake of a cold front. A system moving
   in from the Bering will spread steady rain chances northeast
   along the West Coast from late tonight through Saturday.

 - Rainfall totals through Saturday afternoon primarily stay below
   0.5", but coastal portions and higher elevations of the Seward
   Pen and YK Delta and southern slopes of the Brooks Range up to
   1".

 - A coastal system brings a sustained period of southerly winds
   to the coast that may result in another High Surf Advisory and
   continued rain chances Saturday into early next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

 - Spotty snow showers will continue through this evening across
   the Arctic Slope and Arctic coastline. Additional light
   accumulations are possible but will be hindered by relatively
   warm ground temperatures and temperatures hovering near the
   freezing mark.

 - West winds up to 30 to 40 mph, with higher gusts, will be
   possible over the eastern Arctic Coast tonight into Saturday
   as a low moves offshore. Winds of 20 to 30 mph will be possible
   from west of Point Thomson to Nuiqsut during this same time
   frame.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is currently traversing the eastern half of
northern Alaska and is dragging a surface cold front along with
it. The front was located across the Eastern Interior as of early
this afternoon and is expected to cross into northwestern Canada
this evening. In the wake of this front a 14 to 16 millibar
pressure gradient is taking shape between the surface low near the
northeast Arctic coastline and higher pressure developing near
the Alaska Range. We expect to see gusty west and southwest winds
from the central interior into Fortymile Country this evening and
into the overnight hours. Thus a wind advisory has been posted to
reflect these stronger winds.

Meanwhile overnight will bring an eventual end to the steady
precipitation that has been occurring the past several days. Most
areas should dry out in the post frontal environment tonight and
Saturday with the exception of the Yukon Delta where the next
scheduled storm system will start to push rainfall ashore as early
as Saturday afternoon.

The weekend will feature a building ridge over the eastern half of
the region with troughing regaining a foothold over the west.
Expect temperatures Saturday to run 5 to 8 degrees cooler than
normal as most areas will see only limited sunshine with high
level moisture streaming back over the area thanks to increasing
southwest flow aloft ahead of the next developing storm system.
As low pressure moves into the southwest Bering another round of
healthy moisture transport will result in additional rainfall
over the west coast and the western interior Sunday into Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns remain at a minimum as wet conditions and
limited fuel availability highlight most of the region. The upper
Tanana Valley remains the exception as drier conditions will
persist through the weekend and into early next week. However fuel
availability is limited and expected to remain that way.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A Flood Watch remains in effect through Sunday morning for areas
surrounding the Noatak, Kobuk, and Koyukuk rivers. Flood
advisories remain in effect for Kobuk and the Sanctuary River in
Denali National Park as water levels remain high at both locations.
At Allakaket, a flood warning remains in place as the Koyukuk
River is expected to now crest overnight into Saturday morning.

Elsehwere hydrologic outlooks are in place for rivers and streams
in and around Denali National Park as well as along the Southern
slopes of the Brooks range and throughout the western interior due
to recent heavy rains.

Lighter rainfall will continue in the Western Interior and
especially the higher elevations of the Western Brooks Range where
up to 1.25" of rain is possible along the south facing slopes
through tonight. Additional rainfall is expected late this
weekend into early next week, but early forecast information
indicates lighter rainfall amounts than what fell earlier this
week.

Recent heavy rainfall will allow elevated water levels to persist
into the weekend. Keep up to date with all hydro information at
weather.gov/afg and weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...

Wet conditions will continue across Northern Alaska, with a
coastal system early next week bringing extensive rainfall to the
West Coast and Western Interior early next week, potentially
shifting east in the Central and Eastern Interior through Tuesday
afternoon. Up to another 0.5 to 1 inches of rain are possible
across most of the Western Interior, with higher totals of 1 to
1.5 inches over the southern slopes of the western Brooks Range
and in the Upper Kuskokwim Valley. Southerly winds over the Bering
will also make a return. While a warm day is possible over the
Eastern Interior on Monday with a weak/low-amplitude ridge poking
in from Canada, most weather otherwise looks cloudy and near-
normal.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...

There is the potential for some high surf along the southern
Seward Peninsula coast as well as the Yukon Delta Coast by Monday
as an area of low pressure stall over the western Bering Sea. This
system will be weakening with time, so no major coastal impacts
are expected at this time.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ813-814-819-828-831.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ832>834-838>846.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-850-851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803-852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-807-808-856-859.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ809-855.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ814.
     Gale Warning for PKZ815-861.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-853-854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ860.
&&

$$

Laney