884
FXAK69 PAFG 292302
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
302 PM AKDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- North of the Alaska Range, rain and snow chances increase this
evening across the central interior then diminish Friday night.
Mainly snow is expected north of the Yukon River with rain farther
south below 2000 ft. There is a chance for freezing rain along a
southwest to northeast oriented transition zone.

- Downslope southerly winds keeps the southeast interior including
Fairbanks mostly dry. Snowfall amounts range from 0-4" across the
interior valleys with 4-8 inches for the Dalton Highway summits and
up to 12 inches in the Brooks Range.

- For the Alaska Range, southerly upslope flow brings moderate snow
to the southern slopes tonight into Saturday with 4-8 inches for the
Parks Highway and 6-12 inches for the Richardson Highway. Wind gusts
up to 35 mph may result in areas of blowing snow.

- Southerly gap winds are expected for the Alaska Range passes with
gusts up to 70 mph for Windy Pass and up to 85 mph possible for
Isabel Pass north of Trims Camp.

- Unseasonably mild conditions continue through Saturday with highs
in the mid 30s to near 40 and lows in the 20s and low 30s. These
temperatures are about 10 to 15 degrees above the late October
seasonable averages.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- A broad swath of precipitation spreads northeast tonight with
numerous showers along the West Coast for Friday and isolated
showers further inland that gradually diminish over the weekend.

- Snow levels decrease from about 2kft southeast of the Seward Pen
to around 500ft over the Koyukuk and at the surface over the western
Seward Pen. Below about 500ft receives up to 3 inches of snow, 3-7
inches for higher elevation ridges, and locally up to 10" for the
highest elevation mountains.

- A cold front briefly shifts east Saturday into Sunday bringing
drier weather and more seasonable temperatures until the next Bering
Sea low brings a return to much above normal temperatures and
precipitation chances early next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Snow is expected across the West-Central Brooks Range tonight
through Friday then expanding northwest across the Romanzof
Mountains and Chukchi Coast on Friday.

- Snowfall amounts are generally less than 4 inches except for the
higher elevation portions of the Brooks range where 4-12 inches are
expected. Snow chances end by Monday morning.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures continue as highs in the 30s and
lows in the 20s persist across most of the North Slope through
Saturday, maintaining well above normal thermal trends for late
October.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...Ex-Typhoon Champi will be the driving factor of Alaska`s
weather into this weekend. As this system tracks east toward Bristol
Bay through Friday, a tight pressure gradient forms over Alaska.
This will result in gusty south winds, especially for the Alaska
Range Passes that will persist through Saturday. Associated with
these gusty winds is high surf especially during the afternoon high
tides through Friday near Hooper Bay. A warm front tracks northeast
across Alaska this weekend, bringing with it another round of rain
for the YK-Delta and lower elevations across the interior and snow
for the northern interior and higher elevations. As a result of the
southerly flow associated with this system, the southeast interior
including Fairbanks remain mostly dry. The North Slope also stays
mostly dry, but chances of light snow spread north of the Brooks
Range Friday through the weekend. The storm system weakens over the
weekend leading to more isolated rain/snow showers for the West
Coast/Western Interior, especially near the systems cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Through Saturday/...
An amplified upper level pattern due to the remnants of Typhoon
Champi and downstream ridging result in another period of active
weather through this weekend. The primary weather impacts are
associated with an expansive precipitation shield shifting northeast
across Northern Alaska embedded within a Chinook pattern. The warm
origins of the this system results in another period of mixed
precipitation. The Chinook pattern keeps most of the south-central
and eastern interior dry where downslope flow prevails and results
in warmer temperatures mainly at or above 30F through Friday.
Farther north and west, precipitation may begin as snow at lower
elevations, but it is expected to transition to rain south of the
Yukon Valley. Otherwise, elevations above 1500-2000ft should stay
predominantly snow with up to 4 inches across the interior highlands
and up to 12 inches across the west-central Brooks Range. By midday
Friday a warm front extends from south-central AK toward the Chukchi
coastline and a cold front extends south from there along the West
Coast. The cold front focuses precipitation chances Friday night
through Saturday as it slowly shifts east, bringing a more
seasonable air mass.

The Alaska Range is the other noteworthy area of weather impacts
with southerly upslope flow focusing snowfall for the south-facing
slopes. Snowfall amounts range from 6 to 12 inches within the passes
along the highways with higher amounts at higher elevations. Very
strong winds are expected through both mountain passes with Windy
Pass already gusting up to 67 mph and Isabel gusting up to 64 mph.
With a cross-barrier pressure gradient around 8-10 mb and 500 mb
flow nearly parallel to the passes gusts over 70 mph are likely
tonight and Friday before diminishing Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM.../Saturday Night through Wednesday/...
Upper-level troughing is expected to weaken Saturday night into
Sunday morning, giving way for weak upper-level ridging to build in
Monday with a NW to SE orientation over the state as troughing
persists over the Bering Sea due to an approaching low. Models have
been changing how they handle this low, though the ECMWF has been
trending a more southerly track like the GFS. Since this is seeming
more likely, winds through the Alaska Range passes aren`t expected
to be as strong as the previous ECMWF model runs were showing. Winds
are still expected to increase for the West Coast and Western
Interior Monday morning and remain fairly gusty through the period.
Rain/snow showers are also expected to be more isolated for those
areas while the Central and Eastern Interior are expected to remain
drier.

Models are hinting at another low approaching the state from the
Aleutian Islands, though the GFS has it approaching the
mainland faster than the ECMWF. Beyond Tuesday, model
differences increase dramatically as the GFS has the troughing
lingering in southwest Alaska and the ECMWF has it passing into
the Gulf of Alaska. The ECMWF and GFS have another low
approaching the state Wednesday and Wednesday night, though the
ECMWF has it a bit stronger and a bit further north than the
GFS, but both have it staying in the Gulf of Alaska.


.COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...

As the remnants of Typhoon Champi continue east tonight into Friday,
high surf is expected with elevated sea levels of 2.5 to 3.5 feet
above the normal high tide line. While onshore flow persists, these
higher water levels contribute to beach erosion and high surf that
may bring water to nearby low lying areas, especially during the
evening high tide cycles. Ex-Typhoon Champi weakens and tracks
southeast toward the Gulf of Alaska late this week leading to
improving conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Repeated rounds of precipitation due a series of storm systems over
the past week already resulted in elevated river and stream levels,
especially for the Seward Peninsula. The remnants of Ex-Typhoon
Champi brings another round of precipitation up to 0.5" resulting in
river levels remaining elevated this weekend. While the water levels
remain elevated, there are no flooding concerns at this time.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Surf Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ825.
     High Wind Warning until 5 AM AKDT Friday for AKZ847.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight AKDT Friday night for
     AKZ848.
     High Wind Warning until 7 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ849.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM AKDT
     Saturday for AKZ850.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ801-802-804.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ803-
     812>815-859>861.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT
     Friday for PKZ803.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ805-852-853.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ806-
     858.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT
     Friday for PKZ806-807.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT
     Friday for PKZ808.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT
     Friday for PKZ809-855.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ811-
     857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ814-
     815.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 1 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ814.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ816-851.
     Gale Warning from 1 AM to 4 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ816.
     Gale Warning from 7 AM to 1 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ817-854.
     Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT Friday for
     PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ850.
     Gale Warning from 7 AM to 4 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ851.
     Gale Warning from 4 AM to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ854.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT
     Friday for PKZ856.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ858-
     859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for
     PKZ859>861.
     Brisk Wind Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ859.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 4 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ860.
&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Kutta
SYNOPSIS.......Donner
SHORT TERM.....Kutta
LONG TERM......Lewis
COASTAL........Donner
HYDROLOGY......Donner