188
FXAK69 PAFG 102249
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
249 PM AKDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong coastal storm pushing into the Chukchi Sea will be the
primary driver of inclement weather conditions for the next few
days. Strong winds and onshore flow along the Bering and
Chukchi coastlines will continue to produce high surf and
coastal erosion through Friday afternoon. Meanwhile very heavy
rainfall associated with an atmospheric river will take aim on
the West Coast and western Brooks Range tonight and early Friday
with the heavy rain threat slowly shifting east towards the
Interior by the weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
-  Continued cool and damp conditions are expected across much
   of the Interior for the next few days. Highs will be a tad
   bit warmer Friday (generally 50`s and lower 60`s) before
   dropping back into the 50`s over the weekend.

- A warm front associated with a storm in the Chukchi will
  continue to bring widespread precipitation to the Interior
  through this evening with rain tapering off by Friday morning.

- A second wave of precipitation will push into the region later
  Friday and continue into parts of Saturday as a cold front
  associated with the Chukchi low moves eastwards. This feature
  will also tap into an atmospheric river, so rainfall may be
  heavier in some locations. Additional rainfall amounts through
  the weekend could range from 0.50" to 1.50".

- By early next week, another low is expected to move into the
  Bering Sea and bring additional chances for rain and gusty
  winds across the Central/Southern Interior, especially for the
  Alaska Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- High Surf Advisories remain in effect through late Friday
  night along the coast from the Yukon Delta to Kivalina for
  water level rises around 2 to 5 feet above the normal highest
  high tide line.

- High Wind Warnings remain in effect through Friday afternoon
  for St. Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait for wind gusts
  up to 65 mph.

- Due to the influence of an Atmospheric River, storm total
  rainfall amounts through Saturday will be around 0.25" to
  1.00" regionwide.

- Highest rainfall totals are expected to across the Southern
  Seward Peninsula, along the southern slopes of the Western
  Brooks Range, and throughout the Kobuk/Noatak/Wulik River
  Valleys where 1.50" to 2.50" is possible. Locally higher
  amounts nearing 2.75" to 3.50" are also possible across the
  higher terrain due to strong upslope flow.

- By early next week, a new low pressure system is expected to
  move into the Bering Sea Monday into Tuesday bringing yet
  another round of widespread rain and gusty winds to Western
  Alaska. No coastal major impacts are expected right now, but
  we will continue to monitor this system over the next few
  days.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- As a storm enters the Chukchi Sea, widespread rain and gusty
  winds will continue.

- Strong onshore flow will continue to impact the NW Arctic
  Coast where high surf and minor coastal erosion is expected.

- High Surf Advisories remain in effect for the NW Arctic Coast
  from Point Hope to Wainwright for water level rises around 3
  to 5 feet above the normal highest high tide line. High Wind
  Warnings also remain in effect through Friday afternoon for
  Point Hope to Point Lay for wind gusts up to 65 mph.

- Storm total rainfall amounts through Saturday will range
  from 0.50" to 1.00" regionwide, with the highest rainfall
  totals in the Western Brooks Range around 1.50" to 2.50".
  Locally higher amounts nearing 2.75" to 3.50" is possible
  across the higher terrain due to strong upslope flow.

- By early next week, the Chukchi Sea low will continue to
  progress farther east into the Beaufort Sea with the potential
  for a coastal low-level jet to develop along portions of the
  Beaufort Sea coastline. This area will continue to be
  monitored for the potential of very strong winds Late Sunday
  and into monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A potent coastal storm continues to unfold along the west coast
of ALaska as well as along the Northwest Arctic Coastline as a
strengthening surface low slowly emerges from Russia`s Chukchi
Peninsula into the Chukchi Sea proper near Wrangel Island
tonight. The upper atmospheric pattern remains unchanged with
an associated upper trough over the Chukchi region while an
anomalously strong Pacific ridge extends into the northern Gulf
of Alaska. This setup lends high confidence to the eventual
path of the surface low as models all agree on an eastward
progression across the southern Beaufort over the next several
days.

Sensible weather highlights for the rest of today and into
tonight will still focus on strengthening southwest flow
through the Bering Strait and into the southern Chukchi. This
wind direction represents mostly onshore flow for west coast
communities leading to much higher than normal water levels
through tonight and into parts of Friday. Several High Surf
advisories along with High wind Advisories and Warnings will
remain in effect through Friday as a result.

Aside from the short term wind concerns, there is also a threat
for very heavy rainfall. A warm frontal boundary that has
advanced from the west coast through the Interior the past 24
hours has continued to prime the area with widespread moderate
rainfall. Southwest flow aloft will tap into an atmospheric
river which will focus a band of heavy rainfall from the Seward
Peninsula through the western Brooks Range and up onto the
western North Slope tonight and Friday. Storm total
rainfall amounts will range from 0.50" to 1.00" regionwide with the
highest rainfall amounts expected in the Southern Seward Peninsula,
south slopes of the Western Brooks Range, and the Kobuk/Noatak/Wulik
River Valleys. In these areas, rainfall amounts will range from
1.50" to 2.50" with locally higher amounts nearing 2.75" to 3.50"
possible across the higher terrain due to strong upslope flow.
Hydrologic concerns across this area will continue through the
early weekend as runoff and saturated soils could play a role
inn some localized flooding. Additional information on this is
found below in the Hydrologic section.

This atmospheric river will shift eastwards towards the Central
and Eastern Brooks Range as well as much of the Interior for
Friday evening into Saturday. Additional moderate will fall in
these areas as well as the weekend gets underway. In general,
additional rainfall amounts of 0.10 to 0.50" can be expected in
these areas as the cool damp conditions of the past several days
continues. However, some drying could set in, especially for
the Interior by late in the weekend.

Meanwhile the tail end of the weekend will not be as pleasant
along the eastern Arctic coastline as the remnants of the
original surface low over the Chukchi advances eastwards. While
models are all in agreement that this system will result in
additional precipitation across portions of the North Slope,
there are disagreements on the intensity of the surface winds,
especially near the coastline. While it is too early for any
headlines, the potential for high winds from Utqiagvik to
Kaktovik will exist Sunday into early Monday as a potential
coastal low-level jet sets up near the coastline.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Our extended period begins on Monday with an arctic low north over
Alaska, and low pressure system moving north into the Bering Sea. As
the Bering Sea low progresses north it will force a ridge east over
Alaska by Tuesday morning. Tuesday evening through Wednesday
morning, the Bering Sea low will strengthen as it begins to approach
the West Coast. Wednesday morning the arctic low`s flow will get
wrapped into the Bering Sea low, which will deepen the cyclone, and
strengthen it before it moves through Alaska on Wednesday afternoon.
As the storm travels across Alaska throughout Wednesday it will
travel northeast up the ridge leaving our area Thursday morning.

Model guidance has shown a greater confidence and alignment in the
Bering Sea low`s track, as well as the atmospheric river associated
with these systems. Guidance shows the Bering Sea low progressing
north through the Bering Sea, and then moving east towards Alaska.
During this time, guidance has suggested that the atmospheric river,
that previously was directly headed for our area, will now instead
trend east and be caught within the pacific highs flow. Which as a
result, directs the heaviest amounts of atmospheric moisture east
away from our area. Although there is enough evidence to see a
diminish in the moisture supply with this storm, the Bering Sea low
still will likely hold a substantial amount of atmospheric moisture
within its core as it tracks towards Alaska.

Due to the previous moisture that was supplied by the atmospheric
river, this storm has the potential to produce a substantial amount
of rainfall for majority of the Western Interior, and YK-Delta.
There is a chance for the South/Central Western Interior receiving
rainfall accumulations up to a total of 2 inches Wednesday through
Thursday, with the West Coast seeing amounts anywhere between 0.5 to
1 inch. As this storm rides up the ridge over the eastern portion of
Alaska, the cyclones circulation can shift to a more southerly
trend. If this occurs, the remaining amount of moisture will likely
be downsloped, and light to moderate rainfall accumulations
would impact the Eastern Interior Wednesday through Thursday.
However, there is general uncertainty in all of these rainfall
totals, and will continue to be monitored through the week until
higher model confidence is demonstrated.

Throughout the extended, wind gusts are expected with this upcoming
storm. When the low approaches the Bering Sea Monday through
Wednesday it will form a pressure gradient with the sustained ridge
over Alaska. This pattern supports development of a 925 mb Jet, and
as the northern low`s arctic air gets wrapped into the Bering Sea
low, chances for these winds to mix down to the surface increase. If
this pattern persists, the YK-Delta, Southwestern Interior, West
Coast, and Alaska range may experience another round of gusty winds
Wednesday morning. Exact wind gust speeds still need to be monitored
but at this current solution, models are suggesting the Yk-Delta,
West Coast, and Southwestern Interior seeing gusts between 30 to 40
mph Tuesday through Thursday. If the Bering Sea low supports
southerly flow on its approach to Alaska Tuesday through Wednesday,
gusts could potentially reach warning criteria along the Alaska
Range, specifically within Isabel and Windy pass. However, there is
discrepancy on the low track through the Interior.


&&

.COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
A strong low is quickly moving into the Chukchi Sea this afternoon
bringing gusty southwesterly winds along the West Coast. These gale
force winds and a long fetch of southwesterly flow will result in
water rises of 2 to 5 feet above mean high water from Hooper Bay to
Point Lay. The highest water levels will be from Golovin to
Unalakleet. The areas of the biggest concerns will be Golovin due to
it potentially reaching 5.5 feet which could begin to overtop the
berm, and Kivalina due to heavy rain in the Wiluk River basin
draining into the lagoons surrounding the community paired with
an additional 2 to 4 feet of storm surge. We are not
anticipating any significant impacts, but we are continuing to
monitor the situation as it evolves.

Due to a roughly 48 hour prolonged period of strong southwesterly
winds, there will be multiple high tide cycles that will be
elevated. Waters are slowly rising today along the Norton Sound and
the Yukon Delta Coastline, reaching their peak Thursday night before
gradually returning to normal by late Friday night. For communities
along the Kotzebue Sound and NW Arctic Coastline, waters will begin
to rise early Thursday morning and peak Friday morning before
gradually returning to normal Saturday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak trough is moving through the Tanana Valley this afternoon and
will eject southeast towards the AlCan Border. This trough could
bring a quick round of isolated to scattered showers to the Upper
Tanana Valley with the best chances from Tok to Delta Junction.
Accompanying this rain will be gusty northwesterly winds up to 20 to
25 mph from Tok to Northway. Moving into the overnight hours these
winds will begin to subside. As the trough moves east a ridge of
high pressure will quickly move into the region. This will bring a
brief warming and drying trend for the Upper Tanana Valley tomorrow
morning. Temperatures will rise into the upper 60s and potentially
70 degrees. Minimum RHs will be around 35 to 40 percent, but
increasing cloud cover in the afternoon will help to moderate these
RHs.

Friday evening and into the overnight hours a cold front from a
coastal storm will begin to move through the Tanana Valley bringing
gusty winds, cooler temperatures, and wetting rains. The driest
point in the Upper Tanana Valley will be Northway, but still should
pick up 0.10" of rainfall as the front moves through the region.
Looking ahead in the Upper Tanana the rest of the weekend looks to
be mild but dry as weak ridging is over the region. Another system
Monday to Wednesday could bring another round of wetting rains, but
there is a lot of uncertainty with this storm.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A strong low is moving into the Chukchi Sea late Thursday night
and will be accompanied with an atmospheric river extending to
the tropics. This atmospheric river will help to produce 72 hour
rainfall totals of 0.5" to 2.5" for most of Northern Alaska.
The wettest areas will be the Southern Seward Peninsula and the
south slopes of the Western Brooks Range will be the wettest.
Friday and into Saturday the front that brought the moderate to
heavy rainfall will drape and stall across the northern slopes
of the Alaska Range. This could help to produce 0.75" to 1.5" of
rainfall in 24 hours from Denali Park to the White Mountains
including the FNSB. This rainfall isn`t looking likely that it
will produce any flooding impacts, but could create rapid rises
in the smaller tributaries.

In the Western Brooks Range and Northwestern Interior particularly
the Kobuk, Noatak, and Wulik a hydrologic outlook has been issued.
With the continued periods of heavy rainfall in the region the
smaller streams will be more vulnerable to see bankfull conditions
and rapid rises. No flooding in this region is expected.

Across most of Northern Alaska the mainstem rivers are rising due to
multiple rounds of moderate to heavy precipitation, but with enough
time in between rounds of precipitation the main stem rivers have
stayed below action stage. However, on the smaller creeks and
streams could see rapid rises and/or bankfull conditions. Recreators
should be prepared for rapidly changing water conditions in the
smaller tributaries.

&&


.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Wind Warning until 4 PM AKDT Friday for AKZ801-820-821-
     827.
     High Surf Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ801-802-
     815>818.
     High Surf Advisory until 10 PM AKDT Friday for AKZ820>822-824-
     825.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ801-850.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ802-803-853.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ804>810-816-
     817-852-854>856.
     Gale Warning until 10 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ806.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ807.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ810-856.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ811-857.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ811-
     812-851-857.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ812-858.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT
     Friday for PKZ813.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT
     Friday for PKZ814.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ815-
     858.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ859.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT
     Friday for PKZ860.
&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Laney
SYNOPSIS.......Laney
SHORT TERM.....Laney
LONG TERM......Donner
COASTAL........Dennis
FIRE WEATHER...Dennis
HYDROLOGY......Dennis