367
FXAK69 PAFG 022231
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
231 PM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025


.SYNOPSIS...
The wet pattern continues for the region into the foreseeable
future. A series of lows will move across the state bringing waves
of rain with brief relatively drier days between. The next wave is
expected Wednesday through Thursday with the one following
Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Showery conditions from this morning are continuing to scatter
  and diminish through the afternoon.

- Additional rain showers return to the Central Interior Wednesday
  morning and move east into the Eastern Interior Wednesday night
  into Thursday. Generally 0.10 to 0.25 inches of rain expected
  for most valley locations Wednesday through Friday.

- Occasional southwest wind gusts expected in the Yukon Flats and
  elevated terrain north of Fairbanks today. Gusts of 20 to 30
  mph will diminish through the afternoon.

- Southerly flow increases through Alaska Range passes Wednesday
  morning with gusts up to 45 mph possible Wednesday through early
  Thursday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Rain showers continue along the West Coast through this evening
  with rain accumulations up to 0.10 inches for most valley and
  coastal locations and 0.20 to 0.40 inches expected for the south
  facing slopes.

- Another round of rain moves into Southern Interior Wednesday
  morning, and into the northern Interior by Wednesday evening.
  Rain is expected to last through Thursday.
- Additional 0.50 to 1.00 inches of rain possible.
- Up to an inch possible for elevated areas, especially south
   facing slopes.

- Gusty southerly winds along the coast diminish this afternoon
  and evening.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Periods of rain continue in the Brooks Range through Thursday.
- 1 to 2 inches of rain through Thursday.

- Atigun Pass will see up to 0.75 inches of rain through Friday
  with the heaviest rain on Thursday. Overnight Tuesday and
  Wednesday could see snow mix in with the rain creating a
  rain/snow mix. Rising snow levels Thursday will help melt any
  accumulations.

- Warm temperatures continue through Thursday along the North
  Slope. Cooling towards normal expected Friday before additional
  warming occurs Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Very progressive pattern continues with a ridge over Western
Canada and the Gulf of Alaska that keeps lows moving through the
pattern flowing further north into the West Coast. The most recent
wave of showers moves east and continues to scatter through
tonight. The next low in the pattern will move through Bristol Bay
Wednesday, north along the West Coast Wednesday night, and into
the Western Brooks Range Thursday. This low will bring half an
inch to an inch to most of the Western Interior, leaning on the
higher end of that range along south facing slopes. It will also
be the cause of the increased pressure gradient along the Alaska
Range bringing gusty southerly winds to Alaska Range passes.

Friday the next system moves into the Western Bering as the
previous system exits to the northeast. Model disagreement begins
to increase with the timing and positioning of this next system.
Models are in relatively good agreement on its strength at around
986mb, but the differences in positioning and timing make
estimations of impacts more uncertain. The ensemble mean has this
low move northeast into the Norton Sound Saturday night bringing
rain to most of the West Coast and Western Interior Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wet conditions continue for most of the region. The exception is
the Upper Tanana Valley where warmer temperatures, with highs in
the 70s, and drier conditions, with minimum RHs in the upper 30s
to upper 40s, remain. Increased southerly flow over the Alaska
Range Wednesday and Thursday will keep conditions dry in the Upper
Tanana Valley. Additional rain showers will move into this area
Thursday night into Friday, but are expected to remain scattered
with low chances of wetting rain.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A flood watch remains in effect for the Noatak, Kobuk, and Koyukuk
rivers. Flood advisories remain in effect for Kobuk and Allakaket.
The wet pattern with multiple rounds of rain continues through the
weekend with 0.5 to 1.0 inches of rain expected with the next
large system Wednesday through Thursday and another round expected
Saturday and Sunday. Additional rain will slow the rate that water
levels receed, with river levels improving, but remaining high.
The wet pattern looks to continue into next week with additional
rounds of rain possible.

For the most up to date forecasts and flood products, visit:
weather.gov/afg and weather.gov/aprfc

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
There will be scattered showers over the interior with some rain or
snow showers over the North Slope on Friday. There will finally
be a dry period for the West Coast overnight into Friday. However,
another low will begin to approach the West Coast with the YK
Delta being the first to see rain as early as late Friday morning.
Unfortunately for the West Coast, this low will be slow moving
and drop an additional 0.25-0.75" through the weekend. That low
will work its way into the Interior by Saturday morning in the
form of scattered rain showers again and persist through Monday.

-Lewis

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ813-814-819-828-831.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-802-811>813-850-853-859.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803-805-814-852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-860-861.
&&

$$

Stokes