507
FXAK69 PAFG 062341 AAA
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
341 PM AKDT Thu Aug 6 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system over the Seward Peninsula will continue to
shower most of the West Coast and Western Interior, through the
rest of today, before shifting north to the western Brooks Range
on Friday. Thunderstorm chances continue across the Central and
Eastern Interior today, shifting to the Al-Can boarder on Friday.
A frontal system will continue to push east, bringing better
chances for showers across the Central Interior by early Friday
morning. Another low will begin to shift SE from Siberia early
Saturday morning, bringing another round of widespread rain to the
southern half of the West Coast through the end of the weekend.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected across
  the Eastern Interior Thursday afternoon. Thunderstorm coverage
  will be confined to the Al-Can boarder on Friday with
  approaching front.

- Warm and dry conditions continue across the Interior today,
  followed by a slight cooling trend as a front moves east across
  the state.

- Isolated showers possible across portions of the Interior
  through the middle parts of the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Widespread showers continuing across the West Coast through
  Thursday night. Heaviest amounts will be on south-facing
  slopes along the western Brooks Range, Nulato Hills, and
  southern Seward Peninsula.

- An additional round of precipitation expected starting Saturday
  for the southern half of the West Coast with an approaching low
  from Siberia. Total accumulation with this system expected to
  be between 0.2" and 0.5"

- Gradual warming trend expected throughout the weekend with
  higher pressure building up across portions of the state.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Above seasonable normal temperatures will continue across the
  North Slope through the rest of Thursday. The Arctic Plains is
  under a Heat Advisory and will be in the mid 70s and even near
  80 today. A slight cooling trend expected by the Friday.

- Scattered showers expected to continue across the western Brooks
  Range through today. Isolated thunderstorm chances continue
  through the afternoon across the Arctic Plains and Eastern
  Brooks Range. Precipitation coverage and thunderstorm potential
  spreads farther east on Friday.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
The overall forecast remains unchanged as models are starting to
show better agreement. Satellite imagery from this afternoon shows
the 540 decameter low starting to shift NE across the North
Slope. Meanwhile, the associated N-S oriented front continues to
slowly shift east from the Western Interior and act as the major
player for today`s weather.

For the rest of today, wetting rains are expected to continue
across much of Western Alaska. Out east, a shortwave is expected
to move north along the Al-Can boarder providing the Eastern
Interior with isolated to scattered chances for thunderstorms. In
regards to location, the greatest confidence is for them to occur
across the Yukon Flats down to Fortymile Country. With the front
still expected to be farther out to the west at this time, most of
these storms will be diurnally and terrain driven. Looking over
the northern portion of the Central Interior and across the Brooks
Range, some pre-frontal convection may be possible Thursday
afternoon which may spark up a few isolated thunderstorms as well.

By Friday morning, the low that was previously over the Seward
Peninsula will be gradually weakening and continuing to move NE
across the western North Slope. With this, there should be a drop
in the gusty winds previously seen across the West Coast/Western
Interior over the past couple of days. The front will continue to
push east through Friday afternoon which will provide more
scattered chances for showers across the Interior. Over the
Eastern Interior and eastern Brooks Range, temperatures are still
expected to remain warm out ahead of the front. This will allow
for another round of diurnally driven thunderstorms Friday
afternoon. Meanwhile, another low will begin to push SE out of
Siberia Friday afternoon/evening. This is the feature that is
helping shift the low, that was previously over the Seward
Peninsula, farther E/NE.

As Saturday rolls around, models are coming into better agreement
for the low to move across the North Slope and toward the Beaufort
Sea. This will help set up Westerly flow will set up aloft across
much of the state, which may allow for a weak ridge to start
building in over SE Alaska. Some different scenarios may play out
depending on how far north the low is able to push into the
Beaufort. There is a strong polar low over the North Pole that it
is expected to get wrapped into. If models trend in this
direction, it could set up for another warming/drying pattern for
the week to come as the higher pressure will be able to shift
farther north. More on this in the Extended Forecast. Bringing
attention back to the low moving SE from Siberia, models are in
good agreement with the track of this low to remain west of St.
Lawrence Island and Nunivak Island as it moves toward the
Aleutians. This is expected to bring another round of widespread
rainfall for the southern half of the West Coast starting Saturday
morning. Accumulations with this system are expected to be
between 0.2" and 0.5" through Sunday morning, which is lower from
the previous system.

By the end of the weekend, high pressure will have built in over
the southern half of the state. In addition, another ridge will be
building up over the Chukchi. Some models are showing the
potential for these to merge by the start of next week, which is
something that will be monitored over the next several model
runs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm southerly Chinook flow continues ahead of a frontal boundary
tracking eastward across the interior associated with a low pressure
moving from the West Coast today to the Beaufort Sea by Saturday
morning. Thunderstorms are developing ahead of the frontal boundary
this afternoon along a line roughly between Eagle and Wiseman with
continued development through this evening. The higher terrain of
the Fortymile area near Eagle and the central Brooks Range near the
Dalton Highway may focus more scattered activity. A few
thunderstorms may also develop over the eastern Alaska Range and
track north across the upper Tanana Valley where RH values are
already dropping to around 30% this afternoon. Increased cloud cover
on Friday shifts the primary thunderstorm threat east over Canada,
but a few thunderstorms cant be ruled out along the border.

The coastal low pressure brings widespread wetting rains to much of
the West Coast and Western Interior through Friday morning. As this
low pressure system tracks northeast, more westerly flow behind the
cool front brings a much more humid and cloudy air mass across the
interior. These clouds prevent daytime heating with cooler
temperatures and higher min RH values expected on Friday and
Saturday. The upper Tanana Valley is the exception where a later
frontal arrival may delay clouds and cooler temps until Saturday and
Sunday. Also of note for the Upper Tanana is northwest winds may
become gusty behind the front Friday afternoon and may increase
again Saturday afternoon, depending on frontal positioning. Ridging
builds later this weekend allowing for decreasing clouds, warming
temps, and lower RH values going into early next week.

Another low pressure tracks southeast across the Bering this weekend
bring another round of wetting rains, mainly along and south of the
Seward Peninsula and across the YK-Delta for Saturday into Sunday.
This system drops south into the Gulf of Alaska early next week with
easterly flow developing across the interior. As a result,
thunderstorm potential appears to return and expand westward across
portions of the interior during the early to middle portions of next
week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The heavy rainfall expected over the southern portions of the
western Brooks Range have resulted in accumulations equivalent to
a 2 to 5 year return interval. While flooding is not expected at
this time, there will be significant rises in smaller streams and
rivers and a slow to moderate rise on the Kobuk River.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...For Sunday through Wednesday
At the start of the extended period, a Siberian low has made its
way south towards the Alaska Peninsula, continuing to support
isolated to scattered showers across portions of the southern
Seward Peninsula and YK Delta. Behind this system, broad upper
level ridging builds in over the state from the north and west,
keeping conditions fairly warm and dry across Northern Alaska
through the beginning of the week. By Tuesday, the pattern becomes
a bit more uncertain as another low tries to move south from
Siberia. Right now, models are hinting at this system being fairly
weak with not as much moisture support as with the previous
systems. However, as this low tracks further south, it merges with
a low lingering just south of the Aleutian Islands and starts to
create weak southeasterly flow over the state. With this set up,
we can expect to see light isolated to scattered showers over much
of Northern Alaska, with thunderstorm chances gradually returning
to portions of the Western Interior by midweek. The exact
location of these showers and thunderstorms are still uncertain
right now as they will be highly dependent on how, when, and where
these lows merge, but overall impacts look to remain low.

Coastal Hazard Potential...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Heat Advisory for AKZ806-808.
PK...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS............Twombly
KEY MESSAGES........Twombly
FORECAST ANALYSIS...Twombly
FIRE WEATHER........Kutta
HYDROLOGY...........Twombly
EXTENDED............Santiago