614
FXAK69 PAFG 222233
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
133 PM AKST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Snowfall continues across a large portion of the Interior as well
as up along portions of the North Slope this evening and into
early Sunday before eventually coming to an end. Much colder
temperatures are then set to move southwards from the Arctic coast
into the interior and along the West Coast for the first part of
next week. Storminess will begin to pick up over the West Coast
by late next week with some of that activity entering the Interior
by next weekend.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Snow tapers off this evening and overnight. A few showers
  remain early Sunday. Storm total snow is listed below (Friday
  through Sunday).
- 6 to 12 inches of heavy snow in the White Mountains and
   elevated terrain south of the Yukon Flats. A Winter Storm
   Warning has been issued for heavy snow. The heaviest snow will
   be north and east of Eagle Summit.
- 2 to 4 inches in Fairbanks area (including Eielson), though
   areas beneath heavier bands of snow could see 6+" similar to
   the White Mountains.
- 1 to 3 inches from Delta to Nenana north/west to Bettles.
- Little to no snow accumulations from Tok south/east.

- Colder and drier conditions return next week.
- Temperatures fall to highs in the low teens to single digits
   and lows in the negative teens to single digits by Tuesday.

- Clouds clear late Sunday into Monday. Temperatures decrease
  further in valley locations under clear skies as stronger
  temperature inversions develop.

- Increasing northeast winds Monday through next week. Areas of
  blowing snow and low visibility with difficult travel conditions
  over Dalton, Elliott, and Steese Highway Summits next week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Isolated snow showers diminishing overnight. Accumulations less
  than an inch.

- North-northwesterly winds along the coast diminish overnight as
  well.

- Colder and drier conditions return next week.
- Temperatures fall from the 20s to single digits over the
   weekend to the teens and single digits by Monday.
- Western Interior Valleys lows fall to the negative single
   digits late Sunday into Monday.

- Winds shift east-northeast along the West Coast Sunday into
  Monday and increase Monday into Wednesday. Easterly wind gusts
  20 to 30 mph by Wednesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Areas of light snow continue on the Slope, Beaufort Sea Coast
  and in the Brooks Range this weekend. Snow accumulations will be
  around 1 to 3 inches with a couple of spots near 4 inches in
  the Eastern Brooks Range and near Kaktovik through Sunday.

- Colder and drier conditions return next week.
- Temperatures fall from the teens to single digits to the single
   digits to near 0 Monday along the coast.
- In the Brooks Range Valleys temperatures fall into the negative
   teens and possibly the negative 20s.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Troughing continues across Alaska with upper low circulations
located across the northern Gulf and just east of the Brooks Range
over the far northern Yukon Territory of Canada. The circulation
over the Yukon has been the dominant player as far as Interior
and North Slope snow production has been concerned the past 24
hours or so. Meanwhile upper ridging is in place across the Bering
and extending north towards the Chukchi Sea.

As we go forward models are generally in good agreement with
regards to the upper trough breaking down and a strong ridge
building north through the Chukchi and into the Beaufort as a
building 1040 mb surface high prepares to set up residence along
the Arctic coastline for the start of next week. The effects on
our sensible weather will be a general downward trend in snowfall
coverage and intensity through this evening and overnight with
cold air advection working south through the North Slope and
Brooks Range Sunday, eventually engulfing much of the Interior by
Monday and Tuesday. As skies clear next week, temps should tumble
with Interior lows nearing -20 F in the colder spots and highs in
the lower single digits to near zero.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Tuesday through next Saturday.

At the start of the extended forecast period, Tuesday, a strong
upper level Arctic high pressure around 552 decameters sits over
the Chukchi Sea and a messy upper level low around 515 decameters
spins south of the Aleutians which will slowly weaken through the
week. These two features interact to generate gusty easterly flow
across the Interior and West Coast. Areas that recently received
snowfall may be vulnerable to periods of reduced visibility due to
blowing snow. This high brings colder, drier, and clearer
conditions through much of next week to the region.

Later next week, another low moves from the west across the North
Pacific and phases with the weakening low south of the Aleutians
Thursday. This creates a very amplified pattern Friday into next
weekend with a strong upper level low in the North Pacific and a
developing ridge in the northeastern Pacific stretching towards
the Arctic high which will have moved slowly east towards the
Eastern Arctic Coast. This highly amplified pattern could produce
a strong atmospheric river transporting moisture from as far south
as 20N towards Alaska. If that develops, then significantly
warmer and wetter conditions are possible across Northern Alaska
potentially bringing large amounts of wintry mix and rain to areas
of the Interior. Confidence is still low on the exact details of
this feature due to how far out it is, but there is good run to
run consistency in the models and relatively good ensemble
agreement. The biggest area of potential uncertainty is in how
this next low phases with the previous one and where exactly an
atmospheric river could develop. Further west solutions would be
more likely to bring rain to the Interior, but it is still unclear
on how this system will develop. Regardless it will still be
strong enough to bring significant warming and much more moisture
to the state.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ833-834.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ838-842.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801-804>806-852-853.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-808-810-855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-853-856.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817-851.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ850-857-858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854.
&&

$$

Laney