724
FXAK69 PAFG 261354
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
554 AM AKDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- High pressure overhead will continue to bring clearer skies,
  drier conditions, & warmer temperatures through the weekend.

- Afternoon highs will climb to the mid 40s to upper 50s
  Saturday and Sunday, as overnight lows remain cooler, holding
  in the 20s and 30s with locally colder spots in the teens.

- Temperatures begin a cooling trend on Monday, with afternoon
  highs dropping into the 30s and 40s.

- A Wind Advisory remains in effect through Saturday night for
  strong southerly winds through the Alaska Range passes with
  gusts peaking at around 60 to 65 mph.

- Rain & high elevation snow chances will return to the Alaska
  Range today through the weekend west of the Tok Cutoff.
  Isolated rain/snow chances are expected to return to the rest
  of the Interior Monday into Tuesday, as temperatures begin to
  trend cooler.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- As a strong low in the Bering Sea moves eastward over the
  weekend, it will gradually weaken as the low center moves
  onshore around the Bristol Bay and Kuskokwim Bay region late
  Saturday. This track will support another round of scattered
  showers & continued breezy winds across Southwest Alaska with
  isolated showers farther north.

- Highs will hold through the weekend in the 40s to mid 50s
  with lows in the 30s/40s. Rain chances will expand early next
  week farther east into the Western Interior, as temperatures
  begin to trend cooler.

- Winds will shift to being out of the north on Sunday, with
  gusts around 30 to 45 mph continuing along the West Coast and
  Bering Strait area through midweek next week. As another low
  moves South of the area.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- High pressure overhead will continue to bring clearer skies, dry
conditions, & warmer temperatures through the weekend with isolated
showers possible across the Western Arctic Coast & Western Brooks
Range today into Saturday.

- Winds will increase across the Arctic Coast Sunday into Monday,
with gusts to around 30 to 45 mph out of the north expected through
Tuesday.

- Rain/snow chances will increase Sunday onwards to encompass
  all of the North Slope and Brooks Range, as temperatures begin
  to trend cooler. Any snowfall accumulations look to remain
  light, around 1-2 inches at elevation.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...

A low tracking across the southwest interior through the weekend
will bring periods of rain and winds for areas south of the Nulato
Hills, along with chances for showers along the North Slope and the
West Coast as moisture is transported down south. As the low
moves east through the Gulf of Alaska Monday and Tuesday, colder
temperatures and isolated snow showers will spread east across
the central and eastern interior. A polar front arriving the
second half of the week brings another chance for snow across
the North slope. What snow does fall will be light in nature,
with only minor snow accumulations expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

The big story for the next few days is the large occluded low
currently over the SW interior. Satellite imagery as of the time
of writing shows this storm along the western flank of a broad
area of troughing which extends over most of the state, barring
the eastern interior of our area where a ridge is clinging to
life. A strong shortwave along the trough`s southeastern flank
is currently racing through the Gulf of Alaska, and will sweep
through Southern Alaska and the Southeast Panhandle before
sending a decaying frontal band north past the Alaska Range late
in the weekend. Fortunately, downsloping winds will stand in
the way of any precipitation from organizing along this
vorticity band until Monday. Hot on the heels of the shortwave,
the initial low previously mentioned is approaching the SW AK
interior. In recent days, guidance has backed off on the
strength of this system, as a complex series of phasing events
with others lows and tropical moisture in the vicinity have kept
it from deepening as much as prognostic reasoning had
previously anticipated. Between the limits on its anticipated
intensity and a track that will take its strongest winds south
of the area, am not expecting anything in the way of coastal
impacts through the remainder of the weekend. Instead the main
impacts will be largely limited to gusty winds and along the
coast, within the AK range (where wind advisories are currently
in effect), and periods of rain for the the Western interior
south of the Seward Peninsula. Expect most of the central and
eastern interior to remain dry through the weekend as
downsloping southerly winds along the low`s eastern flank
prevent moisture from reaching beyond the Alaska Range.

Through the latter half of the weekend, the aforementioned low
bring a steady supply of cooler air into the western half of
Alaska as cold air advection brings an early season arctic
airmass racing out of the north and into the state. Along with
this airmass, a shortwave moving down from the Beaufort Sea will
bring light snow to the western half of the North Slope and the
Brooks Range by late in the weekend. Through Monday, the low
will move East into the Gulf of Alaska, allowing the cold air
advection to advance into the rest of the Interior and bringing
an end to the unseasonably warm temperatures. This will also
open the door for colder air to return to the eastern half of
Alaska, with high temperatures dropping back down into the 40s.
Some moisture will also slip inland, and with the remains of
the old frontal boundary draped across the interior serving as
dynamic support, provide the impetus for isolated rain and snow
showers for the central and eastern interior. Another shortwave
arriving from the North will also provide periods of light snow
for the North Slope. Do not expect anything more than minor snow
accumulations at this time, with an inch or two through the
first half of the week possible for parts of the North Slope and
the Brooks Range.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

A broad troughing pattern established across Northern Alaska will
bring general northwesterly flow and cold air advection, driving a
widespread cooling trend that drops daytime highs into the 30s and
40s and overnight lows into the 20s and 30s for most areas south of
the Brooks Range through the end of the week. Farther north, daytime
highs will remain in the 20s and 30s, while nighttime lows fall into
the teens and 20s across the North Slope. A low pressure system
shifting northward in the Gulf of Alaska will draw moisture into the
Interior, where easterly shortwaves rotating counterclockwise around
the low will bring chances of isolated showers midweek. Cooler
temperatures will increase the likelihood of wintry precipitation,
with lower Interior elevations seeing potential rain/snow mixes or
nocturnal transitions to snow as low temperatures fall to near or
below freezing, though total snow accumulations are expected to be
light. Another round of energy sweeping across the northwest Arctic
Coast will bring rain and snow chances to the North Slope and Seward
Peninsula through midweek. As this system drives southward along the
Chukchi Sea coast through the Bering Strait and to St. Lawrence
Island, tightening pressure gradients will produce winds gusting to
45 mph Tuesday into Wednesday, before conditions gradually settle
heading toward the end of the week.


Coastal Hazard Potential...No coastal hazards are expected for
our area. A low to the south is primarily impacting the
Anchorage area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures through the weekend reach into the
50s, with lows reaching down into the 20s for the Upper Tanana
Valley and the Forty-Mile Country. Early next week, high
temperatures drop back down into the 40s.

Minimum RH values dip down to 35 to 45 percent through the
weekend before moisture moves in from the west, and they
increase from 50 to 70 percent for Monday and Tuesday.

Some isolated rain and snow showers are possible beginning early
next week, though do not expect any significant precipitation from
these.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...No hydrology concerns are anticipated.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ847.
     Wind Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ849.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ804-
     852.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ805.
&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...SPANN
SYNOPSIS...SPANN
SHORT TERM...SPANN
LONG TERM...SATCHER
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...SPANN
FIRE WEATHER...SPANN
HYDROLOGY...SPANN