515
FXAK69 PAFG 162320
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
320 PM AKDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Remnant energy from a weakening system in the Gulf will get drawn
north over the Interior through the weekend. This will bring
generally light precipitation to the interior with a rain/snow mix
initially which will slowly transition to mainly light snow by
the weekend. Meanwhile a disturbance along the west coast will
bring additional rain and snow to western parts of the region
Friday through the weekend. Mainly dry and calm conditions should
prevail for the start of next week as colder conditions become
established area wide.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Periods Light snow is expected over the foothills of the Alaska
  Range and higher terrain north and east of Fairbanks which will
  continue into Sunday. Light rain or rain snow mix is expected
  across valley locations through Friday with a transition to all
  snow by Friday night. Heaviest snow amounts are expected near
  Healy and across higher terrain north and east of Fairbanks.
  Any daytime melting of snow will likely refreeze over night as
  temperatures drop below freezing.

- Colder temperatures return early next week with highs struggling
  to reach freezing and low temperatures dropping into the 20s
  and teens.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Additional moisture returns overnight from the south. Locations
  along the West Coast especially in the YK Delta will see a rain
  or rain snow mix with little or no snow while the rest of the
  West Coast and Western Interior receive 1 to 2 inches of snow
  through Sunday.

- Winds from the West or Northwest in the 15 to 25 mph range will
  occur along the YK Delta Coast through Friday. Water levels in
  the YK Delta will rise 1 to 1.5 ft above the normal high tide
  line Friday to Sunday.

- Colder temperatures return early next week with highs in the mid
  30s and low temperatures dropping into the upper 20s along the
  coast and lower 20s inland.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Snow returns to the Brooks Range and North Slope Friday night
  into Saturday morning. Expect light accumulations generally an
  inch or less along the North Slope and 1 to 3 inches possible in
  scattered parts of the Brooks Range.

- Gusty easterly winds will spread westward across the Arctic
  coastline through tonight. Easterly winds will gust as high as
  35 mph to the east of Utqiagvik.

- Colder temperatures return early next week with highs in the mid
  20s along the coast and lower 20s inland. Low temperatures will
  drop low 20s along the coast and drop into the single digits
  above zero inland and in the Brooks Range.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
The dominant Pacific ridge that resulted in the recent series of
coastal storms along the west coast has weakened and shifted
south. In it`s place a fairly strong Arctic trough has taken shape
over Siberia and will be the dominant factor in our weather going
forward for several days. The active storm track is now taking
storm systems from the southern Bering Sea eastwards over the
Aleutians and into the Gulf of Alaska. In the short term, remnant
moisture and energy from a weakening system currently in the Gulf
is expected to be transported north over the Alaska Range and
into the interior tonight and tomorrow. As this happens, northeast
flow will also be bringing colder air south across the region.
The result will be a rain/snow mix this evening giving way to
mainly light snowfall across the interior by Friday. Meanwhile
shortwave energy will manage to track around the Siberian trough
and come ashore across the Yukon Delta area tonight. This will
bring some rain to the immediate coast as well as an increase in
west-northwest winds through the day Friday. As this wave shifts
further east it will encounter colder air over the western
interior and could bring a few inches of snow to the western
interior Friday and Friday night. This same band of snow will then
shift over the central and eastern interior over the weekend
keeping snow chances in the forecast through Sunday. While the
snowfall will be mainly light and intermittent, there is still the
potential for 1 to 3 inches of snow across the interior through
the weekend with locally higher amounts across higher terrain. In
addition this could also result in the first accumulating snowfall
on roadways in the Fairbanks metro area for the season. As such,
a Special Weather Statement has been issued in order to alert the
public to this situation.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
By Sunday another two strong lows move through the North Pacific
towards the Gulf of Alaska. The first stays south of the Aleutians
and reaches into the Gulf of Alaska by Sunday night. The second
moves further north and reaches the southwestern Bering Sea Sunday
night. This second low is expected to move east through the
southern Bering Sea into the Gulf of Alaska by Tuesday evening.
These systems are expected to increase north and northeasterly
winds across the northern half of the state as well as provide
additional moisture for light snow. These lows are still
developing systems and the forecast may change. Confidence has
increased on these lows taking these more southerly tracks and
large impacts are not expected for Northern Alaska.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Winds south of the Bering Strait shift westerly/northwesterly
Friday with gusts up to 30 mph expected. Onshore flow is expected
to raise water levels around 1 to 1.5 feet above the normal high
tide in the Yukon Delta Friday into the weekend.
&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813-859.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ814-815-861.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817-854-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ859.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ860.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ860.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ861.
&&

$$

Laney