865
FXAK69 PAFG 140624 AAA
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
220 PM AKDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...Updated Fire Weather Forecast Discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
Our summer pattern continues as high pressure sits over the
Interior, bringing clearer skies and warmer surface temperatures.
The North Slope continues to warm, melting snow off the Brooks
Range and bringing flood potential to the rivers in the region. A
Heat Advisories have been issued for much of the Interior for
Sunday afternoon and evening, with temperatures reaching as high
as 85F to 89F.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Warming trend continues with temperatures reaching the 80s this
  weekend.

- Isolated thunderstorms are possible today and tomorrow along the
  AlCan Border, then become more widespread Sunday into Monday.
- Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected in the Tanana
   Valley Monday afternoon.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Showers are expected to continue along the West Coast through
  Saturday. High temperatures should remain cool, 50s and 60s, as
  a result.

- 70s are likely in the Western Interior over the weekend,
  reaching the low 80s by Monday afternoon.

- Isolated thunderstorms over the weekend.
- The Western Interior should expect more widely scattered
   thunderstorms Sunday and Monday afternoons.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Temperatures begin to reach the 60s and 70s this weekend in the
  Arctic Plain, with 50s and low 60s along the coast.
- The North Slope and Anaktuvuk Pass could see high temperatures
   reach 77F Sunday afternoon/evening.

- Isolated thunderstorms in the Western Brooks Range are possible
  Sunday and Monday afternoon.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A high pressure system centered over the Northern Yukon builds and
strengthens over most of Interior Alaska by Saturday afternoon. A
shortwave associated with this system moves into our area by
Sunday afternoon, strengthening our thunderstorm chances,
especially in the Western Interior. This system is also increasing
our surface temperatures, warming quickly from our previously
below-normal trend. Meanwhile, the low pressure system that has
been bringing in rain for the last few days along the West Coast
begins to back off by Sunday, decreasing precipitation chances in
that region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Updated at 1024 PM AKDT Fri June 13 2025

A significant and critical fire weather pattern develops this
weekend and early next week as a blocking high aloft forms over the
Mainland. Temps will warm well above seasonal norms into the mid to
upper 80s for the lower elevation valleys Sun through Tue,
accompanied by min RH into the upper teens and low 20s. Some spots
may approach 90 Mon and Tue and possibly into the later week. Winds
are increasing to 10 to 15 mph over the Yukon Flats and White Mtns
and possibly into the S Interior Mon, from the northeast. Fire
weather watches may be required for hot, dry, windy conditions. We
will continue to evaluate.

The other big story will be several days of significant
thunderstorms as a "ring of fire" pattern develops. Isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms are expected this weekend with
scattered to numerous thunderstorms Mon and Tue across parts of the
Western and Southern Interior along the periphery of the upper high
with an easterly flow aloft. The possibility of scattered
thunderstorms over the E Interior increases middle of next week as
the high aloft shifts east.

Updated at 1024 PM

- Ahsenmacher


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flooding is likely across portions of the North Slope due to an
unusually deep and persistent late-season snowpack combined with a
sharp and prolonged warming trend through next week. A rapid
onset of snowmelt has begun as temperatures have warmed into the
50`s and 60`s over the past couple of days across the North Slope
and are expected to remain well above average through the middle
of next week. River levels have begun to rise and will likely
crest early next week. Ice has begun to breakup on the upper part
of the Sag River on Thursday with DOT reporting water over a
portion of the Dalton Highway near MP 323. Reports also show that
the Colville River is beginning to breakup, though no impacts have
been reported yet. Intact ice remains on many of the larger
rivers, and the sudden influx of snowmelt runoff could lead to ice
jam formation. These jams can cause sudden and severe rises in
water levels, posing a significant threat to roads or other
infrastructure near the affected waterways.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Upper level ridging will persist through the end of next week with
above normal temperatures, thunderstorms and low min RHs. The West
Coast will be drying out after this weekend and remain mostly dry
outside of some afternoon showers and storms. The North Slope will
begin to see some weak northerly flow which will keep their
temperatures on the cooler side, especially along the immediate
coastline.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ804>806-808>810.
     Heat Advisory for AKZ833>835-838>846.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-806-817-852>854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Gale Warning for PKZ850.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
&&

$$

Bianco/Ellis