514
FXAK69 PAFG 062137
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
137 PM AKDT Wed May 6 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and dry conditions will prevail for the next several days
across Western Alaska while clouds and occasional light showers
prevail elsewhere. As a system enters the Bering over the weekend,
warmer conditions will return to most areas along with slight
chances for rain/snow showers south of the Brooks Range. Meanwhile
along the North Slope a cold high pressure system over the
Beaufort will help maintain mainly dry but chilly conditions.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Scattered rain/snow in the Southern and Eastern Interior with
  potential for a shift to snow overnight, especially at higher
  elevations. Minimal snowfall accumulations are expected.

- Cooler temps expected through Saturday, likely only reaching
  the mid/upper 40s through Thursday. Similarly, low temperatures
  will cool into the low 30s, allowing for some patchy areas of
  frost to develop overnight.

- Winds across the Interior will be westerly with occasional gusts
  up to 20 mph through tonight. Winds become light and
  northeasterly Thursday before restrengthening on Friday.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A cool, dry air mass will settle over the western half of the
  state, resulting in cooler temperatures through the weekend.
  High temperatures will struggle to reach the 40s in the Western
  Interior through Thursday and will be colder along the coast.
  Lows will range from the upper teens across the Seward Pen and
  Kotzebue Sound to the low 20s in the Western Interior.

- North/northwest winds continue to strengthen along the Northwest
  Arctic Coast and Kotzebue Sound. Strong northerly winds begin to
  develop through the Bering Strait Thursday, dropping slightly
  overnight Thursday night before restrengthening again Friday
  with gusts up to 25 mph through the Strait.

- Low stratus clouds remain along parts of the coast and areas of
  low clouds will likely persist through Thursday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Snow showers continue in the Central/Eastern Brooks Range and
  across the Eastern Arctic Coast through Thursday. Additional
  snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches are possible on the eastern
  half of the North Slope by the end of the day Thursday.

- Westerly winds gusting up to 40 mph will significantly reduce
  visibility east of Point Thomson with similar conditions to a
  lesser extent farther west along the coast through this evening.

- Conditions begin to clear along the North Slope as high pressure
  descends from the Arctic on Thursday.

- North to northeast winds, at times gusty, will develop Thursday
  evening and strengthen gradually through Saturday morning. There
  may be enhanced northerly gap winds trough Central Brooks Range
  Passes on Friday with gusts up to 30 mph.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Upper troughing continues across most of Alaska with ridging west
over the Bering region. This setup continues to produce a cold and
dry northerly flow along the West Coast while southerly flow
aloft continues to the east. As for sensible weather at the
surface, showers continue to be scattered over the central and
eastern Interior as weak shortwaves track north. This trend
should continue for the next few days as a cold core upper low
drops south from the western Brooks Range this afternoon towards
the Yukon Delta region over the weekend. This will likely keep
much of the region on the cooler side, not only under the low
itself, but to the east where cloud cover and occasional light
showers are expected to continue.

Meanwhile high pressure over the Arctic ocean will drop towards
the North Slope coast as a surface low shifts east. This has
allowed for increased westerly flow along the coast due to the
resulting gradient. Somewhat lighter winds should be in place
along the coast Thursday as the high continues to settle in.
However the gradient will begin to increase over the Brooks Range
at the same time, as a strong surface low tracks into the Gulf of
Alaska. This pattern will also allow for a more easterly flow
pattern to become established across the Interior allowing for a
bump in temperatures over the weekend and into next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
General troughiness across the state will continue to allow for
isolated precipitation chances across the Interior. Temperatures
are expected remain on the cooler side as a weak cold front
continues to progress eastward across the lower portion of the
Interior. With the passage of the front, pressure gradients are
expected to lighten, resulting in a widespread drop in wind
speeds. For this afternoon, a slight chance for isolated
thunderstorms are possible from the Upper Tanana to areas around
Eagle. With several of the previous model runs, There has been
consistency in lower LI`s and CAPE to produce brief pop-up
thunderstorms.

High temperatures across the valleys will be in the mid to upper 50s
through the end of the week. With an upper-level low moving down the
West Coast, this will allow for a gradual increase in temperatures
across the state through the start of the weekend. High temperatures
in the mid 60s could be possible by the end of the weekend for some
areas, especially just north of the AK Range with the downsloping
that will be set up from the position of the upper-level low. Areas
that see a quick warm up, may also see quick drops in RH as well.
All in all, minimum RHs are expected to be between 30 and 40 percent
through the end of the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Breakup continues along the upper Yukon as Eagle broke up earlier
this week and the breakup front could reach Circle as early as
tonight. The exact timing will depend on ice jams forming and
releasing as the breakup front moves down river. Upstream of Eagle
the river continues to breakup. so additional delayed ice runs
will happen there in the next few days.

Elsewhere rivers continued rise with several locations moving
into action stage by Wednesday afternoon. As such river flood
watches have been issued for areas surrounding Eagle, Circle, and
the Tanana for Manly Hot Springs.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Dry and cold northerly flow will continue along the west coast to
start the extended period Sunday. Meanwhile a low in the Gulf
will continue to push light precipitation across the Interior and
up to the western Arctic coastline through Monday. In addition, there
is also a chance for some lightning activity Sunday afternoon
near the Canadian border and along the Alcan.

For the rest of the extended period ensemble model guidance keeps
us in a pattern of low pressure systems moving into Alaska as
high pressure tries to establish itself. This will likely mean
slight chances for scattered showers across the interior will
continue. However the best chances for precipitation and even
more widespread convection will occur Tuesday and Wednesday as a
frontal boundary to shifts northwards across the Alaska Range and
into the Interior. This could also result in another round of
strong winds for the Alaska Range passes next week as well.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ835.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ805.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ858.
&&

$$

Laney/Twombly-Fire WX