354
FXAK69 PAFG 111424
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
624 AM AKDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Overall, this week will continue to be quite a bit
warmer, clearer, & drier with winds on the lighter side as general
high pressure ridging will be over our entire area of
responsibility. Also, some scattered showers & isolated afternoon &
evening thunderstorms look to pop-up over the Western Interior, near
the West Coast, over the western Brooks Range, & the western North
Slope starting Tuesday afternoon/evening through late week from weak
shortwaves riding northward between an area of low pressure pretty
far to the west over the Siberia / Bering Sea area sending weak
waves of vorticity & moisture that ride northward on the western
side of the ridge that will be poised over the region & ample
daytime heating all providing mechanisms for lift. High temperatures
will climb into the 70s & 80s, generally the highest in the valleys
& away from large bodies of water. Temperatures will continue to
rise throughout the rest of the week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Things stay dry with temperatures warm steadily through the week
with highs climbing through the 70s to the low 80s by Thursday,
continuing into the weekend. Mostly clear skies allow low temps to
fall into the 50s each night.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- High pressure results in mostly sunny skies and drier weather with
high temperatures approaching 70 along the coast and mid 70s to
around 80 across the Western Interior.

- Afternoon and evening shower & isolated thunderstorm chances
return Tuesday afternoon and especially Wednesday before starting to
go into a diminishing trend as the thunderstorm chances shift
northward Thursday afternoon/evening. The higher thunderstorm
chances generally shift from south to north during this time frame.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Highs range from near 50 over the Eastern Arctic Coast to the  mid
70s near Umiat by Wednesday when warm air advects over the
area & southerly downslope flow develops north of the Brooks Range.

- The period starts out with diminished chances for rain showers.
Across the western areas, increased chances for scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are possible Wednesday evening into the
late work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tuesday through Thursday Night/...There is general
lower pressure stretching from Siberia through the Bering Sea & to
the western Gulf with 2 low centers, 1 over Siberia & another over
the NW Gulf of Alaska, & a ridge of high pressure over the state of
Alaska. A general clearing, warming, & drying trend takes place over
the entire area as the ridge of high pressure generally dominates
through the period.

Light winds are in store over the region as the pressure gradient
remains rather relaxed. There really isn`t a risk for any gap winds
to develop through the AK Range through the entire week as there
isn`t enough of a southerly component to the pressure gradient &
upper-level support is not there for it.

High temperatures are expected to warm to the mid-70s into the low
80s for the Interior & from the mid-60s to mid-70s for the central &
western North Slope (Arctic Plains) through the short term
forecast period. Areas near the coast will primarily be in the
60s. Warm air advection over the region can easily be seen with
the 850mb model temperature forecast. Warm air advection over the
region can easily be seen through the period with the 850mb model
temperature anomaly forecast being between +3 & +7 deg C over the
region, solidifying our warm temperature forecast. The eastern
North Slope & near the eastern Arctic Coast will be the main
exceptions as they will primarily be in the 40s & 50s for highs as
they will continue to see some clouds, onshore flow, & some light
showers through the short term forecast period around a weakening
low pressure system meandering to their NE.

Weak shortwave troughing moves northward between the aforementioned
general low pressure to the west & the building ridge of high
pressure to the east starting Tuesday afternoon/evening, bringing
afternoon & evening popcorn scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms from a combination of lift from ample daytime heating
& upper level support over the western Interior & near the West
Coast south of the Brooks Range. This will push northward into the
Western Brooks Range & North Slope through Thursday evening. The
support for these showers & thunderstorms is there with more
enhanced support coming for Wednesday & Thursday afternoon & evening
with more 500mb PVA, 700mb enhanced moisture/enhanced PW advecting
over that area, enhanced model CAPE values along with low enough LI
for this to be reasonably possible.

&&

.LONG RANGE.../Friday through Monday Night/...Model consensus looks
to be that lower pressure will remain established over the Bering
Sea region, keeping chances for showers & some isolated
thunderstorms over the west. Besides that, general ridging remains
setup & dominant over the rest of state, continuing to bring with it
the decreased cloudiness, warm SFC temperatures, & dry conditions
across our region with decent warm air advection 850mb temperature
anomalies reaching around +3 to 7 deg C through the entire week,
keeping high temperatures up to between the lower 70s to the low 80s
south of the Brooks Range & into the lower-to-middle 70s for the
inland western 2/3 of the North Slope (Arctic Plains). Eastern
Arctic Coastal areas remain cooler with high temps in the 40s into
the 50s through the end of the forecast period. As for the
chances for scattered showers & isolated thunderstorms though
Saturday for the afternoon into the evening hours, the mid-to-
upper level(700-500mb) vorticity & moisture support will be there,
model CAPE values look to be high enough from daytime heating,
model LI values look to be low enough, & the aforementioned
general low pressure trofing will continue to push shortwaves of
energy around the ridge of high pressure to provide enough lift to
support the continued development of these scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Additionally, winds will continue to
remain on the lighter side through the period over the entire
region as the pressure gradient remains rather relaxed through
the forecast period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Through the work-week, conditions will continue to
warm across the entire forecast area with high temperatures in
the mid-to-upper 70s, getting into the lower 80s for some areas
in the western & eastern Interior. At the same time, high
temperatures will warm into the 60s well into the 70s across the
western North Slope(Arctic Plains), with warmth spreading eastward
as we progress through the work-week, getting into the middle 60s
to around 70 for only into the inland portions of the eastern
third of the North Slope for Wednesday through the end of the
week. Scattered popcorn showers & isolated thunderstorms from the
daytime heating and energy from trofing pushing northward over the
area are possible for the western Interior & westward toward the
west coast for mainly mid-to-late week afternoon & evening hours.
This risk will move into the western Brooks Range & western North
Slope for Thursday afternoon through the evening as the trofing
moves northward. Afternoon minimum RH values will steadily
decrease along with the warming temperatures through the week with
eastern portions of the eastern interior like 40 Mile Country,
Northway, & around the ALCAN HWY (Upper Tanana Valley) dipping to
around 25-30% for later in the workweek. Winds should remain on
the lighter side as the gradient stays lax.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Chambers
KEY MESSAGES...Chambers
SHORT TERM...Chambers
LONG RANGE...Chambers
FIRE WEATHER...Chambers