363
FXAK69 PAFG 312256
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
256 PM AKDT Sun May 31 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Active albeit low-impact weather brings cool and damp conditions
through Monday night before ridging brings sunny and warmer weather
to Northern Alaska on Tuesday through Thursday. Southwest winds
increase through tonight and turn more southerly on Monday before
becoming light and variable Monday night. These southerly winds will
gust up to 35 mph in the valleys and up to 45 mph above 1500 ft this
evening through Monday morning. South winds gusting up to 50 mph are
also expected for the Alaska Range passes. Higher elevation
locations are expected to receive quite a bit of rain this afternoon
through Tuesday with localized amounts around 1 inch in the vicinity
of the Ray Mountains and the south-central Brooks Range.
Thunderstorm potential stays low for the entire forecast period, but
a few strikes are expected near the Alaska Range today and near the
Ogilvie Mountains on Tuesday. Clouds clear out on Tuesday resulting
in a stretch of sunny, warm, and dry weather for Tuesday through
Friday with many locations south of the Brooks Range reaching highs
in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Isolated thunderstorms are occurring further southeast this
afternoon over the Upper Tanana Valley and adjacent highlands as
storms develop over the higher terrain and track easterly.

- Rain is expected across the north-central interior this afternoon
through Monday night with widespread rain amounts around 0.25" near
and north of Fairbanks and locally higher amounts approaching 1"
possible at higher elevations of the Ray Mountains area.

- Southwest winds gusting up to 45 mph at higher elevations and 35
mph in valleys tonight through Monday afternoon. Southerly gap winds
up to 50 mph are also expected through the Alaska Range passes.

- A pattern change begins to sunny skies allows for warmer
temperatures reaching the low to mid 70s over most of the Interior
valleys begins on Tuesday and continues through at least Thursday.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Rain showers with a few embedded thunderstorms develop this
afternoon, especially from Holy Cross northeast to Lake Minchumina.

- Gusty southwest winds are expected this afternoon through Monday
afternoon with gusts potentially upwards of 45 mph above 1500ft and
35 mph in Kuskokwim Valley.

- Light winds and sunny skies return on Tuesday allowing for
  warmer temperatures with highs in the low to mid 70s.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Below average temperatures are expected to persist through Tuesday
on the North Slope with values mostly between 30 and 40 degrees
through Friday.

- Areas of light snow move into the region today with less than 1
inch of snow on the North Slope and up to a few inches for higher
elevations of the northern Brooks Range, including Atigun Pass.

- Gusty southerly winds up to 45 mph and moderate rain are expected
to develop in the southern Brooks Range today and persist through
Monday evening. Rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inches are expected
with localized higher amounts possible.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Sunday night through Tuesday night.

An energetic Arctic 500 mb shortwave dropping southeast across the
North Slope today interacts with a warm front lifting north from a
Gulf of Alaska low through Monday. This phasing interaction results
in an unseasonably cloudy and wet pattern across the central
interior with EFI guidance values >0.95 and a shift of tails up to 2
in the vicinity of the Ray Mountains. Ensemble means indicate
localized 2-day rainfall totals in excess of an inch in the higher
terrain north of Tanana (Ray Mountains). The thunderstorm chances
are highest this afternoon and evening with steadier, more
stratiform rainfall expected on Monday. Thunderstorms are generally
expected to be short-lived today. On the North Slope and above
elevations above about 3000ft in the Brooks Range, temperatures will
be cool enough for precipitation to fall as snow. There may be a few
inches of slushy snow accumulations at Atigun Pass with less than an
inch across the North Slope.

In addition to rainfall, southwesterly winds increase along and
south of the warm front with valley locations gusting up to 35 mph.
The Alaska Range passes may gust up to 50 mph and higher elevations
across the central interior including the Steese Highway and White
Mountain summits are forecast to gust to around 40 mph. Winds become
light and variable Monday night and Tuesday as ridging builds
eastward from Siberia, shifting the remnant Arctic low east into
Canada. This allows for clearing skies on Tuesday and sunshine on
the long June days is forecast to allow temperatures to warm to
around 70F across most of the interior. The only possible exception
is near the AlCan border east of Fork Yukon where an afternoon
shower or thunderstorm is possible. These warm, dry, and sunny
conditions are expected to continue through at least Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The Western Brooks Range and adjacent Kobuk Valley have been the
driest areas so far this spring and there don`t appear to be any
substantial rain chances during this forecast period. In that area
breezy west winds continue through this evening ahead of a period of
light and variable winds expected on Monday with southerly winds
increasing on Tuesday ahead of the next cool front. Breezy north to
northwest winds are expected behind the front on Wednesday and
Thursday.

Despite plenty of recent rainfall another area of potential concern
is the Upper Tanana and Yukon Valleys, especially in the vicinity of
Isabel Pass. Southerly winds gust up to around 50 mph through Isabel
Pass continue into Monday before diminishing during the afternoon
and evening. These winds stay south of Delta Junction until Monday
morning then diminish for the entire pass by Monday evening.
Relative humidity values drop to around 25% for Delta Junction and
down to around 20% near Eagle and Northway. Marginal RFW conditions
can`t be ruled out, but it`s a low confidence/low probability
potential at this time.

Across the remainder of the interior, a wet and cloudy pattern
prevails in most places through Monday before clouds and rain
chances diminish on Tuesday. Gusty southwest winds accompany these
rain chances, especially at higher elevations, but winds also mix
down into the valleys during the afternoon/evening hours. Ridging
builds across the entire interior late Monday into Tuesday resulting
in decreasing winds and sunny skies. This will be the warmest
stretch of weather so far this warm season, with Wednesday being the
warmest day. Light winds support deep mixing to >7 kft and min RH
values dipping below 25% across most interior valleys. A weak cool
front moves through Wednesday night and Thursday results in
decreasing upper level heights and a return to the persistent
troughing pattern we`ve frequently seen this spring.

Thunderstorm chances remain low for most of the forecast period with
the greatest chances this afternoon, generally closer to the Alaska
Range. A few strikes are possible on the periphery of the
precipitation shield on Monday, but a more stratiform/widespread
showery regime limits instability. Lightning chances ramp up again
on Tuesday across the Eastern Yukon Flats and adjacent AlCan border
as the upper level disturbance shifts out of the area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

No changes from the previous hydro forecast discussion.

Sagavanirktok River: Some overflowing is occurring; however, breakup
along the Sag River has not begun yet. High temperatures are
expected to increase to around the mid to upper 30s and even low 40s
on Monday with low temps in the 20s and 30s (north to south).
Tuesday and Wednesday appear to be the warmest days with highs in
the 30s to near 40 along the coast and low 50s towards the northern
Brooks Range. Temperatures will then dip back down later in the
week, exact values are uncertain. Near the Sag River source on the
north Brooks Range, high temperatures could reach the mid 50s from
Monday to Wednesday, with snow levels reaching upwards of 4000 ft.
Again, temperatures look to cool going into the late week but
continue to be above freezing.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
For Thursday through next Sunday.

On Thursday, the warmer temperatures and clear weather provided by
the ridge over Alaska will become moderated by a large arctic low
which meanders southwest from the Canadian Archipelago. The low`s
impact will be felt most immediately on the North Slope, where
maximum temperatures along the coast will struggle to get above
freezing through the rest of the extended. Areas farther south
along the Slope will be warmer, peaking in the 40s to near 50s
near the Brooks Range, but will still drop below freezing
overnight. Smaller features embedded in the low will result in
occasional light precipitation north of the Brooks Range.

South of the Brooks Range, the interaction between the arctic low
and high surface pressure over Siberia will strengthen winds along
the West Coast. In particular, northwest winds into Kotzebue Sound
and north winds off the Brooks Range into the Kobuk Valley will
serve to dry the northwest Interior, which is currently the driest
part of the state and which won`t receive much meaningful
precipitation in the short term. Generally northwesterly winds
across the Northwest Interior and West Coast will varying in
strength through the week as a series of small disturbances track
southeast throughout the extended.

The weakening ridge will allow a low in the Gulf of Alaska to bring
bring slight chances for showers in the southeast Interior Thursday
evening. Chances for precipitation remain low and mostly on the
southern edges of our area as lows traveling east along the
Aleutians and into the Gulf look to stay far enough south to limit
impacts. The combination of a cooler airmass and cloudier
conditions will moderate temperatures back into the 60s in the
Interior.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...None.
&&

$$

Kutta
Troyke - Extended