072
FXAK69 PAFG 012011
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1211 PM AKDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Not much change to the ongoing forecast with rounds of rain
continuing this week in Western Alaska. The Central and Eastern
Interior gets shower chances each day, especially through the day
on Tuesday and again Thursday afternoon into Friday. The Brooks
Range will continue getting walloped by rain with an additional 1
to 2 inches of rain possible through Thursday night. The North
Slope has rain shower chances through the week with the bulk being
towards the Chukchi Sea Coast.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Showers continue for the Interior with the highest chances
  coming tonight through tomorrow morning in the Central and
  Northern Interior.

- More rain showers spread over the area Wednesday PM with
  increasing chances by Thursday afternoon with a soaking rain
  possible in the Eastern Interior Thursday night into Friday.

- Temps stay in the low to mid 60s for most, with upper 60s to
  low 70s in the Eastern Interior.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Rain continuing in the Western Interior with showers along the
  coast through tomorrow afternoon.
- 0.25 to 0.50 inches additional rain in the Interior Valleys.
- 0.10 to 0.25 inches additional along the Coast.
- Up to 1.00 inch in the higher terrain of the Interior.

- Another round of rain moves into southern Interior Wednesday
  morning, to the northern Interior by Wednesday evening.
- Additional 0.50 to 1.00" possible.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- South/southwest winds along the coast will bring high water to
  the Norton Sound and Yukon Delta Coast. This shouldn`t be too
  impactful as we`re mainly expecting 2-4 feet of rise with the
  highest being in Eastern Norton Sound.

- Periods of rain continue in the Brooks Range through Thursday.
- 1 to 2 inches of rain through Thursday.

- Chukchi Sea Coast gets scattered to numerous showers through
  tomorrow with isolated showers possible elsewhere this week.
- 0.15 to 0.50 inches of rain from Utqiagvik to Point Hope
   through Thursday.
- A trace to 0.10 inches elsewhere along the Slope and Coast.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Virtually no change since yesterday with a 588 decameter low in
the Gulf of Alaska and a trough extending from the arctic to the
NPAC. There is a weakening 540 decameter occluded low with a front
over the Western Interior. Waves of moisture will continue to
move along this front in the south/southwest flow through the
week. The front will begin to move east on Tuesday as the weak low
pushes inland. A strengthening 300 mb jet will also being moving
ashore on Tuesday. This coupled with 500 mb shortwaves and 700 mb
moisture will be more than enough to provide rain to much of the
Interior tonight through Tuesday morning. There will be a brief
reprieve with some sunshine Tuesday midday-afternoon as 700 mb
dry air moves in behind the front across much of the Interior.
This won`t last too long as another slug of moisture moves into
the southern, western Interior Wednesday morning and pushes
northward. More rain should be expected Wednesday through Friday
across the Interior. And yes, rain is even possible in the Upper
Tanana Valley Thursday night/Friday.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Warm and dry in the Upper Tanana Valley through Thursday.
Temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s with min RHs as
low as 30% today and 40-50% for the rest of the week. Isolated to
scattered showers are possible from the Fortymile northward
Tuesday morning into the early afternoon, then again Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday. The Upper Tanana Valley will have a
chance for rain Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A variety of flood products remain across the Interior and Brooks
Range. Additional rainfall is likely through Tuesday with up to 1
inches possible in the Brooks Range, and generally 0.25 to 0.50
inches across Western Alaska. There will be very slow improvement
to the current river statuses this week and we expect them to
remain high. Additional waves of rain look likely during the
middle and end of the week as there is no end in site. For the
most updated forecasts and warnings, visit:

weather.gov/afg and weather.gov/aprfc

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
A low will travel Northeast across the West Coast on Thursday, but
should weaken and become scattered showers over the interior on
Friday and some rain or snow showers over the North Slope.  The
highest precipitation totals will be towards the West Coast and the
Southern Brooks Range, where 0.50-1.00 inches is expected. There
will be a dry period for the West Coast overnight into Friday
before another low will begin to approach with the YK Delta being
the first to see rain as early as Friday morning. This low will
bring rain and showers that persist through the weekend and into
next week. Unfortunately for the West Coast, this low will be slow
moving and drop an additional 0.50-1.00 inches.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ813-814-819-828-831.
     High Surf Advisory for AKZ825.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-802-804-805-850-852-853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ809.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
&&

$$

Bianco
Lewis - Extended