527
FXAK69 PAFG 272156
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
156 PM AKDT Tue Oct 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Lows dropping into the the upper teens and lower 20`s tonight
  will refreeze remaining surface moisture and slush, creating
  localized slick travel conditions through Wednesday morning.

- Precipitation returns from the west Wednesday afternoon and
  advances east overnight. A period of light freezing rain mixed
  with snow is possible into Thursday AM before transition to
  rain/snow showers Thursday.

- Strong winds will blow through the Alaska Range Passes
  Wednesday with the potential for localized blowing snow and
  reduced visibility through pass corridors.

- Noticeably warmer Friday with highs potentially near 40
  degrees along with slight chances for rain/snow heading into
  the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Coastal rain and gusty winds continue into Wednesday morning
  as High Surf Advisories remain in effect tonight along much
  of the west coast.

- Heavy snow remain possible across the south slopes of the
  western Brooks Range through Thursday with the heaviest
  accumulations expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

- Elsewhere widespread rain is expected along the coast with a
  rain/snow mix over the western Interior Wednesday into
  Thursday with precip totals of 0.20 to 0.50 inches possible.

- Beyond Thursday: Remnants of Typhoon Champi approach Late
  Thursday and into Friday. A coastal Flood Watch is in effect
  for the Yukon Delta Coast as rising water levels, strong gusty
  wind, and additional precipitation move into the region.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Persistent southerly winds of 15 to 25 mph will keep areas of
  blowing snow in place across the western and central Brooks
  Range through Thursday. Additional snowfall can be expected
  through Thursday morning resulting in localized travel impacts
  over the Dalton Highway Summits as well as Atigun and Howard
  Passes.

- Gusty winds will remain through Wednesday along the Northwest
  Arctic coastline. As winds shift to the southwest Thursday
  localized blowing snow will be possible for both Point Hope
  and Point Lay.

- Unseasonably mild temps (highs in the mid-to-upper 30`s) will
  help maintain slight chances for rain/snow across portions of
  the Arctic coast with the potential for some light freezing
  rain Wednesday night for portions of the Northwest Arctic
  Coast.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Clearing skies across portions of the Interior will allow for
colder temps and a refreeze of surface moisture Tonight into
Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, strong southerly flow remains in
place across the west with coastal rain, high surf, and blowing
snow across portions of the Brooks Range. As a front advances
east Wednesday through Thursday additional rain/snow chances
will push into the Interior along with the potential for strong
gap winds through the Alaska Range passes. By late week the
remnants of Typhoon Champi will allow winds to ramp up again
along the west coast with localized coastal flooding concerns
along the Y-K Delta coast while unseasonably mild air spreads
northwards in advance of the system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An amplified longwave trough anchored over far eastern Russia
and the Bering Sea continues to tap a deep fetch of moisture,
driving higher precipitable water values towards western Alaska.
Downstream, a transient shortwave ridge over the Gulf of Alaska
looks to provide a brief window of subsidence across the
Interior tonight. This ridge will flatten Wednesday as shortwave
energy ejects out of the Bering Sea, dragging a cold front
eastwards across the state through Thursday night.

Under building high pressure aloft tonight, clearing skies and
light winds will foster strong radiational cooling over portions
of the Interior. Boundary layer temps will drop into the upper
teens and lower 20`s triggering a widespread refreeze of
standing moisture and slush, creating slick travel for the
Wednesday morning commute. As the ridge axis shifts east
Wednesday afternoon, robust low-to-mid level warm air advection
will precede the advancing cold front. As a warm nose aloft at
850 mb overrides the shallow cold layer over the valley`s, a
period of light freezing rain or sleet could take shape
Wednesday night over the central Interior lowlands, including
the Fairbanks metro. Any precipitation looks to be light and
will quickly transition to rain and snow showers by Thursday
afternoon as boundary layer mixing increases. Meanwhile, a
tight north-south surface gradient will drive strong cross-
barrier flow through the Alaska Range passes. Southerly gusts to
65 mph through Isabel Pass looks likely Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday morning.

Across the West Coast and Western Interior, persistent southerly
to southwesterly flow ahead of the main trough maintains strong
low level moisture convergence. Orographic lift over the western
Brooks Range will sustain additional snowfall. Thus Winter
Storm Warnings remain in effect in this area through Thursday
afternoon. At lower elevations warmer temperatures will keep
most of the precipitation primarily liquid with overall QPF
values of 0.20 to 0.50 inches. As the surface front moves east
Thursday afternoon a brief lull in the precipitation chances
will set in ahead of the next system that arrives Thursday
night.

By late Thursday night, the extratropical transition of former
Typhoon Champi will be complete as it`s core tracks into the
southern Bering. Although the storms center is expected to
remain south of our region, an expanding wind field will trigger
a surge in easterly to southeasterly coastal winds Thursday
night. Building high surf will initiate rising water levels
along the Yukon Delta Coast ahead of the main precipitation
shield. As such a Coastal Flood Watch has been issued for late
week from Kotlik to Hooper Bay. In addition another round of
strong gap winds through the Alaska Range passes will be
developing late Thursday and into Friday with the potential for
gusts as high as 60 to 70 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ex-typhoon Champi is set to weaken throughout Friday and into
Saturday before moving east into the Gulf of Alaska. The upper level
low (which also weakens, becoming more of a longwave trough by
Saturday), frontal band, and warmer airmass associated with Champi
shifts east into the Interior Friday and Saturday. Precipitation
will primarily fall as rain in Interior valleys on Saturday, though
southerly Chinook flow will ensure that little to no precipitation
makes it to the ground in the Central and Eastern Interior from
Fairbanks east. Weak troughing lingers over the western third of the
state through Sunday afternoon/evening, supporting lingering shower
activity in the region. Snow levels do eventually drop towards the
surface Sunday as the warm airmass associated with Champi moves to
the southeast.

Forecast confidence decreases as we look ahead to next week. There
is a potential for another low pressure system in the Bering early
next week, but as is often the case in the 6-7 day time frame,
forecast confidence is low. One of the features that will affect the
low`s track is a ridge (or lack thereof) over the Eastern
Aleutians/Alaska Peninsula. The ECMWF ensemble solutions favor a
much stronger ridge, which would keep the low in the Central Bering,
at least initially. The GFS ensemble solutions depict this ridge
much weaker, which would keep the low closer to the Aleutians and
well south of the Yukon Delta Coast. We will continue to monitor
this system as it develops.

Coastal Hazard Potential...
As our most recent coastal storm exits to the north, attention
turns to the remnants of Typhoon Champi which looks to track
into the Bering Sea by Thursday morning. With current guidance
placing the storm center just south of Nunivak Island. Broad
coastal flooding concerns across the West Coast remain fairly
limited due to a forecast track that will take the storm to our
our south. The primary exception is Hooper Bay, where model
guidance indicates water levels rising 4 to 6 feet above the
normal high tide line Thursday evening. Elsewhere along exposed
sections of the West Coast shoreline, high surf, gusty winds,
and moderate to at times heavy rainfall can be expected Thursday
into Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Repeated rounds of moderate-to-heavy precipitation will keep
rivers and streams along the west coast and Seward Peninsula
elevated through the week, with the highest hydrologic impacts
focused near Nome. An incoming frontal boundary tapping into an
atmospheric river, followed by the remnants of Typhoon Champi
late in the week, will maintain persistent rain and high-
elevation snow accumulations across western regions.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM AKDT Thursday for AKZ813-814.
     High Surf Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ815-817-
     818-820>822-824-825.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Thursday morning through late Friday
     night for AKZ825.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ840-
     841-844.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM AKDT Thursday for
     AKZ847-849.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ801-806-
     858.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ802-803-
     805-808>810-852-853-855.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ804-
     816-817-851.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM AKDT Wednesday for
     PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Wednesday for
     PKZ806-816-817-854.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ807-811-
     856-857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM AKDT Wednesday for
     PKZ809.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 1 PM AKDT Wednesday for
     PKZ850.
     Gale Warning until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ854.
&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Laney
SYNOPSIS.......Laney
SHORT TERM.....Laney
LONG TERM......Schlezinger
COASTAL........Laney
HYDROLOGY......Laney