871
FXAK69 PAFG 081312
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
512 AM AKDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
An anomalously strong low in the Arctic is bringing a very stout
cold front through Northern Alaska. Moderate snowfall is
continuing in the Brooks Range, where a winter weather advisory
remains in place until 10 PM Monday. Ahead of the cold front
spotty rain showers will continue across the Central and Eastern
Interior. As this front moves southeast today through the
Interior, it will bring a 6 to 8 hour period of moderate
rainfall. Behind this cold front, skies will rapidly clear, and
overnight temperatures will drop. The Northslope and Northwest
Interior will drop in to the 20s, while the Interior temperatures
will drop to the low to mid 30s. Wednesday afternoon temperatures
will warm back up to a few degrees below normal, and are expected
to gradually warm into the weekend.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Scattered showers will continue this morning ahead of a cold
  front later today. As this front moves over, steadier rainfall
  is expected with rain accumulations up to 0.15" possible.

- Behind this cold front, skies will begin to rapidly clear. With
  clear skies and colder arctic air, temperatures will begin to
  bottom out, with lows in the 30s Monday night and Tuesday night.
  Widespread frost is possible across the Tanana Valley, and the
  colder valleys could hit freezing.

- Gusty winds will continue across the Interior today with gusts
  up to 30 mph possible. Areas above 1500 feet could see wind
  gusts up to 45 mph.

- Temperatures will steadily warm starting Wednesday afternoon.
  This warming trend will take us to the low 70s by this weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- A cold front is moving through the region this morning, and will
  bring some scattered rain and snow showers. Behind this front
  conditions will quickly dry out, and skies will clear.

- This cold front is keeping northwesterly winds up to 35 mph
  going through today. These winds will begin to weaken Monday
  night.

- Colder and drier conditions on Tuesday will give way to a
  warming trend Wednesday onwards as temperatures return to more
  seasonable levels with highs rebounding into the 50s/60s/70s
  regionwide.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Light snow is continuing this morning across the Eastern Arctic
  Coastline, with heavier snow in the Brooks Range. In the Brooks
  Range there is a winter weather advisory for heavier snowfall
  with an additional 2 to 4 inches possible today.

- Another round of light snow is possible Monday night for
  Wainwright and Utqiagvik. Accumulations will be light with less
  than inch anticipated.

- Below normal temperatures will continue today with highs around
  30 degrees. Tuesday will see a warming trend that will continue
  to the weekend. Temperatures along the Arctic coast will warm to
  the upper 30s and low 40s, while the Arctic Plains could see 60
  degrees as soon as Thursday.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday Night.
An anomalously strong low in the high Arctic is ejecting a
positively tilted trough into Northern Alaska. For context, that
low is 506 decameters, and in early June that is -3.6 sigma. -3.6
sigma correlates to a roughly 0.03% chance of occurrence when
compared to the mean. As the positively tilted trough gets
ejected southeast towards the Interior, a cold front will
accompany it. This will help to produce isolated to scattered
showers along the front. The Upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile
Country could see an isolated thunderstorm today, as temperatures
will not be affected from the cold front. As the cold front drags
eastward on Tuesday expect those thunderstorm chances to shift
eastward towards the AlCan.

Behind the front skies will quickly clear, and cold and dry
conditions will settle over Northern Alaska. Clear skies will
allow for temperatures to plummet across Northern Alaska Monday
night. In the Tanana Valley, the timing of the clearing skies will
make the difference of having frost or not. Models are in fairly
good agreement that skies will begin to clear around 3 am. This
should be enough time for the inversion to quickly strengthen, and
rapidly drop temperatures. This could allow for a brief period
of frost. In the colder valleys you should expect frost, and
possibly even freezing temperatures.

Tuesday will see the cold front linger across the Eastern
Interior, as it begins to weaken. Tuesday night could see another
round of frost development, but there is less confidence at this
time for it. Much of the colder air that will be in Tanana Valley
Monday night will be forced northward on Tuesday.

High pressure will begin to build over the Bering Sea and Western
Canada on Wednesday. This will bring us quieter and warmer
weather. This pattern shift will be talked about in more detail in
the Extended Forecast Discussion.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cool, windy, and wet day is on tap for much of Interior Alaska
today. Ahead of an approaching cold front, scattered showers are
continuing across the Central and Eastern Interior. These showers
are likely not producing wetting rains, but on southwest facing
slopes there is a higher chance that they could be due to upslope
mechanics. The main area for thunderstorm concerns will be in the
Upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile Country. As the cold front moves
southeast across the Interior, it will bring widespread light
showers. Locations above 1500 feet should see wetting rains with
this storm, but the valleys will struggle to receive wetting
rains. Temperatures will struggle to get into the 60s today, with
the exception of the Upper Tanana and Fortymile Country. The only
areas of concern for RH will be the Upper Tanana Valley, with RH
values in the upper 20s.

Temperatures will continue to drop Tuesday, but with clear skies
and dry air aloft, the minimum RH values will also be dropping.
Near critical RH values are possible across the Western and
Central Interior Valleys. Winds will weaken overnight Monday, so
while RHs will be a concern on Tuesday, the winds should not be.
Looking ahead to the middle of the week, we will see a warming
trend begin and the minimum RH concern slowly shift eastward.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No changes from the previous hydro forecast discussion.

Sagavanirktok, Colville, and Kuparuk Rivers

Below normal temperatures continue across the North Slope, with
APRFC`s breakup map showing some open to mostly open water on the
Sag, Colville, and Kuparuk Rivers outside of immediately along the
Arctic Coast where mostly ice remains in place. Fresh Eyes on Ice
reports indicate that there could be some minor ice jams forming
near the coast, but impacts remain limited at this time and is more
just backing up water.

Colder temperatures will remain in place through early next
week with warming temperatures expected Tuesday onwards. By as soon
as Thursday and Friday, highs in the 50s and 60s will be in place
across the Arctic Plains with 30s/40s along the Arctic Coast. This
will likely accelerate snowmelt and lead to rises on North Slope
rivers. With the recent cooldown and drop overall in most river
levels, this will likely give enough room for new snowmelt to join
the channels and help mitigate any significant flooding concerns at
this time. Stay tuned.

For the latest breakup information, visit weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Thursday through next Monday.
The expansive Arctic upper low will loosen its grip over northern
Alaska on Wednesday as high pressure ridges over Canada and the
Aleutians begin to merge, introducing a notable warming trend that
will support above normal temperatures across western Alaska and
the Interior through the weekend. This will act as a dirty ridge
due to a persistent remnant low lingering in the Gulf, keeping
cloud cover around and fueling daily scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms across the region as minor shortwaves
propagate through the flow. High confidence ensemble guidance
indicates that the primary Canadian ridge will set up along or
just west of the CONUS West Coast late next week. This positioning
leaves room for an anchored low pressure system near the Alaska
Peninsula or western Gulf of Alaska to maintain southerly flow and
enhanced moisture advection into much of mainland Alaska. This
synoptic regime will reinforce a return to summerlike weather
across the Interior with widespread showers, thunderstorms, and a
prolonged period of temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to the
mid 70s, while coastal regions remain cooler with highs in the 50s
and 60s along the West Coast and 40s to 60s from the North Slope
to the Brooks Range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
     Gale Warning for PKZ808.
     Gale Warning for PKZ809.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......Dennis
KEY MESSAGES...Dennis
SHORT TERM.....Dennis
LONG TERM......Satcher
FIRE WEATHER...Dennis
HYDROLOGY......MacKay