545
FXAK69 PAFG 172123
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
123 PM AKDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An active day of storms is expected today, especially in southwest
AK and the AK Range. Storms have already begun to develop and will
continue to fire off through the afternoon and evening. Fairbanks
should remain clear of storms but may get a shower this afternoon.
The higher terrain in the Central and Eastern Interior will have
isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Tomorrow will
be a bit more significant with scattered thunderstorms in the
Western and North-Central Interior. The North Slope will also see
isolated thunderstorms, though they will remain south of the
coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Level Analysis...
The models initialized about 30 meters too strong at 500mb
compared to the 12z RAOBs from Nome, McGrath and Fairbanks. It is
50 meters too strong over Kotzebue and 70 meters too strong in
Utqiagvik. This indicates a stronger low in the Chukchi which is
pinching the Interior ridge faster than anticipated. The
shortwave in SW AK is also a bit faster than models indicating
quicker convective initiation in SW AK this afternoon as this
shortwave moves north/northwest through the Western Interior.

Surface Analysis...
Thunderstorms have already sparked in the AK Range and Eastern
Interior, while thunderstorms are starting to initiate in SW AK
with the shortwave. The ongoing forecast has not changed too much
today as temperatures soar to about 80 degrees in the Interior
with isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected. The North
Slope is under the influence of a low in the Chukchi Sea providing
stratus and areas of fog. Tomorrow, the low will drop south
towards the Bering Strait with stratus and fog for much of the
West Coast as winds turn onshore. In the Interior, thunderstorms
continue tonight north of Galena, then during the day for much of
the Interior with scattered thunderstorms from Galena to Fort
Yukon tomorrow.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Thunderstorms will continue in the AK Range through the day while
we see isolated storms for the remainder of the Interior north and
east of Fairbanks. Temperatures make it to about 80 degrees for
most with low to mid 80s in the Yukon Flats. Tomorrow is the big
day for thunderstorms as there will likely be scattered
thunderstorms from Allakaket to Fort Yukon and Widely scattered
thunderstorms elsewhere besides Fairbanks where it will remain
isolated. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for lightning from
Bettles to the Yukon Flats from noon to 10 PM Tuesday. Wednesday
looks a couple of degrees cooler but isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will still be possible. Thursday continues the
cooling trend by a couple more degrees with isolated storms.
Thursday could bring heavy rain to the Eastern Interior and AK
Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...
The coast will have a beautiful day today with increasing clouds,
some fog and a few rain showers tomorrow as a low provides
onshore flow. The main story will be thunderstorms developing in
the Western Interior. A Red Flag Warning for lightning has been
issued from the Lower Yukon to the North Slopes of the Western AK
Range through 10 PM today. Thunderstorms will move north tonight
with isolated storms continuing through the night from Galena
northward. Tomorrow, expect isolated to scattered storms once
again with the greatest risk being from Galena northward.
Temperatures today will be in the 70s to around 80 degrees in the
Interior and cooling tomorrow to the upper 60s and low 70s.
Wednesday looks to be a bit less active with isolated storms
expected from Galena northward and temperatures largely around 70
degrees.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
The coast will continue to have stratus, areas of fog and a few
rain showers through midweek as a high to the north prolongs the
onshore flow. Otherwise, isolated showers and storms are expected
away from the coast today with widely scattered storms in the
Brooks Range. Storms may continue through the night in the Brooks
Range with widely scattered storms tomorrow as well. On Wednesday,
temperatures will cool a few degrees the thunderstorm risk
remaining mostly in the Brooks Range.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
There is quite a bit of uncertainty moving forward as the ridge
tries to build back into the Eastern Interior. It does look like a
trough moves through the North Slope on Thursday with cooler,
northwest flow on Friday across the Central and Eastern Interior
which would reduce thunderstorm coverage. Then we will be
monitoring the return of a ridge in the Interior this weekend into
next week. At this time, it is tough to say where exactly it will
be oriented, but increased ridging over Northern AK is looking
likely.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag Warnings for lightning have been issued from noon to 10
PM tonight for SW AK from Holy Cross to the North Slopes of the
Western Brooks Range as scattered storms are likely. These storms
will come with frequent lightning, erratic winds and heavy rain
which could help dampen any sparks from lightning but a few fire
starts are possible. Temperatures are expected to be around 80
with min RHs near 30%. In the Central and Eastern Interior, the
main focus will be the AK Range, Brooks Range and higher terrain
while valley locations, including Fairbanks are spared by most
thunderstorms today. Tomorrow, the focus moves north from Galena
to the Yukon Flats as scattered wet thunderstorms with frequent
lightning are looking likely there as well. Temperatures are
expected to be around 80 degrees with min RHs around 25 - 35%. Red
Flag Warnings have been issued from Bettles to the Yukon Flats on
Tuesday from noon to 10PM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River levels on the North Slope have dropped and there is no
immediate concern for flooding. Over the next several days,
thunderstorms with heavy rain are expected in the Brooks Range
which may lead to near bankfull conditions later this week into
the weekend as the water drains out of the Brooks Range along with
any additional snowmelt that occurs.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Red Flag Warning for AKZ930-951-952.
     Red Flag Warning for AKZ931>933.
PK...None.
&&

$$

Bianco