302
FXAK69 PAFG 141141
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
341 AM AKDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Relatively mild, but wet weather is expected for much of the
region through the end of the week. Wednesday is a bit drier in
the Interior before additional light rain reaches the area
Thursday. Northeasterly winds through the Interior and offshore
flow along the West Coast are expected to increase Wednesday, but
speeds remain low enough to keep impacts very minor.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Light rains continue in the southeastern Interior through
  Tuesday. Isolated pockets of fog possible Tuesday morning in
  valleys.

- Breezy northeasterly winds increase Wednesday. Gusts up to 35
  mph possible along Interior summits with gusts up to 25 mph
  possible in valleys unless sheltered from the northeast.

- Southerly gap flow expected in Alaska Range Passes expected
  Tuesday night and Wednesday night into Thursday. Gusts up to 45
  mph expected for the Eastern Alaska Range and gusts up to 40 mph
  possible for the Western Alaska Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Weaker, generally southerly, winds along the West Coast shift
  easterly Wednesday. Offshore flow expected for most coastal
  communities. Gusts up to 30 mph are possible, but generally
  speeds will be 25 mph or less.

- A wave of rain and snow moves north across the West Coast
  through Tuesday. Primarily rain is expected below 1500 feet with
  primarily snow expected above 2000 feet. Snow accumulations are
  expected to be 1.5 inches or fewer and confined mostly to south
  facing slopes.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Winds shift southerly Tuesday morning with speeds generally
  around 10 mph across the North Slope. Southerly winds
  strengthen Tuesday night up to 20 mph along the North Slope and
  with gusts up to 35 mph in the Brooks Range.


&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
At the start of the forecast period Tuesday morning, a weak low
pressure system over Southern Alaska brought moisture to the
Southern Interior as light rain for most places. Another strong
low pressure system in the North Pacific moves to the Central
Aleutians Tuesday morning and continues to move east reaching near
Kodiak Island overnight Tuesday. This low will increase
northeasterly flow across the Interior Tuesday night into
Wednesday as well as support additional rain across the Interior
and West Coast. Rain is expected in the valleys and snow is
possible at elevations with snow levels generally between 1500 and
2000 feet decreasing further north. The Brooks Range will see
mostly snow. Accumulations are expected to be low with most of the
moisture getting blocked by the Alaska Range. This low will slowly
weaken through the end of the week keeping much of the state wet.


&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
At the start of the extended forecast period, Thursday night, the
low over the state is still keeping areas from the Brooks Range
south wet, but it is weak and disorganized. This continues into
the weekend. Another potentially strong low moves east out of the
North Pacific near the Aleutians and towards southwestern Alaska
Saturday through Monday. Confidence in the track and strength of
this next system is very low with a wide range of possible
positions by Monday from near Nunivak Island to south of the Gulf
of Alaska. Given the large spread there is not yet enough
confidence to speak to any particular impacts, but a more
northwesterly track is more likely to strengthen in the Bering Sea
and could cause areas of high surf and some gusty winds.
Confidence is still far too loo to tell though, but even the
current worst case scenario still looks less impactful than
either of the two previous large coastal storms seen during the
first half of October.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...None.
&&

$$

Stokes