295
FXAK69 PAFG 032310
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
210 PM AKST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Quiet and dry conditions with a mix of sun and clouds will
  continue today, with increasing clouds and winds tonight into
  Wednesday as a front lifts northwest with snow showers.

- Southerly gap winds and a Tanana Valley jet will keep winds
  elevated through the Alaska Range passes and around Delta with
  gusts around 30 to 45 mph today into tonight. A Wind Advisory
  has been issued for north of Isabel Pass for Wednesday as wind
  gusts see an uptick to around 50 to 65 mph.

- A front lifting northwest throughout the day Wednesday will
  support light snow chances, with around a T-2" of snow
  possible. Highest accumulations will remain confined to the
  Alaska Range and north of FNSB.

- Temperatures will see a warming trend into Wednesday courtesy
  of with highs in the 20s/30s and lows in the teens/20s with
  coldest spots in the single digits above and below zero. A
  cooling trend takes hold to finish out the week Thursday
  onwards.

- A secondary front lifting northwest late Thursday into Friday
  will support additional light snow chances into the start of
  the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Light rain/snow showers will continue across the Yukon Delta,
  Lower Yukon Valley, and St. Lawrence Island today as dry
  conditions prevail elsewhere.

- Lighter winds will return today into Thursday for most, as
  breezy winds shift to being out of the northeast with
  strongest winds from Point Hope southwest through the Bering
  Strait to St. Lawrence Island with gusts around 30 to 40 mph.

- A low pressure system lifting northwest on Thursday through
  Southwest Alaska will support an uptick in light rain/snow
  showers, with drier conditions farther inland.

- Temperatures will see a gradual cooling trend to finish out
  the week, with highs in the 20s/30s and lows in the teens/20s
  to low 30s. Coldest spots will drop to the single digits.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Daily snow chances will continue across the Arctic Plains and
  Coast this week, with total snow amounts around 1-3" east of
  the Lisburne Peninsula.

- A front lifting northwest late Wednesday into Thursday into
  the Central/Eastern Brooks Range will support snow amounts
  around 1-2".

- East winds will steadily ramp up along the Arctic Coast
  tonight into Wednesday, remaining elevated through the
  weekend. Wind gusts will peak around 30 to 50 mph, with
  strongest winds immediately along the coast and offshore.

- Gusty winds could lead to areas of blowing snow, with a Winter
  Weather Advisory now in effect from Utqiagvik (Barrow) east to
  Kaktovik Wednesday through Friday. Visibility could drop below
  one half mile, with blizzard conditions possible dependent on
  the magnitude of the blowing snow.

- Temperatures will hold steady overall before trending colder
  this weekend, with highs in the teens and 20s and lows in the
  single digits and teens. Coldest spots will drop to the single
  digits below zero.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet and dry conditions continue across much of Northern
Alaska to start November, with high pressure shifting to the
north and low pressure to the south. This setup will result in
an enhanced pressure gradient over our region, leading to
elevated east/northeast winds particularly across higher
elevations and along the coast. In the Alaska Range, breezy
southerly gap winds will persist through midweek. Snow showers
will remain confined to the North Slope, Southwest Alaska, and
St. Lawrence Island, with a rain/snow mix farther south. A front
lifting northwest over the Interior on Wednesday will bring
light snow and warmer temperatures. Elsewhere, dry conditions
and a mix of sun and clouds will prevail. Temperatures look to
see a cooling trend to finish out the week, with coldest
overnight lows where we see clear skies and light winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a northwest oriented
ridge axis of high pressure extending from the Yukon towards the
Chukchi Sea, with a series of low pressure systems working
around this feature. The main two as of note out the gate is a
low centered over the Beaufort Sea Coast and another out in the
Central Bering, which will continue to bring snow chances across
the North Slope and Southwest Alaska respectively. A rain/snow
mix will also be possible farther south. Elsewhere, a mix of sun
and clouds continues to prevail, with stubborn more persistent
areas of low stratus across the North Slope and portions of the
Interior.

Looking to the south, a 970 mb low moving north towards
Southcentral will eject a front over the Alaska Range, with that
front tracking northwest over the Interior throughout the day
Wednesday. This front will force the high pressure overhead to
the north, increasing the pressure gradient overhead with an
emphasis along the Arctic Coast and through the Alaska Range
passes. Have gone ahead with a Wind Advisory for the Eastern
Alaska Range north of Trims Camp for Wednesday for gusts up to
65 mph, and a Winter Weather Advisory for Wednesday through
Friday for areas of blowing snow and gusts around 30 to 50 mph.
We may ultimately need to add Windy Pass and Delta Junction to
the Wind Advisory dependent on how the strongest wind field
develops, and in addition, we are monitoring the potential for
blizzard conditions along the North Slope. As that front tracks
northwest across the Interior, light snow will be possible, with
amounts around a T-2" with highest totals favoring the
mountains.

For Thursday, a series of shortwaves working along the Alcan
Border, Arctic Coast, and West Coast, will help to keep
precipitation chances going along those corridors as the
Interior trends colder and drier. As the pressure gradient
overhead weakens, strongest winds will shift to being along the
coast as lighter winds return across the Interior. By late
Thursday, another strong 960 mb low will lift north through the
Gulf of Alaska, ejecting another front another front into the
Yukon and into the Eastern Interior Thursday night into Friday.
More details on that front below.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Strong winds along the Northeast Arctic Coast die down over the
course of Friday, though the N/S pressure gradient will support
wind gusts in the 30-40 mph range continue across the entire
Arctic Coast through early next week. A series of weak
shortwaves move over the region will bring some light snow,
which could support periods of blizzard/near blizzard conditons
along the Arctic Coast.

The best chance for snow in the Interior will be on Friday and
Saturday as a low in the Gulf of Alaska moves northeast. GFS and
ECMWF deterministic solutions haven`t agreed on the placement
of this low, which will determine how much moisture is able to
get into the Interior. The ECMWF solution favors a more
northeasterly track over Yakutat, which would be much more
favorable for Interior snow than the GFS`s northerly track over
Prince William Sound.

Model agreement is decent even beyond day 8 that a high over
Siberia will keep our general pattern of lows continuing to
track at/south of the Aleutians, shifting ridging in the
Yukon/Eastern Interior as they move around the North Pacific and
Gulf.

Coastal Hazard Potential...
No significant concerns as the storm track remains south.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM AKST
     Friday for AKZ803>805.
     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM AKST Wednesday for AKZ849.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM AKST
     Wednesday for PKZ805.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6 PM AKST Wednesday for
     PKZ806-810-856.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM AKST Wednesday for
     PKZ807-860.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKST Wednesday for PKZ811-812-
     857-858.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM AKST Wednesday for
     PKZ811.
     Brisk Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM AKST Wednesday for
     PKZ813.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM AKST Wednesday for
     PKZ813-817-859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM AKST
     Wednesday for PKZ814.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM AKST
     Wednesday for PKZ814.
     Gale Warning from 3 PM to 6 PM AKST Wednesday for PKZ814-860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM AKST
     Wednesday for PKZ815.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM AKST
     Wednesday for PKZ815.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 6 PM AKST Wednesday for
     PKZ816-851-855.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for PKZ852.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM AKST Wednesday for
     PKZ852-854-861.
     Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM AKST Wednesday for
     PKZ857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory from 3 PM to 6 PM AKST Wednesday for
     PKZ859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM AKST Wednesday for
     PKZ860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM AKST Wednesday for
     PKZ861.

&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...MacKay
SYNOPSIS.......MacKay
SHORT TERM.....MacKay
LONG TERM......Schlezinger