213
FXAK69 PAFG 142214
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
214 PM AKDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A ridge of high pressure breaks down over the Interior
as the first Bering Sea storm of the season brings abundant
rainfall to the West Coast and Western Interior through Wednesday.
Elevated water levels south of the Bering Strait have prompted
High Surf Advisories from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
morning. Smoky conditions across the central and eastern Brooks
Range look to improve Wednesday as fires to the southwest
producing that smoke will likely get much needed rain. Another
ridge builds quickly behind the southwest flow, bringing warm and
dry conditions back for the end of the week across the area.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Southwest winds will continue to bring smoke into the Northern
  Interior over the next couple of days, though moderating fire
  activity across the western Interior should improve conditions
  by Wednesday.

- West southwest winds will gust to 25 mph across the Yukon Flats
  Monday afternoon and to 30 mph on Tuesday. Southerly gap winds
  through Alaska Range Passes will continue to gust to 30 mph
  through Monday.

- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms today across the area
  and along the Alcan Border on Tuesday.

- Temperatures mainly in the 50s and 60s on Tuesday before warming
  back into the 70s through the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Southwest flow moving inland brings increasing rain and more
  south winds along the coast today through Tuesday night.

- Most areas west of Tanana will see 0.5-1.5" of rainfall through
  Wednesday with the heaviest amounts near Nome.

- Increasing south winds across St. Lawrence Island and the West
  Coast through Tuesday night before subsiding on Wednesday. Gusts
  up to 40 mph are possible through the Bering Strait tonight and
  across the Norton Sound on Tuesday.

- Onshore winds 20 to 25 mph south of the Bering Strait have
  prompted High Surf Advisories for elevated water levels of 3 to
  6 feet above the normal high tide line. Minor beach erosion is
  expected.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- South-southwesterly offshore winds and above normal temperatures
  in the 60s or even low 70s continue through midweek.

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and
  evening from Anaktuvuk Pass eastward across the North Slope.

- Southwest wind gusts of 30-40 mph through Monday night along
  the Northwest Arctic Coast between Point Hope and Wainwright.

- A few chances for light rain Monday night through Thursday
  before onshore flow and low stratus/fog return late this week.

- Smoky conditions across the central and eastern Brooks Range
  look to improve Wednesday as fires to the southwest producing
  that smoke will likely get much needed rain.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Southwest flow is knocking on
the door to the west and will break down the ridge currently in
place as it pushes east Monday. Point Lay on the northeast corner
of the moisture stream is already seeing rainfall with this. This
is also being influenced by a tight low aloft moving east across
the Chukchi Sea and into the Beaufort. As the moisture pushes
inland, most areas west of Tanana will see 0.5-1.5" of rainfall
through Wednesday with the heaviest amounts near Nome. Onshore
winds 20 to 25 mph south of the Bering Strait have prompted High
Surf Advisories for elevated water levels of 3 to 6 feet above the
normal high tide line. Only light amounts are expected east of
Tanana though as the stream of moisture runs into a building ridge
by Tuesday night. This ridge build quickly through Wednesday over
all of Interior Alaska, bringing a short period of warm and dry
conditions back to the area late this week. A low aloft then
moves to the Kuskokwim Delta on Thursday bringing southeast flow
and more showers, particularly for the West Coast and Western
Interior.

One thing we will be paying close attention to today with this
forecast is the strength of southwest winds at the surface ahead
of the main system moving to the West Coast. Surface high pressure
building into the southern Interior ahead of the ridge aloft will
help amplify these winds, and models suggest a 925 mb jet as
strong as 35 knots over the Middle Yukon and over the Yukon Flats
early Tuesday morning and up to 30 knots on Tuesday evening.
Model soundings suggest these winds stay just above the surface in
the flats, but we can`t rule out gusts mixing down from aloft to
impact the surface. Having increased these winds in the forecast
to have gusts to 30 mph in the afternoons today and tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Through Wednesday a series of shortwaves and a
front will move over the state bringing widespread light rain
into the central interior and western coast, with much drier
conditions for the western Yukon Flats. Strong southerly winds
will also impact the western coast tonight through Tuesday as a
front makes landfall, pushing eastward through the day. This
feature will help bring cooler temperatures and higher RH, helping
to moderate fire behavior for the fires in the western zones.
Later Wednesday and Thursday another ridge builds across the state
with warm and dry conditions returning to most of the interior.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...No concerns at this time.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...By late Thursday, a low aloft is
over southwest Alaska with a trough extended south over the North
Slope. This will bring showers and near normal temperatures across
the northern half of the state. Flow turns back to southwest on
Saturday with more rain inbound for the West Coast, possibly
reaching into the Interior. Ridging may return briefly late next
weekend, but looks to be short lived. Models are in much better
than normal agreement on the overall pattern, precipitation, and
general forecast in the extended period.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...High Surf Advisory in
effect for the Bering Strait south to Chevak including Norton
Sound for early Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning. Minor
coastal erosion expected with water levels of 3 to 4 feet above
the normal high tide line, except 4 to 6 feet above the normal
high tide line for Stebbins, Unalakleet, Shaktoolik, Koyuk, Elim,
and Golovin.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Surf Advisory for AKZ821.
     High Surf Advisory for AKZ822-824-825.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-806-853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803-805-852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-811-856>858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ809-855.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-851-854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ850.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
&&

$$

Chriest/Park (fire)