323
FXAK69 PAFG 281429
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
629 AM AKDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Freezing overnight temperatures yield slick travel
  conditions Wednesday morning as wet and slushy spots from
  Tuesday become frozen.

- Precipitation builds into the region from west to east
  Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Liquid accumulations
  will be between a T-0.25". Higher accumulations are expected
  north and west of Tanana.

- Southerly gap winds through the AK Range Passes strengthen
  Wednesday morning and stay elevated through late Wednesday
  night gusting upwards of 65 mph. Winds strengthen again
  Thursday afternoon and continue through Saturday morning with
  gusts up to 80 mph possible in the Eastern AK Range.

- Temperatures remain above seasonable norms in the mid/upper
  30s through Friday before cooling into the mid/upper 20s over
  the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Rain/snow showers continue across the West Coast this
  morning, moving east into the Western Interior Wednesday
  afternoon/evening. Rain is expected during the day with a
  transition to snow overnight and above 1500 feet.

- Moderate snowfall accumulations between 4 to 6 inches are
  expected across the southern slopes of the Western Brooks
  Range through late Wednesday night.

- A brief break in precipitation is expected Thursday morning
  before remnants of Typhoon Champi bring a return of
  widespread rain/snow showers to the region Thursday night
  through Friday.

- Impacts from Champi remain fairly minor with the exception
  of Hooper Bay where water levels 2 to 4 feet above the normal
  high tide line and minor flooding of low-lying areas are
  expected. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from Thursday
  morning through late Friday night.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Gusty winds and slight chances for a rain/snow mix at times
  will continue along the Chukchi Sea Coast through Thursday
  afternoon from Utqiagvik west. Snow chances are highest
  farther east, with rain more likely farther west.

- Heavy snow is expected in the Western Brooks Range through
  Thursday afternoon, with accumulations between 8 to 18
  inches. Another round of snowfall will move in from the
  southwest Thursday night through Friday morning with an
  additional 8 to 12 inches possible over the Central Brooks
  Range.

- Temperatures remain seasonably warm through Saturday with
  highs in the low/mid 30s and lows in the low/mid 20s.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A rainy start to the morning can be seen across the West Coast today
as a front moves through the area. This front will gradually move
east through Wednesday bringing widespread precipitation to much of
the Interior Wednesday night into Thursday. Fairly light
accumulations are expected in the FNSB, with most precipitation
falling as rain during the day, transitioning into snow overnight
and above 1500 feet. Remnants of Typhoon Champi bring yet another
round of widespread precipitation and gusty winds to Western Alaska
beginning Thursday morning/afternoon. As a result, showers build
into the Western Interior from the southwest through Friday while
winds strengthen and gust up to 60 to 70 mph through the AK Range
Passes Thursday evening through Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The forecast remains on track with a ridge of high pressure
currently sitting over Prince William Sound and a decaying low over
Siberia. A front associated with the aforementioned low continues to
progress eastward this morning as it gradually embeds itself within
a shortwave trough. Because this front is tapping into atmospheric
river moisture extending all the way down from around 30N,
widespread moderate to heavy precipitation will impact the West
Coast through Wednesday night. Due to temperatures in the upper 30s
and low 40s across the region, rain is expected at the surface with
snow above 1500 feet. Farther north, moderate to heavy snowfall will
impact the southern slopes of the Western Brooks Range where 6 to 12
inches is expected near Red Dog Mine and up to 18 inches are
expected at elevation. Periods of blowing snow may develop at times
where winds gust up to 35 mph. Towards the overnight hours
Wednesday, the front moves farther east into the Interior where
liquid precipitation accumulations will generally range from a T-
0.25". The highest accumulations are expected to the north and west
of Tanana, as well as within the Central Brooks Range. Ahead of the
front`s arrival, southerly gap winds through the Alaska Range Passes
strengthen with gusts up to 65 mph expected. A Wind Advisory remains
in effect from 7 AM Wednesday through 7 AM Thursday.

Looking towards Thursday, the West Coast experiences a brief break
in precipitation before another round of showers moves in from the
southwest as remnants of Typhoon Champi move into the Bering Sea.
Previous model guidance had this system tracking farther north and
with each model run has progressively shifted its track farther
south. As a result, impacts from this storm remain much more
marginal than originally anticipated, with the YK Delta coastline
feeling the most effects. With that being said, a Coastal Flood
Advisory is in effect for Hooper Bay from 7AM Thursday through 1 AM
Saturday for water levels 2 to 4 feet above the normal high tide,
beach erosion, and flooding of low-lying areas/buildings. Otherwise,
as the storm moves farther east through the day Thursday, strong
southerly flow sets up over the state, with a nearly 8 to 10 mb
gradient set up over the AK Range. With a gradient that strong, we
expect to see winds quickly strengthen again with gusts up to 60 to
70 mph possible through Saturday morning. Otherwise, as mentioned
earlier, precipitation will gradually build in over the state from
the southwest, pulling in quite a bit of tropical moisture with it.
This abundance of moisture will help to yield snow accumulations of
8 to 12 inches in the Central Brooks Range, while the rest of the
Central and Eastern Interior remains fairly dry due to downsloping
effects. Similarly, because of strong southerly flow in place over
the past few days, temperatures across the state remain above
seasonable norms but will gradually cool going into the weekend as
broad troughing sets up over the state.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At the start of the extended forecast period, Saturday, the
pattern continues to shift to broad troughing. A strong low
pressure system in Bristol Bay continues to shift southeast
towards the Gulf of Alaska. Gusty east to northeasterly winds
across the West Coast and Interior weaken Saturday. Rain and
snow showers dissipate across the West Coast and Interior
Saturday and Sunday.

By late Monday a messy pair of strong low pressure systems move into
the Southern Bering Sea. These two storms are of roughly equal
strength at first, around 960 millibars, and rotate around each
other as they move east along the Aleutians. This is a very messy
system with uncertain impacts. Which of these two storms becomes
more dominant will end up determining impacts for the West Coast.
Most models are currently suggesting that the easternmost of the two
lows with better access to warm, moist air is more likely to become
dominant. This would keep impacts farther south and limit Coastal
impacts for the West Coast from Hooper Bay north. There are some
model solutions that are suggesting that the westernmost low will be
able to strengthen enough in the Bering Sea to instead become
dominant. This would cause the more eastern storm to rotate north
towards the West Coast bringing additional wind, rain, and water
impacts to portions of the West Coast and Western Interior. We will
continue to monitor the development of these messy storm systems and
update as the forecast becomes more certain.

Away from the coast, the shifting trough/ridge axis is expected to
lead to warming over the eastern portions of the state early next
week. Storm impacts will be more limited over the Central and
Eastern Interiors.

&&

.COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
Water levels slowly receed through the end of the week. The next
storm to approach the West Coast will be the remnants of Typhoon
Champi. Since yesterday, the expected storm track for this storm has
shifted even farther south with it now moving towards Bristol Bay
Thursday through Friday. The most recent guidance places the track
200 miles south of Nunivak Island which will significantly weaken
all expected coastal impacts from this storm system for areas from
Hooper Bay north. The Coastal Flood Watch for Hooper Bay has been
downgraded into a Coastal Flood Advisory for water levels peaking in
the 2 to 4 foot range above the normal high tide line with the
Thursday high tide. The more southerly track will limit water levels
elsewhere along the coast with most of the Norton Sound and Yukon
Delta Coast only seeing 1 to 3 feet of rise above the normal high
tide line with the Thursday high tides.

Another messy pair of storms move through the southern Bering Sea
early next week which could bring coastal impacts back to portions
of the West Coast. This is a very disorganized system with high
uncertainty in its development once it reaches the Bering Sea. Most
model guidance currently suggests that the storm will be well to the
south of Nunivak Island which would significantly limit impacts once
again. There are, however, enough ensemble members showing more
northerly tracks that could cause some coastal impacts that these
storms cannot be dismissed. We will continue to monitor their
development and update the forecast as confidence improves.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Repeated rounds of moderate-to-heavy precipitation will keep rivers
and streams along the West Coast and Seward Peninsula elevated
through the week, with the highest hydrologic impacts focused near
Nome. A frontal boundary tapping into an atmospheric river, followed
by the remnants of Typhoon Champi late in the week, will maintain
persistent rain and high-elevation snow accumulations across western
regions.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Saturday
     morning for AKZ812.
     Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM AKDT Thursday for AKZ813-814.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 1 AM AKDT
     Saturday for AKZ825.
     Wind Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Thursday for AKZ847-849.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ801-
     806.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Thursday for
     PKZ801-814-850-851-859-860.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ802-
     803.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ805-
     809-852-853.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM AKDT
     Thursday for PKZ806-854.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT
     Thursday for PKZ807-856.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ808-855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for
     PKZ809.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ811-
     856-857.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT
     Thursday for PKZ811-812-857-858.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Thursday for
     PKZ813.
     Brisk Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ813-
     814.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT
     this evening for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ850-
     858.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM AKDT this
     afternoon for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ859.
&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Santiago
SYNOPSIS.......Santiago
SHORT TERM.....Santiago
LONG TERM......Stokes
COASTAL........Stokes
HYDROLOGY......Laney/Stokes