265
FXAK69 PAFG 211138
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
238 AM AKST Fri Nov 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
More persistent snowfall begins for the Eastern Interior Friday
morning. Accumulations through early Sunday mostly light, but
heavier in the White Mountains and elevated terrain south of Fort
Yukon. Gusty northwesterly winds and some showery snow persists
over the West Coast and diminishes through Sunday. Increasing
pressure Saturday night through Tuesday will bring colder, drier,
and clearer weather early next week which may last through the
end of next week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Steadier snow arrives Friday afternoon/evening and continues
  through Saturday night. Some showers remain early Sunday.
- 6 to 12 inches of heavy snow in the White Mountains and
   elevated terrain south of the Yukon Flats. A Winter Storm
   Warning has been issued for heavy snow.
- 2 to 4 inches in Fairbanks area (including Eielson).
- 1 to 3 inches from Delta to Nenana north/west to Bettles.
- Little to no snow accumulations from Tok south/east.

- Colder and drier conditions return next week.

- Clouds clear late Sunday into Monday. Temperatures decrease in
  valley locations under clear skies as stronger temperature
  inversions develop.

- Southerly winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph early
  Friday in the Eastern Alaska Range. Winds diminish through the
  day Friday. A wind advisory is in effect.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Showery snow and gusty northwesterly winds slowly remain through
  Friday and diminish Saturday.
- Light snow for the Western Interior Friday and Saturday around
   1 to 2 inches.
- North-northwesterly winds along the coast with gusts of 30 to
   40 mph through Friday. Western Interior gusts 15 to 25 mph
   Saturday.

- Colder and drier conditions return next week.

- Temperatures in the 20s to near 30 along the coast, decreasing
  through the weekend with highs in the single digits and teens,
  and lows near or below 0 for much of next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Light snow develops on the Slope, Beaufort Sea Coast and in the
  Brooks Range Friday. Snow accumulations will be around 1 to 3
  inches with a couple of spots near 4 inches in the Eastern
  Brooks Range and near Kaktovik.

- Colder and drier conditions return next week.

- Widespread temperatures in the single digits with lows near or
  below 0 along the coast, and potentially in the teens to 20s
  below zero in the Brooks Range next week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
For Friday morning through Sunday night.
At the start of the forecast period, Friday morning, a broad
trough extends over most of Alaska. This trough is messy and
composed of 3 distinct lows and a weak high. These are located in
Bristol Bay around 504 decameters, near the Kenai Peninsula around
510 decameters, and near the Canadian border east of Fort Yukon
around 508 decameters. The high is located near Point Barrow
around 518 decameters. The low in Bristol Bay and near the Kenai
Peninsula is supporting showery snow and gusty northwesterly winds
along the West Coast and Western Interior. These lows move
further east into the Gulf of Alaska by Friday night diminishing
the showers and weakening the winds Saturday. The low near the
Canadian border is supporting an area of snow over the Eastern
Interior. This low weakens slightly and slowly moves northeast
through Sunday. Snow showers will persist in the Eastern Interior
through Saturday and diminish overnight into Sunday. Snow will be
mostly confined to the White Mountains and elevated terrain of
the Eastern Interior, but some lighter accumulations are still
expected in the valleys Tanana east and north of Tok. The high
pressure over the North Slope builds and strengthens through the
weekend as a ridge moves in from the west.

This ridge brings increasing surface pressure, drier conditions,
and cooler temperatures from the west Friday night through
Sunday. After Sunday forecast confidence diminishes due to notable
differences in how models represent the evolution of the next low
to move towards Alaska from the West Sunday into Monday. Models
generally agree on keeping the low center south of the Aleutians,
but have significant disagreements on the strength, timing, and
placement of other weaker lows and shortwave features rotating
around this larger low. Most likely northern Alaska is looking at
cooler, drier conditions through much of next week as the
disorganized conglomeration of lows stays further south. Some
warmer conditions and chances of snowfall are possible in the
southwestern Interior if some of these shortwave features end up
rotating further north.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
For Monday morning through next Friday.
At the start of the extended forecast period, Monday morning, high
pressure rests over Northern Alaska as a 546 decameter high
extends from the Chukotsk Peninsula over the West Coast and North
Slope. Pressure is slightly lower in the southeastern Interior due
to the lingering presence of a low in the Gulf of Alaska that
slowly weakens through midweek. A 507 decameter disorganized low
in the North Pacific is mostly kept at bay by the higher pressure
to the north. This low lingers through the week and slowly
weakens.

Late next week, Thursday into Friday, we are beginning to see
signs of the next large low to move from the west in the overall
pattern. This one has a surprising amount of model agreement in
the 00Z model runs given how chaotic the low before it was.
Currently models are phasing this new low with the old one
creating the potential for a strong system late next week just
south of the Aleutians. This system could be strong and large
enough to form an atmospheric river event that could potentially
pull large amounts of moisture from further south towards Alaska.
Given how far out this feature is, confidence is still quite low,
but there is potential for a warmer, very wet pattern that could
produce wintry mix or even areas of rain. Given that potential we
will keep a close watch on this feature and its potential
evolution.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ833-834.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ838-842.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801-804>807-816-817-851-852-
     854-856>858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-810-811.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-809.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-850-853-857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806-854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-855.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ850-853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
     Gale Warning for PKZ856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

$$

Stokes