794
FXAK69 PAFG 212243
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
143 PM AKST Fri Nov 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Snow has developed across the Central and Eastern
Interior and will persist through Saturday before tapering off
Sunday. Accumulations of 6+ inches are likely in the hills off
Chena Hot Springs Road and north and east of Eagle Summit.
Generally 3 to 6 inches from Fairbanks to Livengood and east to
Eagle Summit, though areas beneath convective snow bands may see
locally higher amounts. Light snow persists in the Brooks Range
and along the Arctic Coast east of Deadhorse through Sunday. Snow
showers and winds along western capes along the west coast
diminish Saturday. High pressure builds in Sunday, bringing drier
and colder conditions to Northern Alaska next week, as well as
increasing northeast winds and blowing snow with low visibility
north of Fairbanks.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Steadier snow arrives Friday afternoon/evening and continues
  through Saturday night. Some showers remain early Sunday.
- 6 to 12 inches of heavy snow in the White Mountains and
   elevated terrain south of the Yukon Flats. A Winter Storm
   Warning has been issued for heavy snow. The heaviest snow will
   be north and east of Eagle Summit, especially near Circle and
   Chalkyitsik.
- 2 to 4 inches in Fairbanks area (including Eielson), though
   areas beneath heavier bands of snow could see 6+" similar to
   the White Mountains.
- 1 to 3 inches from Delta to Nenana north/west to Bettles.
- Little to no snow accumulations from Tok south/east.

- Colder and drier conditions return next week.

- Clouds clear late Sunday into Monday. Temperatures decrease in
  valley locations under clear skies as stronger temperature
  inversions develop.

- Increasing northeast winds Monday through next week. Areas of
  blowing snow and low visibility with difficult travel conditions
  over Dalton, Elliott, and Steese Highway Summits next week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Showery snow and gusty northwesterly winds slowly diminish
  Saturday.
- Light snow for the Western Interior Friday and Saturday around
   1 to 2 inches.
- North-northwesterly winds along the coast with gusts of 30 to
   40 mph through Friday. Western Interior gusts 15 to 25 mph
   Saturday.

- Colder and drier conditions return next week.

- Increasing east and northeast winds Monday through next week.

- Temperatures in the 20s to near 30 along the coast, decreasing
  through the weekend with highs in the single digits and teens,
  and lows near or below 0 for much of next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Light snow continues on the Slope, Beaufort Sea Coast and in the
  Brooks Range this weekend. Snow accumulations will be around 1
  to 3 inches with a couple of spots near 4 inches in the Eastern
  Brooks Range and near Kaktovik through Sunday.

- Colder and drier conditions return next week.

- Widespread temperatures in the single digits with lows near or
  below 0 along the coast, and potentially in the teens to 20s
  below zero in the Brooks Range next week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Broad troughing and low
pressure is present across the state with abundant moisture locked
into the area of low pressure over the Interior. Areas of snow
will continue to develop this afternoon as a vorticity maximum
drifts south over the area. This snow will continue through
Saturday before diminishing Sunday. Expect 2-4" in the Fairbanks
area and 6+ inches for the White Mountains. Due to the convective
nature of the snow event, areas beneath heavier bands may see 6+
inches of snow, even in the Fairbanks area. The official snow
forecast continues to be much higher than model guidance due to
the convective nature of the event, the fact that we are
anticipating snow to be low density and of the fluffy variety, and
the similarity of this setup to December 2024 when snowfall
overperformed model guidance over multiple days.

Across the west coast, northerly flow weakens Saturday as high
pressure shifts east to the Beaufort Sea. This will put an end to
the areas of blowing snow and snow showers through the Bering
Strait and across Western Capes. As high pressure builds over the
Beaufort Sea and continues to move east early next week, expect
skies to clear across the area and for the current warmer than
normal temperatures to become colder than normal. By Monday
afternoon, the entire forecast area looks dry and mostly clear.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...We are monitoring 2 significant
pattern changes in the extended period. The first is high
probability and is an increase in northeast winds across the whole
area Tuesday through the end of the week. This is as high pressure
drifts east over the Yukon Territory while low pressure moves over
the Aleutians. This increase in wind will likely cause snow that
falls this weekend to blow and for visibility to be reduced,
especially over Dalton Highway summits and north of Fairbanks. The
second pattern change we are monitoring is toward an amplified and
potentially impactful pattern in the next Friday-Monday time
period. Models show remarkable agreement for warm air and moisture
from as far south as 20 degrees north being advected toward
mainland Alaska to the east of the North Pacific ridge. It is too
early to pin down exactly where and when warm air and
precipitation will reach, however there is potential for a heavy
precipitation event, likely a mix of rain and snow, in Northern
Alaska next weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ833-834.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ838-842.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-850.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801-852-853.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-803.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-806-852>854.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806-807-854-856>858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808>810-855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816-817-851.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Gale Warning for PKZ856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

$$

Chriest