765
FXAK69 PAFG 080003
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
403 PM AKDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Steadier and more widespread rain will build in Monday night
  into Tuesday and Wednesday as a low working east through
  Southcentral brings a cold front across the Interior.

- Winds have already ramped up through the Alaska Range passes
  out of the south and are expected to remain elevated through
  Tuesday, peaking tonight into Tuesday morning with gusts up to
  around 50 mph.

- Rainfall totals through Tuesday night are expected to be
  around 0.10 to 0.50 inches, locally higher in the Alaska Range
  around 0.50 to 1.50 inches where snow levels will be around
  7000 to 8000 feet.

- Behind and along the cold front, winds will ramp up out of the
  west as drier conditions build in. Wind gusts for most will
  peak Wednesday with gusts up to around 30 to 40 mph. Wind
  Advisories are now in effect late Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Temperatures will trend cooler Tuesday into Wednesday as
  widespread cloud cover and a cold front move in, with highs in
  the 50s/60s and lows mostly in the 50s.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Rain showers will continue across Western Alaska through
  Tuesday, culminating with a cold frontal passage late Tuesday
  into Wednesday.

- Rainfall totals through Tuesday night are expected to be
  around 0.10 to 0.50 inches, with drier conditions out at St.
  Lawrence Island and across the Yukon Delta.

- A strong low will track northeast from the Western Bering Sea
  through Siberia towards the Chukchi Sea Wednesday into
  Thursday and Friday, ejecting a warm front into Western Alaska
  late Wednesday into Thursday followed by atmospheric river
  moisture Friday into Saturday.

- This system will bring widespread rain, gusty winds, and
  onshore flow, with high surf and minor coastal erosion
  expected.

- High Surf Advisories have been issued for the Southern Seward
  Peninsula Coast north to Kivalina for water level rises around
  2 to 4 feet above the normal highest high tide line. High Wind
  Watches have also been issued for St. Lawrence Island and the
  Bering Strait for wind gusts up to 60 mph.

- Temperatures will hold steady this week with southwest flow,
  with highs in the 40s/50s to low 60s and lows mostly in the
  40s.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- A front lifting north tonight into Tuesday will bring isolated
  to scattered rain showers to the Brooks Range and NW Arctic
  Coast, with that front then tracking east Tuesday into
  Wednesday with more scattered to widespread rain chances.

- Rainfall totals through Tuesday night are expected to be
  around 0.10 to 0.50 inches in the Central/Western Brooks Range
  and NW Arctic Coast south of Point Hope.

- A strong low will track northeast from the Western Bering Sea
  through Siberia towards the Chukchi Sea Wednesday into
  Thursday and Friday, ejecting a warm front into Western Alaska
  late Wednesday into Thursday followed by atmospheric river
  moisture Friday into Saturday.

- This system will bring widespread rain, gusty winds, and
  onshore flow to Western/NW Arctic Coast, where high surf and
  minor coastal erosion is expected. Heaviest rain totals will
  be in the Brooks Range and Western/NW Arctic Coast.

- High Surf Advisories have been issued for the Western/NW
  Arctic Coasts from Point Hope to Wainwright for water level
  rises around 3 to 5 feet above the normal highest high tide
  line. High Wind Watches have also been issued for Point Hope
  to Point Lay for wind gusts up to 60 mph.

- Temperatures will see warming trend through Friday, with highs
  climbing to the 40s/50s to low 60s and lows in the 30s/40s,
  colder across higher elevations of the Brooks Range.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of lows tracking into Southwest/Southcentral Alaska
Tuesday will keep rain chances going, with the bulk of activity
shifting from Western Alaska today and tonight towards the
Central/Eastern Interior Tuesday into early Wednesday. A cold
front will track east across the Interior late Tuesday into
Wednesday, supporting gusty winds on the backside of the front.
Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected late Tuesday into
Wednesday across the Interior as a result, with a Wind Advisory
now in effect. Looking west, a strong low will lift northeast
from the Western Bering Sea through Siberia Wednesday into
Thursday. This system will eject a warm front into Western
Alaska late Wednesday into Thursday, followed by atmospheric
river moisture Thursday into the weekend. Strong winds along the
West Coast will lead to high surf and minor coastal erosion,
with High Surf Advisories now in effect from Golovin to
Wainwright. High Wind Watches are also now in effect for St.
Lawrence Island northeast through the Bering Strait to the
Northwest Arctic Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Broad troughing continues to dominate over Western Alaska for
the start of the forecast period. Satellite imagery from this
morning shows the triple point weakening over the central
Bering. Meanwhile, another shortwave continues to move westerly
along the Aleutians, trying to take over as the "main low" in
the broad troughing. Looking inland, most of northern Alaska is
blanketed with mid to low level clouds. This is mainly due to
southerly flow that has been set up aloft, which is allowing for
an influx of moisture and embedded shortwaves.

Out ahead of the trough is a weaker shortwave that will continue
to shift a weak warm front from the SW to the NE on Monday. In
addition, ridging will continue to develop out over the Western
Bering. This will cause the trough to shift east, breaking down
the subtle ridging that was set up over the eastern portions of
the Interior. As this progresses, energy from the weakening
triple point will get wrapped back around the newly formed
upper-level low. This will allow the trough to hold its strength
as it progresses eastward. All of this will allow for the
scattered to widespread showers to continue across much of
Northern Alaska through the mid-week. As the trough axis moves
over south-central Alaska, this will set up a brief period of
marginal, southerly gap winds through the Alaska Range passes.

By early Wednesday, attention turns to another shortwave moving
E/SE from the Chukchi ahead of the building ridge in the Bering.
This is the point in the forecast period where models begin to
diverge the most. The disagreement is on how for south the
shortwave will be able to progress. With pattern recognition,
models have a tendency to break down ridges much quicker than
what actually happens. That being said, the EC is currently the
least aggressive with the southerly push of this shortwave.
Other models, such as the GFS and Canadian, have the shortwave
pushing into the building ridge much more quickly. This can be
seen in 850mb temperatures as the EC is showing temperatures
below freezing to remain situated over the Brooks Range. While
the others have temperatures below freezing across much of the
North Slope and the Interior by Wednesday night. What this
means for the forecast, a decent spread can be seen in minimum
temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday along with a
variation in precipitation probabilities. In addition, this will
affect where the associated surface low sets up over the
Interior, if any, depending on which solution comes to fruition.
This would then play a role in how strong surface winds are
across the Interior on Wednesday.

With this ongoing, a stacked 990mb low is looking to set up
over Siberia late Wednesday night. The associated warm front,
with a NW-SE orientation, will move over Seward Peninsula
sometime Wednesday night. Behind this front, a stacked column of
southwesterly flow will begin to move in over the Bering. This
has the potential to set up a prolonged period of strong SW
winds across the Bering, which will lead to coastal concerns.
The main warm front will lift northeast late Wednesday into
Thursday, followed by atmospheric river moisture building in
late Thursday into Friday and Saturday.

Main changes on the day shift today centered around issuing
products for the West Coast and Interior, where the strongest
winds and coastal impacts are expected. Coastal impact
confidence has increased, centering around minor water level
rises across the West Coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The extended period begins on Friday with a developed upper
level ridge oriented southwest to northeast over Alaska. At the
same time, just offshore in the Chukchi Sea, an upper level
arctic low will situate itself. A strong pressure gradient will
be formed between these two systems, forcing the upper level jet
stream to the boundary between them. As a result we will
continue to see strong gusts of 60 mph along the West Coast, and
30 mph across the Interior.

These strong winds will continue to impact Alaska on Friday
morning. Saturday morning the arctic low will shift eastward
across the North Slope, weakening the sustained ridge, and
allowing the wind gusts to extend further inland towards the
Interior. On Sunday the winds will likely weaken as a new
ridging system develops over the Bering Sea and begins moving
east. Once the ridge fully situates itself over Alaska on
Monday, wind gusts are expected to completely diminish, closing
off our extended period.

Throughout the extended period moderate to heavy showers are
possible, with heavier showers likely in the higher elevations.
Rainfall totals along the West Coast and western Brooks Range,
will range from 0.5" to 2.5" with the highest amounts localized
to higher elevations. In the Interior rainfall totals could be
up to 0.5", and areas of higher terrain reaching 1" by the end
of the weekend.

&&

.COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
A developing Siberian low will move northeast towards the Chukchi
Sea setting up southwesterly flow across the West Coast. This low
will bring gale force winds into Norton Sound and Kotzebue Sound.
With these strong winds and long fetch of the winds we will see
water rises across the West Coast. For much of the coastline we
could see rises of 2 to 5 feet with the highest rises from Elim to
Unalakleet.

With the strong southwesterly winds continuing for roughly 48
hours, there will be multiple high tide cycles that will be
elevated. Waters will begin to rise Wednesday and will peak
Thursday night for the communities along the Norton Sound and
the Y- K Delta Coastline. The higher waters are expected to
continue through Friday. For communities along Kotzebue Sound
and then the NW Arctic Coastline waters will rise early Thursday
morning and peak Friday morning. The higher waters for this
region will continue into Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today will be the last warm day in the Central and Eastern
Interior this afternoon ahead of an impending coastal system.
Highs will be in the 60s in the valleys, with min RH values
falling as low as the upper 30s in the Upper Tanana coastal.
Tuesday morning, a Bering Sea low moving into Alaska will lead
to multiple days of cool and wet weather across the area,
including in the Upper Tanana Valley; highs will widely fall
into the 50s with min RHs rising well critical thresholds. Rain
will overspread Western Alaska early Tuesday and reach the
Eastern Interior by the afternoon/evening hours, with gusty
westerly winds up to around 40 mph in the valleys (potentially
near 50 in the higher terrain) overspreading the area by
Wednesday morning. Wetting rains are likely even in the Upper
Tanana Valley with this system. With some limited instability in
the area, isolated thunderstorms will possible in the Eastern
Interior Tuesday, including in the Upper Tanana Valley,
Fortymile Country, and eastern Alaska Range. By Thursday, rain
and shower activity will decrease in the Upper Tanana Valley but
continue elsewhere by Friday night as another low begins
affecting the area. Ahead of this next round of rain, there
could be a brief warm-up, with a day of dry RHs returning to the
southeastern Interior.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A weak Bering Sea low will be bringing 0.25" to 0.75" of
rainfall to the West Coast and Western Interior through Tuesday.
While this amount of rainfall wouldn`t typically warrant hydro
concerns, it does prelude a bigger event Wednesday night through
Sunday. A strong low will move into the Chukchi Sea late
Wednesday night and will be accompanied with an atmospheric
river extending to the tropics. This atmospheric river will help
to produce 72 hour rainfall totals of 0.5" to 2.5" for most of
Northern Alaska. The Upper Tanana Valley and Upper Yukon will be
the driest spots with only up to 0.25" of rainfall expected. On
the flip side the wettest areas will be the Southern Seward
Peninsula and the south slopes of the Western Brooks Range will
be the wettest.

This additional rainfall is not expected to create any concerns
along the mainstem rivers. However, on the smaller creeks and
streams could see rapid rises and/or bankfull conditions.
Recreators should be prepared for rapidly changing water
conditions in the smaller tributaries.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Surf Advisory from 10 PM Wednesday to 4 PM AKDT Friday
     for AKZ801-802.
     High Wind Watch from late Wednesday night through Friday
     afternoon for AKZ801.
     High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 4 PM AKDT Friday for
     AKZ815>818-820>822.
     High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday
     afternoon for AKZ820-821-827.
     Wind Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 10 PM AKDT Wednesday for
     AKZ831>847-849.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for
     PKZ801-803.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM AKDT Tuesday for
     PKZ805.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM AKDT
     Tuesday for PKZ806.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ808-
     809-855.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ852.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ853.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM AKDT
     Tuesday for PKZ854.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ856.

&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...MacKay
SYNOPSIS.......MacKay
SHORT TERM.....Twombly/MacKay
LONG TERM......Donner
COASTAL........Dennis
FIRE WEATHER...DS
HYDROLOGY......Dennis