092
FXAK69 PAFG 172330
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
330 PM AKDT Sun May 17 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm weather with afternoon showers and the occasional
thunderstorm are expected to continue across the Interior for much
of the week. Cold conditions with low clouds and areas of fog
across the North Slope also last through much of the week. Showery
conditions along the West Coast gives way to periods of mixed
precipitation especially through the Bering Strait and near St.
Lawrence Island. Gusty southerly winds and drier conditions
continue for areas near the Alaska Range, again, through much of
the week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Gusty southerly winds continue in the Alaska Range passes with
  gusts over 50 mph. A Wind advisory remains in effect for Isabel
  Pass and Delta Junction through Sunday evening. Exposed silt
  along rivers may be lofted by these winds causing areas of
  blowing dust.

- Dry conditions persist through the upper Tanana Valley. A Red
  Flag Warning remains in effect through Sunday evening due to the
  combination of dry conditions and gusty winds.

- Isolated to scattered showers are expected to begin for the
  Interior on Monday into Tuesday with a non-zero chance of
  embedded thunderstorms amongst the showers. Thunderstorms are
  most likely.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Showery conditions expected along the West Coast from the Seward
  Peninsula south Sunday afternoon and evening as a front moves
  through the area. Another, more widespread wave of showers is
  expected Monday afternoon through Tuesday.

- Periods of wintry mix are expected Sunday afternoon through
  Monday morning from St. Lawrence Island through the Bering
  Strait amongst these showers. Small ice accumulations are
  possible, most likely on the elevated stairs leading into
  buildings. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Chilly temperatures persist with highs in the 20s and lows in
  the teens along the North Slope. A gradient of temperatures
  across the Brooks Range with highs in the 50s to near 60 along
  the southern slopes and low 40s for the northern slopes.

- Northeast winds are expected to increase Sunday night through
  Monday for the western North Slope. There may be periods of
  blowing snow at Point Lay if there remains enough blowable snow
  to their northeast.

- Showery conditions are expected Sunday evening and Monday
  afternoon through Tuesday along the southern portions of the
  Brooks Range. Little to no precipitation is expected across the
  North Slope.

- A large area of low stratus and fog drapes the Arctic Coast.
  Onshore winds supply ample moisture and periods of fog and low
  stratus are likely to continue through much of the week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
For Sunday through Tuesday.
At the start of the forecast period Sunday, the overall pattern
remains dominated by 4 relatively persistent features in the
region. A large region of low pressure stalled over the Bering
Sea, a strong ridge that has built in over Western Canada, a
region of strong high pressure across the Western Arctic ocean and
Chukchi Sea, and an Arctic low near the North Pole all interact to
shape our weather for the upcoming week.

At the very start of the forecast period the remnants of a
shortwave low that moved around the Bering Sea low and brought a
brief period of rain across the Interior yesterday supports some
light precipitation along the West Coast and Brooks Range Sunday
afternoon. It`s presence is helping to separate the Canadian
ridge and Western Arctic high. Another shortwave quickly follows
bringing another round of showers to wash across the Interior and
West Coast Monday afternoon. This keeps the high and ridge
separated until the shortwave weakens late Monday. By early
Tuesday the higher pressure over the Western Arctic begins to move
east over the North Slope allowing surface pressure to slowly
increase over the northern parts of the state once more.
All the while the low to the far north has been slinging
shortwaves towards Western Canada suppressing the ridge and
weakening its influence. As the high moves over the North Slope it
becomes the top of a weak ridge that settles over the region. This
new ridge will separate the high Arctic low from the mainland
keeping the Interior warm while the North Slope remains cold.

The pattern stalls after this and remains relatively similar
through the end of the week with a weak ridge across the northern
portions of the state and a low in the Bering. Warm conditions
across the Interior persist with periods of showers and gusty
southerly winds through the Alaska Range passes. These conditions
will remain until the pattern shifts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong southerly winds through the Alaska Range remain the
primary fire weather hazard this week, as the pattern of low
pressure over the Bering and a ridge over Canada persists through
the later half of the week. Delta Junction is still under a Red
Flag Warning until 10PM Sunday for winds greater than 30 mph and
relative humidities at or below 25 percent. Winds through the
Alaska Range passes will wane this evening, but not subside
entirely, remaining gusty Sunday night into Monday before
restrengthening Tuesday morning. Wind intensity Tuesday looks
similar to the conditions we saw this weekend, up to 60 mph gusts
through Isabel and Windy Pass and up to 50 mph at Delta Junction.
This cycle of rising and falling winds looks to repeat itself
again, weakening Wednesday and strengthening Thursday. Relative
humidity in Delta Junction will likely bottom out marginally close
to Red Flag criteria (25%) during the afternoon, so we will be
keeping an eye out for potential Red Flag conditions throughout
the week.

Elsewhere, on Sunday, clear skies in the Northern Interior will mean
temperatures peak in the upper 60s. Along with the warmer
temperatures, the Yukon Flats will see relative humidities in the
low twenties and teens. Conditions will be slightly more moderate in
the rest of the Interior, temperatures peaking in the low to mid 60s
and RHs in the mid to upper 20s, recovering into the 50s Sunday
night. Western portions of Alaska will fair better still, with
relative humidities staying above 30 percent even in the warmer
Kobuk Valley. The temperature and relative humidity should trend
milder through the week, with lows in the Bering resulting in cloudy
and sometimes active, but not particularly impactful weather.
Showers will become more widespread in the Western Interior on
Monday and Tuesday, with afternoon showers possibly developing over
higher terrain in the Interior. Some of those showers may develop
into isolated thunderstorms as well. Winds away from the Alaska
Range will be generally southerly and gusty in the evening. Winds
will be stronger in higher terrain, especially in the Western half
of the state where the influence of the lows in the Bering will be
felt more strongly.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Yukon River:
The breakup front on the Yukon has passed Grayling. Water remains
high on the Yukon upriver from the breakup front due to snowmelt
with a Flood Warning remaining in effect in Galena. No significant
flooding is expected from this high water although there may be
areas of minor flooding.

Buckland River:
Water levels are falling and the river upstream of Buckland is
open.

Chena:
The Chena River continues to respond to warmer temperatures with
higher elevation snowmelt leading to rivers running higher than
normal, but likely remaining below action stage.

Additional Information:
Visit www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest hydro information.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services, law
enforcement, or to the National Weather Service when you can do so
safely.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
For late Tuesday through next Sunday.
At the start of the extended forecast period, late Tuesday, the
pattern remains dominated by a weak ridge that extends from Canada
across the northern portions of the state and a large upper level
low in the Bering Sea. This pattern is expected to persist more or
less unchanged through the end of the week and will keep the
Interior warm, the North Slope cold, and provide periods of
showery conditions across the West Coast and Interior. Southerly
winds through the Alaska Range passes are also expected to remain
strong through much of the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ837-849.
     Flood Watch for AKZ818-829.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820-821-827.
     Flood Watch for AKZ830.
     Red Flag Warning for AKZ937.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-850.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817-851-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ858.
&&

$$

Stokes
Fire Weather- Troyke