388
FXAK69 PAFG 152254 AAA
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
254 PM AKDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A deep low is currently located near Cold Bay and will drift
slowly east into the Northern Gulf of Alaska over the next couple
days. A front wrapping around the low will push into the Interior
Thursday and Thursday night and then stall over the interior
Friday and into weekend. Periods of light snow with storm totals
through Sunday in the 1 to 3 inch range is expected across the
Eastern, Central and Western Interior beginning Thursday and
Thursday night and will continue into Sunday. Locations along the
West Coast especially in the YK Delta will see a rain or rain snow
mix with little or no snow accumulation. The highest snow amounts
are expected in Healy and higher terrain north and east of
Fairbanks.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Periods Light snow develop over the area Thursday afternoon and
  Thursday night over the foothills of the Alaska Range and higher
  terrain north and east of Fairbanks and will continue into
  Sunday. Light rain or rain snow mix Friday night will change to
  snow in valley locations by Saturday morning. Heaviest snow
  amounts are expected in Healy and higher terrain north and east
  of Fairbanks. Any daytime melting of snow will likely refreeze
  over night as temperatures drop below freezing.

- Colder temperatures return early next week with highs struggling
  to reach freezing and low temperatures dropping into the 20s
  and teens.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Light rain will diminish late tonight and Thursday and then push
  back into the area again Friday and continue into the weekend.
  Locations along the West Coast especially in the YK Delta will
  see a rain or rain snow mix with little or no snow while the
  rest of the West Coast and Western Interior receive 1 to 2
  inches of snow through Sunday.
- Gusty off shore winds along the  Norton Sound and YK Delta
  Coast will diminish tonight but will remain gusty out of the
  Northeast along the Kotzebue Sound Coast.

- Winds will shift to the West or Northwest in the 15 to 25 mph
  range along the YK Delta Coast on Thursday and will continue
  into Friday. Water levels in the YK Delta will rise 1 to 1.5 ft
  above the normal high tide line Friday to Sunday.

- Colder temperatures return early next week with highs in the mid
  30s and low temperatures dropping into the upper 20s along the
  coast and lower 20s inland.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Snow showers in the Western Brooks Range will dissipate tonight
  as light snow increases over the Eastern Brooks Range and
  Eastern North Slope. Expect 1 to 3 inches in the Eastern Brooks
  Range through the Weekend with less than 1 inch expected over
  the Eastern North Slope.

- Gusty easterly winds will spread from the Eastern Arctic Coast
  tonight to the Central Arctic Coast Thursday and then to the
  Western Arctic Coast by Thursday night. Easterly winds will gust
  as high as 35 mph to the east of Utqiagvik.

- Colder temperatures return early next week with highs in the mid
  20s along the coast and lower 20s inland. Low temperatures will
  drop low 20s along the coast and drop into the single digits
  above zero inland and in the Brooks Range.

- Scattered snow showers are possible along the Western North
  Slope and Western Brooks Range Wednesday.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A deep upper level trough over Siberia and the Northern Bering Sea
will drift east as it digs into the eastern Aleutians and becomes
negatively tilted into the weekend. Weak ridging aloft will
weaken and push east into Canada as the upper level trough drifts
to the east. A deep low currently located vicinity Cold Bay will
push east into the Northern Gulf of Alaska Thursday and Thursday
night and will stall over the Interior Friday and into the
weekend. This will bring widespread light snow to the interior
Thursday night into the Weekend. As the upper level trough digs
south and east over the Eastern Bering Sea and Western Alaska
temperatures will fall over Northern Alaska beginning over the
weekend and will continue to fall well into next week.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Another strong low pressure moves through the pattern Sunday and
Monday and is expected to follow a similar trajectory through the
Southern Bering Sea and into the Gulf of Alaska. There is still
some uncertainty with this system`s exact track and strength. Most
likely the system moves south of the region and results in another
round of northeasterly winds and additional precipitation, more
likely snow than rain. There is however a small chance that this
system moves further north and brings some coastal impacts back
to the West Coast. This `worst case scenario` for the West Coast
would still be significantly weaker than Halong or the coastal
storm before it and impacts from this system would be relatively
minor. The stormy pattern looks to continue into next week, but
the strongest lows are expected to track further south into the
Gulf of Alaska.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Gale Force easterly winds along the offshore waters of the North
Slope on Friday and Saturday will produce 8 to 10 foot seas in ice
free waters offshore between Demarcation Point and Utqiagvik.
West to Northwest winds will develop Friday and continue into
Saturday along the YK Delta Coast. Water levels in the YK Delta
are expected to rise 1 to 1.5 ft above the normal high tide line
Friday into Sunday. Continue to monitor.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-802-850-853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813.
     Gale Warning for PKZ814-860.
     Gale Warning for PKZ815-861.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817-854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ859.
&&

$$