Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
440
FXAK69 PAFG 242359
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
359 PM AKDT Sat Oct 24 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Dry conditions will continue today, as rain/snow chances
builds in west to east tonight into Sunday. Pockets of
freezing rain will be possible across lower elevations around
the Tanana and Yukon Valleys down to Lake Minchumina, with
light ice amounts possible.
- Additional precipitation amounts through Sunday are expected
to be light, around a T-0.25" for most, with 0.25-0.50" in the
Upper Koyukuk Valley region and Alaska Range. Snow amounts
will be a T-2" for most locations, with 3-6" of in the Upper
Koyukuk Valley and through the Alaska Range passes.
- Southerly wind gusts up to 60 mph will persist through tonight
through the Alaska Range passes, where a Wind Advisory remains
in effect. Winds will subside on Sunday, but expect areas of
blowing snow through the passes at times.
- A secondary system will build into the Interior Sunday night
into Monday with widespread rain/snow, pockets of freezing
rain, and breezy winds. Areas of blowing snow will be possible
across higher elevations. Snow levels will rise throughout the
event. Wind gusts will peak for most around 20 to 35 mph.
- Precipitation amounts Sunday night through Monday night are
expected to be around 0.10-0.30" for most, with higher totals
west of FNSB around 0.30-0.50" and drier conditions around a
T-0.10" farther east. Snow amounts will be around a T-2"
across lower elevations and 2-6" across higher elevations.
- Temperatures will continue on a warming trend into next week
with southerly flow in place, with highs climbing to the 30s
to low 40s with overnight lows in the teens/20s to low 30s.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Rain and snow showers will continue across Western Alaska
tonight into Sunday morning as gusty winds persist,
particularly along the West Coast.
- Another pair of strong Bering Sea lows will lift northeast
through the Bering Strait into the Chukchi Sunday into Monday
and again Monday into Tuesday, bringing additional rounds of
rain/snow, gusty winds, and coastal flooding/high surf to
Western Alaska.
- Coastal Flood Watches have been issued from the Bering Strait
north to Point Lay to capture where the highest impacts are
anticipated at this time with the Monday/Tuesday system. High
Wind Watches are also in effect for the Western Arctic Coast,
Bering Strait, and St. Lawrence Island for gusts up to around
60 mph.
- Another system will move in throughout the day Wednesday, with
more rain/snow and gusty winds.
- We are closely watching remnants of Typhoon Champi as it
makes its way into the Bering Sea mid to late week, with
impacts reaching Western Alaska Thursday into Friday. Stay
tuned.
- Temperatures will hold steady or see a warming trend into next
week, with highs in the 30s/40s and lows in the 20s/30s.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- While a mix of sun and clouds and breezy winds continue across
the Arctic Plains/Coast, snow and gusty winds will continue
in the Brooks Range today. Across the Western Arctic Coast,
snow and gusty winds will persist through the weekend.
- Additional snow amounts through the weekend will be around 5
to 10 inches along the Dalton from Coldfoot to Atigun Pass,
with 3 to 6 inches of snow expected at Anaktuvuk Pass and
south of Galbraith to Atigun Pass. Snow amounts will remain
light across the Western Arctic Coast, with dry conditions
expected farther east.
- Gusty southerly winds, particularly over Atigun and Anaktuvuk
Passes, could lead to significant blowing snow at times with
localized blizzard conditions possible.
- Another pair of strong Bering Sea lows will lift northeast
through the Bering Strait into the Chukchi Sunday into Monday
and again Monday into Tuesday, bringing another round of snow,
gusty winds, and coastal flooding/high surf to far Northern
Alaska. Snow may ultimately mix with rain as temperatures warm
into next week.
- Temperatures will see a warming trend into early next week as
highs climb to the 20s/30s with lows in the 20s/30s.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather pattern will continue across Northern Alaska
into next week, as a ridge of high pressure in the Northeast
Pacific maintains a favorable storm track into Western Alaska.
Rain/snow chances will continue across the Western Interior
today with steadier snow in the Brooks Range, as more isolated
showers persist along the West Coast. A pair of strong Bering
Sea lows will lift northeast through the Bering Strait into the
Chukchi Sea Sunday into Monday and again Monday into Tuesday,
bringing additional rounds of rain/snow, gusty winds, and
coastal flooding/high surf to Western Alaska. Across the
Interior, this system will bring widespread rain/snow and gusty
winds, with pockets of freezing rain across lower elevations
around the Tanana and Yukon Valleys. Following yet another
system on Wednesday, we are closely watching remnants of
Typhoon Champi as it makes its way into the Bering Sea mid to
late week, with impacts reaching Western Alaska Thursday into
Friday. Stay tuned for additional information.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A mixed bag of conditions for northern Alaska, as a strong low
in the Bering Sea slowly weakens. Observations show that wind
gusts have started to diminish along the West Coast as a
weakening front moves inland. Concurrently, warm air advection
racing northward has managed to force precipitation to
changeover to rain for sites near the Bering, and anticipate
that the rain/snow line near valley floor-level will move
further inland into the western interior through the weekend as
warmer air continues racing northward. Water levels along the
coastline have already crested but will remain elevated. While
water levels will subside a bit through the remainder of the
weekend, persistent strong southwest flow will keep them
elevated to some degree, and anticipate high surf conditions for
most locations to persist through early next week. In
particular, during times of high tide. Snow will continue to
fall in areas of elevation through the remainder of the weekend,
especially the Brooks Range, and some minor snowfall may even
be possible for parts of the central and eastern interior on
Sunday, should warm air advection prove unable to fully overcome
the current continental airmass. For the West coast, chances of
showers remains as moisture moves along the eastern flank of
the low. The advancing front will weaken substantially as it
pushes east, and expect it to be little more than a handful of
showers by the time it reaches the Fairbanks North Star Borough.
That being said, sufficient moisture will still be present that
orographic forcing along the Central Brooks Range, including
the Dalton Highway, will prove sufficient to generate
respectable snowfall totals, with some light snow possible if
cooler weather prevails for areas closer to valley level, as
noted earlier in the discussion.
As the current system moves northeast into the Chukchi Sea and
decays, the next system arrives right behind it on Sunday,
moving up along an atmospheric river which stretches across the
North Pacific. Fueled by warmer subtropical moisture, alongside
the already existing warmer air mass brought in by the first
low, this system will be primarily a rain and wind event for
most locations at or near valley level, although would not be
surprised if a brief period of snow was possible for the central
and eastern interior, especially for Sunday night. The moisture
plume with this system has fairly respectable IVT values of
~500 kg/ms. This will have a SW flow component with it, enabling
it to thread its way through the Interior, although do not
expect as much moisture as previously with part of the
atmospheric river instead wrapping into yet another developing
low. Alongside a renewed burst of snow for parts of the Brooks
Range, rainfall totals for areas S of the Brooks Range through
Tuesday will reach up to 0.25 to 1 inch. This rain will fall on
top of pre-existing snowpack, and will refreeze as colder
weather returns late in the week. Can`t rule out some minor snow
accumulation during the overnight hours Sunday night into
Monday for valley floors either, though amounts in these areas
will remain less than an inch. Alongside the aforementioned
concerns, anticipate continuing high surf for much of the West
Coast, although the SW flow is not likely to be strong enough
with this system to bring any more substantial coastal impacts.
Still another low arrives Monday into Tuesday, this low looks
to be stronger than the Sunday system, and anticipate the
potential for some coastal impacts for the West Coast,
especially the Seward Peninsula on north. Winds, rain, and more
snow at elevation are also expected with this system, though the
timing and final placement of the low are not yet set in stone.
Ensembles have split into two opposing camps, with some runs
bringing the low closer to the West Coast, while others keep it
over the far western Bering.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Throughout most of the period, two sharply separate patterns
will remain entrenched across northern Alaska. Across the
Central and Eastern Interior, upper-level ridging will persist
over the state, leading to temperatures decreasing, with
occasional rounds of rain and snow showers as shortwaves try to
break through the ridge. Further west, Southwest flow will
dominate the West Coast, allowing for strong fetch to keep
waters high for coastal communities south the the Bering Strait
and keeping coastal flooding a concern through mid-week. As the
ridge continues to deflect systems up through the Bering Sea,
still another Bering Sea Low will approach the state Wednesday,
bringing quite a bit of precipitation to the West Coast and
North Slope into Thursday. Aside from the precipitation though,
this system isn`t exactly all that impressive, being little more
than a slightly amplified shortwave insofar as its dynamic
support in the upper levels. Another stronger system approaches
the state Thursday afternoon/evening. Though this system is
stronger, it may struggle from organization, as its size will
lead to multiple shortwaves spread out over the central
circulation, all vying to become the main center of the low. The
system`s final track will be dependent on which of these
shortwaves wins out, with the more further south solutions
sending the low careening SE into the Aleutians, while a more
northern shortwave winning out would see the low hauled
northward and into the Central Bering through the remainder of
the week and into the weekend.
&&
.COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
A series of West Coast Storms will continue to impact Western Alaska
into early next week. Water levels will peak across the West Coast
through early Saturday before beginning to subside. Specific
water levels and timing of the highest water can be found at
weather.gov/afg in the hazard products (Coastal Flood
Advisories, and High Surf Advisories). Impacts will remain
highest where we have a Coastal Flood Advisory in effect for the
Southern Bering Strait region, with high surf expected across
all of the West Coast up to the Western Arctic Coast.
Water levels will remain high through the weekend and into next
week as we then see another series of systems moving in Sunday
afternoon through Tuesday. This will be accompanied by a long
fetch of southwest winds which should pool some water in Eastern
Norton Sound as well as other west/southwest facing coastlines.
Significant erosion over the long duration event is expected
over most of the West Coast early next week. As far as flooding,
uncertainty remains but there is some concern by Monday
afternoon and Tuesday, especially for the Kotzebue Sound region
where we have issued a Coastal Flood Watch.
Finally, this very active weather pattern we are seeing is
expected to continue to finish out the week as we are closely
watching a system on Wednesday followed by remnants of Typhoon
Champi as it makes its way into the Bering Sea mid to late week,
with impacts reaching Western Alaska Thursday into Friday. Stay
tuned for additional updates.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
As a series of strong storms in the Bering Sea continue to
support rain/snow into next week, we will be closely tracking
any atmospheric river moisture as it builds into Northern
Alaska. The track and timing of the heaviest rain/snow will
continue to be monitored over the coming days, with heaviest
totals expected across higher elevations of the West Coast and
in the Western/Central Brooks Range. At this time, do not see
any noteworthy ARIs, and am not anticipating any rain or
snowmelt related flooding, but we will continue to monitor
should the situation change.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ801-815-817-
818-822-824-825.
High Wind Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday evening
for AKZ801.
Coastal Flood Watch from late Monday night through late
Tuesday night for AKZ801-815-817-818-820.
High Surf Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ802-803.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ809.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ812-831.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ813-814-819.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ820-821.
High Surf Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for
AKZ820-821.
High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday
afternoon for AKZ820-821-827.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 4 PM AKDT Tuesday
for AKZ832-834-835-838.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 4 PM AKDT Monday
for AKZ833.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 10 PM AKDT Monday
for AKZ837-839>844.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 4 PM AKDT Monday
for AKZ845.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ846.
Wind Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ847-849.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ801>806-
809>811-850-852>858.
Gale Warning from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ801-850.
Gale Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ806.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ807-808.
Brisk Wind Advisory until 1 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ809.
Brisk Wind Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ809.
Gale Warning until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ810.
Gale Warning until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ811-857.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ812.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ812-
817.
Brisk Wind Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ813.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ813.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ814.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ816-817-
851.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ816-
851.
Brisk Wind Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for
PKZ858>860.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ859-
860.
&&
$$
KEY MESSAGES...MacKay
SYNOPSIS.......MacKay
SHORT TERM.....Spann
LONG TERM......Spann/Lewis
COASTAL........MacKay
HYDROLOGY......MacKay