810
FXAK69 PAFG 051326
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
526 AM AKDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Generally quiet conditions are expected to continue today with
similar conditions across much of the state in comparison to
yesterday. A deep Arctic low continues to be the main driver for
the forecast period and is expected to swing a series of fronts
across the state from the Chukchi. As the weekend progresses,
instability will continue to develop allowing for isolated
thunderstorm chances to return to the Interior. A cold Arctic
airmass will begin to move south by the end of the weekend. This will
bring a period of seasonably cold temperature across northern
Alaska to start the upcoming week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- Warm and dry conditions will continue across the Interior to
  finish out the week, with highs reaching well into the 60s and
  70s.

- Isolated showers are possible for the Alaska Range, Upper Tanana
  Valley, and Forty Mile Country this afternoon/evening. These
  isolated chances will expand across the Interior for Saturday
  afternoon/evening, with isolated thunderstorms joining the mix.

- Gradually cooling temperatures are expected through the weekend
  into early next week as increasingly scattered showers and
  isolated thunderstorm chances build in starting Sunday through
  midweek next week.

- Dependent on clearing skies, low temperatures Monday night
  through Wednesday night will bottom out in the 30s and 40s for
  most, with coldest valleys dropping to around freezing.

- Gusty west/southwest wind speeds will increase across the
  Northern Interior on Sunday. The strongest winds are expected at
  higher elevations with gusts up to 35 mph.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Dry conditions will continue across Western Alaska through the
  end of the week, with highs cooler on the coast in the
  30s/40s/50s and warmer inland in the 50s/60s/70s.

- Areas of low stratus and fog will continue along the West Coast,
  particularly from the northern Seward Peninsula through the
  Bering Strait to St. Lawrence Island.

- Very isolated showers will build in northwest to southeast
  today, with rain/snow showers and pockets of freezing drizzle
  possible as conditions remain predominantly dry regionwide.

- Isolated showers will then continue through the weekend as
  temperatures see a gradual cooling trend. Lows will be in the
  20s/30s/40s.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Below normal temperatures are expected to continue into early
  next week north of the Brooks Range with highs/lows in the
  20s/30s while warmer air remains situated to the south of the
  Brooks Range where highs in the 40s/50s/60s and lows in the
  30s/40s continue.

- Isolated to scattered showers expected to continue across the
  North Slope throughout the day, expanding to the Brooks Range
  over the weekend into next week. Light snow accumulations are
  expected farther north.

- Temperatures will hold steady or see a cooling trend this
  weekend into early next week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Broad troughing continues across much of northern Alaska. A 500
decameter, Arctic low continues to spin near the North Pole while
ridging in the Bering continues to weaken. This will help lighten
the overall gradient across the state, however some peak diurnal
winds could still gust between 10 and 15 mph during the afternoon.
A shortwave system will be moving south/southeast from the
Chukchi throughout the day, bringing isolated chances for showers
across the West Coast. West/northwesterly flow, aloft, continues
over much of the Arctic Plains with the placement of the 500
decameter low. A series of weak shortwaves will work their way
across the North Slope, providing light snow showers over the next
several days. The shortwave from the Chukchi will eventually
reach the YK-Delta where it will stall out due to another low
moving westerly across the Gulf of Alaska. This will allow some
of the energy from the shortwave to elongate along the
southwesterly flow that is set up across the Interior, setting up
a weak frontal boundary by Saturday. With instability increasing
as well, this will provide the SE portions of the Interior with
isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. These thunderstorm
chances will spread to the rest of the Interior on Sunday as the
Arctic low shifts slightly south, allowing more prominent energy
from the low to move across the state. In addition, this will also
set-up the potential for seasonably cold conditions across
Northern Alaska.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions are expected to persist today, though a pattern shift
is expected towards the end of the week and into the weekend. Upper-
level troughing is expected to build into the state from the north,
leading to the increased possibility of isolated showers and
thunderstorms returning as shortwaves move into northern Alaska. The
greatest chance for thunderstorms are on Sunday for the Interior and
SW Interior with the possibility of gusty winds accompanying these
thunderstorms. High temperatures will begin to steadily decrease and
minimum relative humidities will steadily rise over the next couple
of days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

No changes from the previous hydro forecast discussion.

Sagavanirktok River
Some overflowing is occurring; however, breakup along the Sag
River has not begun yet. Temperatures continue as below normal,
around the low 30s for a high near the coast and the mid to upper
30s for the northern Brooks Range. Going into the weekend and into
next week, much below normal to possibly record breaking
temperatures with lows possibly below 20 degrees and high
temperatures not exceeding freezing, except near the Brooks Range
where temperatures may reach the upper 30s. APRFC reports some
open water for the whole river channel.

Colville River
Fresh Eyes on Ice report from today shows between Umiat at Ocean
Point that the low is up slightly and is more turbid with fewer
but bigger jams present with a lot of stranded ice. APRFC reports
some open to mostly open water with mostly ice still in place by
Colville Village.

Please check weather.gov/aprfc for the latest breakup information.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
An arctic low will bring a front from west to east over Northern
Alaska on Monday promoting widespread rain showers across the West
Coast and Interior, and snow showers along the North Slope. Monday
may feel more like fall than early summer with rain, highs in the
50s to near 60 in the Interior, and 20s on the North Slope. The
Eastern Interior will be a bit warmer and there is a chance for a
thunderstorm, but more widespread rain and cooler temperatures
arrives some time on Tuesday. Cool but drier weather continues in
the wake of this front on Wednesday, then ridging does try to build
back in around Thursday. There is quite a bit of uncertainty aloft
by late next week, but most of the guidance is in agreement for a
warm up to near seasonal norms Thursday or Friday. This would bring
chances for drier weather and thunderstorms once again, especially
in the Interior. There are several upper level features which have
to come into place in order for this to be a longer lasting period
of warm weather, but right now it only looks like a few days before
the pattern gets disrupted again next weekend. We will continue to
monitor as this is crucial information for fire weather.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-850.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
&&

$$

Twombly
Lewis - Fire Wx
Bianco - Extended