062
FXAK69 PAFG 251456
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
656 AM AKDT Tue Aug 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- For Tuesday, expect widespread 0.25" to 0.50" of rainfall.
  The lowest amounts will be in the Upper Tanana Valley.

- Winds through the AK Range will gust upwards of 60 mph in
  Isabel Pass and 50 mph in Windy Pass from around midday
  Tuesday into the evening hours.

- Rain showers will persist on Wednesday. Thursday will come
  with a mix of sun & cloud.

- Another trof will arrive sometime Thursday night/Friday
  morning with rain expected, once again.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- High temperatures will remain in the low to mid 50s through
  the week.

- Tuesday will start off with showers, but the afternoon will
  turn out fairly nice with peaks of sunshine. Wednesday will
  come with a mix of sun & cloud, as well.

- Clouds increase on Thursday with another Bering Sea low
  bringing gusty winds & moderate rain. Expect wind gusts over
  40 mph Thursday afternoon with 0.50" to 1.00" of rain from the
  Seward Peninsula southward, with 0.25" to 0.50" of rain north
  of the Seward Peninsula.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- High temperatures in the 50s/low 60s through Tuesday, then a
  cool-down on Wednesday with highs in the 30s/40s. Remaining
  cold in the eastern Brooks Range on Thursday while warming
  into the 40s/50s in the Western half of the North Slope.

- Rain will transition to snow for Tuesday afternoon/evening and continues
  through Wednesday.

- Snowfall totals through Wednesday will potentially be near 3
  to 6 inches in the highest terrain while remaining around 1
  to 3 inches in Atigun Pass and around 1 inch or less in
  Anaktuvuk Pass.

- Thursday will be drier with some sunshine in the Brooks Range,remaining
  cloudy with isolated showers near the coast.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...Rain will continue to move through the interior Tuesday,
continuing to bring appreciable wetting rainfall amounts. After that
trof of low pressure leaves, another trof moves across Northern
Alaska with light rain showers for Wednesday, & likely bringing the
Brooks Range & eastern North Slope some accumulating snow showers
with accumulations rather low around the Dalton Highway with higher
amounts in the higher elevations of the Brooks Range. Then, a short-
lived ridge of high pressure moves through for Wednesday night into
Thursday, bringing nice weather to the interior & North Slope for
Thursday before another Bering Sea low pushes into the general
Norton Sound area by Thursday afternoon, bringing more wind & rain
for west-central & southwestern Alaska before precipitously
weakening as it pushes eastward through the Interior.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...A secondary trof rotating
around the low center that originated in the Bering Sea, now located
north of Alaska, entering the Beaufort Sea early Tuesday
morning, will bring increased cloudiness, increased chances for
wetting rainfall, & moderated temperatures for Tuesday into
Wednesday morning, especially for the interior.

As the original Bering Sea low center has shifted far enough
northeastward, crossing into the Beaufort Sea as of early this
morning, it will be primarily impacting the coast of northwestern
Alaska with some gusty southwesterly winds through Tuesday afternoon
as the low continues to push northeastward, further into the
Beaufort Sea, & away from the state of Alaska. There is a Special
Weather Statement out for generally the Northwestern Arctic Coast
for increased water levels about 2-3 above their normal high tide
line & winds gusting as high as 25 to 35 mph out of the WSW through
Tuesday afternoon. Since general trofing will be set in over most of
the state into Wednesday, increased cloudiness with wetting rains
for the Interior, & generally high temperatures in the 50s & 60s are
anticipated. The warmest temperatures are expected to occur on
Tuesday in the southeastern portion of our AOR, especially around
the Upper Tanana Valley, which may still reach the upper 60s as they
will be a bit drier & have less cloud-cover as the trofing will not
have fully made it that far eastward until mid-afternoon Tuesday
with the increased cloud cover & rainfall, which will last into the
Wednesday morning hours for that area.

As for notable winds on Tuesday, a tightened south to north oriented
pressure gradient between general ridging to the south & trofing
moving through to the north will cause wind gusts to pick up along
the Alaska Range around Isabel & Windy Passes, to around 60 mph.
There is a Wind Advisory out for Isabel Pass from 10am until 7pm
Tuesday for that. There is turning out to be enough support via
enough dry air moving in aloft behind the trof for the energy to be
driven down to lower altitudes. So, the winds look to be gusty up to
around 20 to 25 mph around the Delta Junction & Fairbanks areas, as
well, following a southerly direction.

The atmosphere will be cold enough for the rain to transition to
snow in portions of the central & western Brooks Range starting on
Tuesday evening & last through a good chunk of the day on Wednesday,
but the snow will initially struggle to accumulate due to the warmer
ground temperatures and the rainfall that the area will have
received, initially. The snow will diminish into snow showers
Thursday morning. Around 3 to 6 inches of snow is expected for the
highest elevations of the mountains & between 1 & 3 inches around
Atigun Pass & around a dusting to an inch around Anaktuvuk
Pass. A Special Weather Statement is also out for this.

Generally speaking, starting Wednesday afternoon, more short-lived
ridging starts to build-in from west to east across the state,
generally bringing decreased cloudiness, drying, & warming
temperatures to the area into Thursday. It will be pushed out by
another Bering Sea low, moving east-northeastward for late in the
work-week, taking a more southerly track, bringing the brunt of the
onshore-flow & high surf / coastal flooding concerns to the general
Nunivak Island area & southward just to the south of our AOR. This
low will rapidly weaken as it comes ashore around or just south of
Norton Sound & pushes across the state, but it will still be
bringing us more cloud-cover, up to scattered showers, & moderated
high temperatures to the region, once again.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...Continuing on from the
short term discussion, as general weak trofing remains in place over
our entire AOR through the vast majority of the long term forecast
period, generally increased cloud cover, isolated to scattered
showers, & moderated temperatures will continue. For Friday, with &
out ahead of the next incoming trof, more enhanced southerly outflow
gap winds are possible for our Alaska Range mountain passes such as
Isabel & Windy Passes with gusts to a similar magnitude, perhaps a
bit lower, as earlier in the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential...For Tuesday into Thursday...The low
originally in the Bering continues to make its way
northeastward into the Beaufort Sea as of early Tuesday
morning. For the northwest Arctic Coast, onshore flow will have
water levels 2 to 3 ft above the normal high tide line through
Tuesday afternoon & WSW winds gusting as high as 35 mph. Water
levels gradually return to near normal levels Tuesday night. See
the Special Weather Statement for those areas for more
information / details.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Before the the trof moves in this afternoon, dry &
warm conditions will continue with high temperatures approaching 70
degrees & Minimum Relative Humidity values as low as in the 40s%
range for Tuesday afternoon. Convective indicies will be quite non-
conducive. Therefore, chances for thunderstorm development are also
quite low. Southwest channeling wind gusts could possibly pick up to
around 10 to 15 mph by midday Tuesday through the Tok Cutoff / Glenn
HWY. This will also help to bring proportionally warmer & drier
weather to the rest of the far eastern Interior into Tuesday. A
tightened south to north oriented pressure gradient between general
ridging to the south & trofing moving through to the north will
cause wind gusts to pick up along the Alaska Range around Isabel &
Windy Passes, to around 60 mph. There is a Wind Advisory out for
Isabel Pass from 10am until 7pm Tuesday for that. There is turning
out to be enough support via enough dry air moving in aloft behind
the trof for the energy to be driven down to lower altitudes. So,
the winds look to be gusty up to around 20 to 25 mph around the
Delta Junction & Fairbanks areas, as well, following a southerly
direction. A trof will push the ridge out of the area, & it looks to
bring anywhere between up to around a quarter of an inch of rainfall
to the Upper Tanana Valley for the Tuesday afternoon through the
Wednesday morning hours. Another quick-moving ridge builds back into
the region for mainly the Wednesday through Thursday timeframe.
Rather gusty winds set back up over the Alaska Range & Tanana valley
for the late work-week as another Bering Sea low pushes east-
northeastward, creating a tightened pressure gradient with similar
directional orientation over that area, once again.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No river flooding concerns as the rivers remain fairly low, but with
continued chances for rain this week and into the weekend, there
will likely be minor rises on the rivers.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM AKDT this
     evening for AKZ849.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for
     PKZ803-805.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Wednesday for
     PKZ804-808-852-855.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT
     Wednesday for PKZ806-854.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT
     Wednesday for PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Wednesday for
     PKZ809-811-857.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ812-
     858.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ813.
     Brisk Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM AKDT this
     evening for PKZ813-858.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ814-
     857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ814.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM AKDT
     Wednesday for PKZ859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ860.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ860.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT
     Wednesday for PKZ860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM AKDT this
     afternoon for PKZ861.
&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...CHAMBERS
SYNOPSIS...CHAMBERS
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERS
LONG TERM...CHAMBERS
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...CHAMBERS
FIRE WEATHER...CHAMBERS
HYDROLOGY...CHAMBERS