852
FXAK69 PAFG 120011
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
311 PM AKST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly clear and cold conditions are expected to persist throughout
most of the week for most locations, with the exception of some
light snow showers possible for some of the more coastal areas where
there is a better moisture source, as well as weak disturbances
situated around the mainland. Expect some areas to get very cold
tonight under mostly clear skies, with some patchy freezing fog
setting up within some of the wind-sheltered valleys, and near
riverbeds. The cold and drier pattern will set in more over the
northern half of the state, while there is some more influence from
troughing for the southwestern and southeastern portions. For the
upcoming weekend, there will begin a transition to a more active
pattern along the coastal areas of the YK-Delta, which may more
impacted by a stronger low pressure system moving up over the Bering
Sea, and this will continued to be monitored in the upcoming days,
as well as the potential for a few locations possibly getting up
near the freezing mark with warmer air advection from the southeast
later in the week, which may potentially cause some icing/freezing
drizzle issues as a result if this occurs.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Widespread light snow showers will continue to be possible
  through tomorrow around the Alcan border, mainly from the upper
  Tanana Valley to the Yukon Flats, with generally 1-3" inches at
  best.

- Clearer skies will continue to support colder temperatures and
  areas of dense fog as conditions turn drier through tomorrow.

- Highs will be generally in the single digits above and below
  zero, and lows will be falling into the negative singles and
  teens for most locations, and possibly negative twenties for a
  few locations.

- Temperatures trend colder later in the week, with highs
  dropping to the single digits and teens with lows mostly in the
  single digits below zero. Coldest spots especially by midweek
  see highs struggle to get above zero with lows reaching the
  double digits below zero. There will be a slight warmup later
  this upcoming weekend and going into the beginning of next week
  as as more southerly flow returns.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Quiet and dry conditions today will give way to a frontal
  boundary lifting northeast into Southwest Alaska tomorrow with
  increasing chances of snow and breezy winds.

- Conditions remain dry across the Western Interior with clearer
  skies supporting areas of dense fog/low stratus and cold
  temperatures.

- Dry conditions remain in place for the West Coast, with
  isolated snow showers further south, ahead of another front
  building into Southwest Alaska tomorrow into Thursday with
  another round of snow and breezy winds.

- Highs in the teens and 20s with lows in the single digits above
  and below zero and teens. Warmer conditions on St. Lawrence
  Island with highs in the 20s and 30s with lows in the 20s.
  Temperatures trend colder overall midweek.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Light snow continues across the North Slope and Eastern Brooks
  Range today throughout the evening. Additional accumulations
  through up to around 1-2", and locally higher across the NE
  Arctic Coast.

- Northeast winds prevail along the Arctic Coast through midweek,
  strongest further west from Utqiagvik to Point Hope.

- Dry conditions return region wide tonight into tomorrow as a
  colder and drier airmass settles in overhead.

- Highs early this week in the teens and 20s across the Arctic
  Coast and single digits and teens for the Arctic Plains and
  Brooks Range, with lows in the single digits and teens to below
  zero further inland.

- Colder temperatures continue to build in mid to late week as
  highs drop mostly to the single digits above and below zero with
  widespread lows below zero. Coldest spots could see double
  digit below zero lows.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Tonight through Wednesday.
An occluding low associated with an exiting trough to our southeast
is allowing for some wrap-around moisture and snow for portions of
the Tanana River Valley. Very light and off snow showers will still
be possible through tomorrow under and area of weak troughing,
mainly over the eastern portions of the Brook Range and portions of
the Yukon Flats along the Alcan border. Overall, higher pressure is
going to continue to strengthen and dominate the mainland throughout
this period in the forecast, with temperatures continuing to plummet
under mostly clear skies across the region. With a colder air mass
settling in, along with clearing and drying conditions, some
portions within the Interior, as well as the Brooks Range/Arctic
Plains could see temperatures getting below -20F tonight. There will
also be some locations within the Brooks Range and North
Slope/Arctic Plains with some possible freezing fog/very light snow.
There could also be some locations along the eastern Arctic Ocean
getting some blow sea spray with possible light rime icing accretion
on surfaces for some of the coastal areas as the onshore flow out of
the northeast becomes more enhanced going into tomorrow over these
areas.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Wednesday night through next Monday.
Models still trend towards higher pressure building in over the
Chukchi Sea,then shifting eastward over the Beaufort Sea, which
will draw in the coldest air mass so far for this season as
northeasterly flow is enhanced across the North Slope. This will
allow for there to be many locations within the Mainland, and
especially for portions of the western Interior and Arctic Plains to
experience sub-zero temperatures, even for highs tomorrow. As
conditions look to remain fairly clear and dry, the overall cooling
trend will continue into the following weekend for most of the
central and northern portion of the state, which most of the snow
activity remaining more confined to the coastal areas. Ensembles
have continued to show that the majority of passing lows will remain
far enough for there to be very little to no impact in terms of
precipitation and wind for the southern portions of the CWA,
however, there is becoming more of a consensus of the deterministic
models which continue to alluded to a possible major shortwave
trough with some extra-tropical moisture that may prove impactful
for some of the coastal areas of the YK Delta if this system takes a
more westerly track towards the Bering Strait, although this is
still quite far out in the forecast. Moreover, there is also some
uncertainty as the track of this system remains uncertain and thus
will continued to be monitored in the upcoming days.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804-808.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807-856.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ810.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812-858-859.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ813-814.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
&&

$$

Stewey