850
FXAK69 PAFG 111432
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
632 AM AKDT Mon May 11 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather pattern continues across Northern Alaska to
start the week, as a front lifts north over the Alaska Range into
the Interior towards the Brooks Range. Gusty winds across the
Arctic Coast today could last for the next few days, leading to
areas of blowing snow and wind chills as low as -25F. In the
Interior, generally warm and mostly dry conditions are expected
today. South flow across the Alaska Range has resulted in gusty
winds through the passes and in Delta Junction which will continue
through tomorrow. Showers (mostly rain) will be possible
in the northern Interior and adjacent coastal areas with a north-
moving front through this morning, although accumulations will
not be very heavy. Minor snow accumulations will be possible in
the Brooks Range and on the North Slope through tonight. Cooler
conditions will prevail today in the Central and Eastern
Interior, with a warming trend resuming on Tuesday. Conditions
will trend drier across Northern Alaska Tuesday ahead of daily
shower chances returning south of the Brooks Range starting
Wednesday.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Scattered precipitation will be possible across the Interior
  today. Precipitation type should be mostly rain, apart from
  higher elevations where snow or a rain/snow mix could occur.

- Somewhat cooler temperatures are expected in the Southern
  Interior today, but highs will quickly rebound Tuesday and
  Wednesday, when they could reach into the low to mid 60s.

- Gusty NE winds continue across the northern Interior early this
  morning but will gradually diminish, becoming light by this
  evening.

- A front will pass through the northern Interior today, bringing
  gusty southerly winds behind it. Southerly gap winds through the
  Alaska Range passes will continue today, with peak gusts of 50
  to 65 mph possible.

- Red Flag Warnings and Wind Advisories are in place for the Delta
  Junction region south along the Richardson Highway today for
  gusty winds, low relative humidity, and dry fuels.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A front will lift north across the northwestern Interior and
  adjacent coastal areas through late this morning, producing a
  band of precipitation which should be primarily rain.

- Warm, southerly flow will allow for highs in the upper 40s to
  near 50 in the Western Interior and in the 40s along the coast.
  A warming trend continues through the week, with much warmer
  temperatures in the mid to upper 50s on Tuesday and Wednesday in
  the Western Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Monday morning, a front brings a band of snow across the Brooks
  Range, arriving north of the Range by the afternoon.
  Accumulations should be generally less than an inch.

- Gusty winds continue across the North Slope today. Winds will be
  strongest along the Western and Eastern Arctic Coast where winds
  could peak upwards of 40 mph.

- Winds could remain elevated through at least Wednesday, leading
  to areas of blowing snow which could significantly reduce
  visibility. A Blizzard Warning has been issued for Point Lay
  through this afternoon due to blowing snow leading to visibility
  at or below a quarter mile.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A ~1024 mb surface high occupies the Arctic north of Alaska and is
driving southeasterly winds on the western Arctic Coast, turning
easterly to northeasterly on the eastern Arctic Coast. This has
resulted in blowing snow and very poor (at times blizzard)
visibility conditions at Point Lay. Windy conditions on the Arctic
Coast are likely to continue through much of the week, although
they are likely to decrease enough on the western Arctic Coast
this evening to reduce blowing snow concerns.

A cold, 517 dm upper low is parked over the northern Bering Sea,
with associated troughing extending eastward across the midsection
of Alaska. Moving through the day today, this troughing and a
surface cold front will shift northward across the northern
Interior and into the Brooks Range, with 850 mb temperatures
falling to around 5 to 7C. With this transient cold air,
temperatures in the Interior and on the West Coast will be a few
degrees colder on Monday than they were on Sunday. The front will
continue northward across the West Coast and Interior today,
reaching the Arctic Plains/Coast by this evening into tonight. It
will bring light snow on the North Slope, with not much more than
about an inch expected in the Brooks Range, and minimal
accumulations on the Arctic Coast.

Temperatures will quickly rebound south of the Brooks Range on
Tuesday, with southerly flow across the Alaska Range and an
amplified ridge building into the Interior from out of
northwestern Canada. The base of this ridge will be in northern
Mexico/the southwestern United States, where the height of the 500
mb level is likely to be around 590 dm on Tuesday. Heights will
not be nearly that high in Alaska but could rise into the upper
540s or 550s dm near the eastern border. Corresponding increases
in surface temperatures will support highs in the low to mid 60s
across the Central and Eastern Interior with dry conditions. This
will likewise support temperatures in the mid to upper 50s in the
Western Interior. Southerly gap winds continue through the Alaska
Range passes and will persist through Tuesday morning, after
which they are likely to diminish, ending by Tuesday night/
Wednesday morning. Warm conditions will continue south of the
Brooks Range on Wednesday, with 850 mb temperatures reaching to
near 5C in the Middle and Upper Tanana Valleys and and over the
Fortymile Country and near 0 elsewhere. Somewhat cooler/showery
conditions will be possible in these areas from Wednesday
evening/night into the late-week time frame as moisture moves in
with southeasterly flow around the northeast fringe of an upper
low near the AK Peninsula.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A low in the Gulf of Alaska merges with a low over western Alaska,
creating a frontal boundary just south of the Alaska Range. This
front will move from south to north over the Interior beginning
Sunday afternoon/evening and into Monday bringing scattered rain
showers and possible thunder to the Interior. Although chances are
relatively low, convective showers with chances for wetting rain are
possible mainly across the AlCan border and parts of southeastern
Alaska. Behind the front, southerly gap winds through the Alaska
Range passes are expected to strengthen to around 35 to 45 mph, with
gusts as high as 65 mph possible. As the front pushes north, high
temperatures will briefly cool into the low to mid 50s on Monday
before warming again into the 60s by Tuesday. With prolonged daytime
heating and warming temperatures through the week, min RH values can
reach as low 25% at times across the Tanana Valley before expanding
into the Yukon Flats and Fortymile Country by midweek.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
At the start of the extended forecast period, the pattern is
dominated by an upper level high over the Arctic Ocean and a very
large region of upper level low pressure moving from the Bering Sea
to the Gulf of Alaska. Higher pressure builds across Northern Alaska
as the upper level low pushes further into the Gulf of Alaska. This
keeps Northern Alaska relatively calm in terms of weather. The
majority of variance in the forecast lies far to the south of the
region so calmer weather with periods of east/northeasterly winds is
very likely throughout the extended forecast period.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 PM AKDT Sun May 10 2026/

.HYDROLOGY...

KOYUKUK RIVER

A Flood Warning is in effect for the Koyukuk River at Hughes for
reported ice jam flooding. The Flood Watch for the wider area
along the Koyukuk River near Hughes also remains in effect.

KUSKOKWIM RIVER

A Flood Watch also remains in effect for the Kuskokwim River at
McGrath for a series of ice jams leading to potential flooding. A
Flood Advisory has been issued for McGrath today to capture minor
flooding impacts. The public reported continued minor flooding
impacts that is currently not impacting any structures or main
roads at this time.

YUKON RIVER

The Yukon River breakup front is currently near Stevens Village,
where the River Watch team noted stronger ice in the canyon
downstream. If the breakup front stalls here, water levels will
rise with the potential for flooding in Stevens Village. A Flood
Watch is in effect for Stevens Village as a result. A Hydrologic
Outlook is also out for the Yukon Flats region.

PORCUPINE RIVER

The breakup front on the Porcupine River is at Fort Yukon today.
The Old Crow gage shows high water levels from snowmelt, which
should reach Fort Yukon by Monday evening into Tuesday. Residents
should continue monitoring the Porcupine River water levels, which
are expected to remain elevated as the ice clears. A Hydrologic
Outlook is also out for the Yukon Flats region.

CHATANIKA RIVER

Members of the public and River Watch officials report continued
ice jam flooding on the Chatanika River west of the Elliott
Highway and along the Tanana River near the confluence with the
Cosna River. Flood Advisories remain in effect for these areas.

CHENA RIVER

Around the Fairbanks region, the Chena River has begun to respond
to warmer temperatures with increased snowmelt leading to rivers
running higher and closer to action stage at the two gages near
Two Rivers and below Moose Creek Dam. With the gage near Two
Rivers hovering right around action stage, monitor these potential
impacts along CHSR: Rosehip Campground typically closes (Mile
27), river access at Mile 28 typically closes, Compeau trailhead
typically floods but is usable, water begins to pond on the
upstream side of CHSR at Mile 36.9, and Stiles Creek shooting
range typically floods.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

Head to www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest hydro information.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services, law
enforcement, or to the National Weather Service when you can do so
safely.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ801.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ837-849.
     Flood Watch for AKZ828-833-852.
     Red Flag Warning for AKZ937.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815-858-860-861.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
&&

$$

DS
Fire Weather - Santiago
Hydrology - MacKay
Extended - Stokes