280
FXAK69 PAFG 111353
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
553 AM AKDT Sat Jul 11 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
It is the start of a rainy weekend for western Alaska as
widespread moderate to heavy rain is making its way north across
the region this morning. Along with the rain, winds will
strengthen, gusting up to 40 mph in the Lower Yukon and Kuskokwim
Valleys and reaching the middle Tanana Valley Saturday evening.
Southerly gap winds through Alaska Range passes will gust up to 60
mph Saturday evening. In the Central and Eastern Interior,
temperatures will peak in the upper 70s to mid 80s on Saturday
before cloud cover begins to moderate temperatures on Sunday.
Thunderstorms will develop in the Interior Saturday, which pose a
threat for fire starts in the Yukon Flats where hot and dry
weather has dried fuels for the past week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Highs in the 70s and 80s are expected in Interior valleys
  Saturday, with a heat advisory in effect for the Yukon Flats
  where temperatures will reach around 85F. Temperatures will
  begin a cooling trend from west to east beginning Sunday.

- Saturday afternoon, thunderstorm coverage shifts back towards
  the Central Interior, over the Dalton Highway Summits and White
  Mountains north of Fairbanks with scattered thunderstorms
  expected over the Yukon Flats.

- Southerly gap winds through the Alaska Range will strengthen
  Saturday afternoon, with potential gusts up to 50 and 60 mph
  respectively through Isabel and Windy Pass.

- A Wind Advisory is in effect for the western portion of FNSB on
  Saturday, including Fairbanks, for potential gusts up to 40 mph.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Widespread wetting rain will arrive in the YK Delta this
  afternoon and travel north through the region through Saturday.
  The current track of the low supports half an inch or more in
  the the YK Delta and Southern Seward Peninsula on Saturday,
  around a quarter in the lower to middle Yukon Valley, and less
  than a quarter in most other regions.

- Winds strengthen with the arrival of the system from the
  Bering. Areas along the coast will see gusts up to 35 to 45 mph.
  Farther into the Interior, gusts will reach 25 to 35 mph. Winds
  will weaken slightly on Sunday, but remain gusty through the
  weekend.
- A wind advisory is in effect on Saturday for southern portions
   of the Western Interior for potential gusts up to 40 mph.

- Fog and low stratus have moved in from the Bering along portions
  of the West Coast and will linger through the weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Max temperatures on the North Slope will peak around 70F
  through the weekend, and into the 60s on Monday. Temperatures
  along the coast will be cooler, in the 50s and low 60s, and in
  the 40s around Utqiagvik.

- Isolated thunderstorms are expected in the central and eastern
  Brooks Range this afternoon. The best chances will be in a
  similar area from Anaktuvuk Pass to Arctic Village.

- Widespread rain will reach the Western Brooks Range from the
  south on Saturday and will continue into the North Slope on
  Sunday becoming lighter.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough is currently working its way north through the
western regions of Alaska, positioned over the Lower Yukon at the
time of writing. The shortwave is propelled by a 542 decameter
low in the Bering, due west of Nunivak Island. Along with this
shortwave is almost an inch and a half of precipitable water. As
a result, there will be widespread rain in the western region of
Alaska throughout the weekend. Total QPF amounts through the end
of the weekend will reach an inch or more on the Southern Seward
Pen and along the YK Delta Coast. In addition to the rain, winds
along the coast will gust in the 35 to 50 mph range. Farther
inland, winds in the western Interior look like they will reach 30
to 40 mph. The center of the low will be positioned over the
Seward Peninsula, so while winds will be southerly in the Western
Interior, Kotzebue Sound and Norton Sound, they will be northerly
through the Bering Strait Coast. The arrival of system will also
lead to gusty southerly gap winds through the Alaska Range. Wind
gusts should peak around 50 mph through Isabel Pass and up to 60
through Windy Pass on Saturday evening, as the front crosses the
range and the upper level pattern becomes aligned south to north
across the Range.

In the eastern half of Alaska on Saturday, a weak ridge will keep
conditions warmer and drier. Temperatures in the 70s and 80s are
expected this afternoon, with a Heat Advisory out for the Yukon
Flats for temperatures in the mid 80s. There is also a Red Flag
Warning for the Yukon Flats for scattered thunderstorms and dry
fuels. After the recent dry and hot weather there this week, FFMCs
are near maximum values.

After the initial shortwave on Saturday, several other shortwave
troughs will spin around the main trough in the Bering and over
Alaska, resulting in further rounds of precipitation and
eventually pushing the weak ridge off to the east. Rain should
abate somewhat on Sunday as the next shortwave takes a track
towards South Central Alaska. However, cloudier and cooler
weather should engulf most of Alaska, keeping temperatures below
80F, staying warmest in the Eastern Interior where the ridge is
strongest.

On Monday, the pattern looks favorable for the shortwave that
went into South Central to pivot and ,move north through the
Central Interior. As the upper-level, pattern aligns south to
north and we should see another round of southerly gap winds
through the Alaska Range, which could stick around longer than
the winds on Saturday. The shortwave will also support the return
of thunderstorms in the Interior on Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper level ridging over Eastern Alaska continues to push east
today as a Bering Sea low moves ashore. As the Bering Sea low pushes
the ridge further east through the weekend, a strong southerly
Chinook pattern takes hold over the central/eastern portion of the
state, leading to warmer and drier conditions. A Heat Advisory was
issued for the Yukon Flats today as high temperatures are expected
to near 85F this afternoon. Elsewhere, temperatures will rise into
the upper 70s this weekend with slightly cooler temperatures
expected early next week. Strong southerly gap winds through the
Alaska Range passes strengthen early this morning, with gusts as
high as 50 to 60 mph expected. Despite the strong gusty winds this
afternoon, critical fire weather conditions are not likely due to
previous rainfall amounts keeping fuels wet and moist. Periods of
gusty southwesterly winds are possible in Fairbanks today as well,
gusting up to 40 mph.

Across the West Coast, widespread rain showers are expected to
persist well into next week as the Bering Sea low taps into large
amounts of moisture from the Gulf. These showers will continue to
move from south to north from the YK Delta up towards the Western
Brooks Range through the weekend. Rainfall totals between 0.25" to
0.50" are possible. Due to cooling temperatures and widespread
wetting rains across the West Coast and Western Interior, fire
weather conditions will be severely limited through most of next
week.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain possible this weekend,
mainly over the Yukon Flats and Central/Eastern Brooks Range where
strong outflow boundaries and frequent lightning are expected.
Outflow gusts may reach as high as 40 to 50 mph at times. By Sunday,
thunderstorm coverage will mostly be limited to the Eastern Brooks
Range and Eastern Arctic Plains, but thunderstorm activity should
ramp down a bit going into next week.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Tuesday through Thursday a Bering Sea low pressure system remains in
place over the West Coast. Disturbances rotate up into the Alaska
Range and over the Interior in a south-southwest flow aloft. Bands
of stratiform rain will continue to move up into the Kuskokwim
Valley and the Western Interior during this time. The unseasonably
cool air and showers will eventually move up into the Central and
Eastern Interior...even getting up into the Yukon Flats. The
southerly winds off the Alaska Range should produce a local
downslope effect in the upper Tanana Valley. Gap winds similar to
today will continue to be monitored through the Alaska Range passes.
Generally a cooling trend should occur across Northern Alaska this
week with highs falling into 60s and mid 50s. Thunderstorm activity
will be minimal during this time...isolated coverage in the favored
Eastern Brooks Range. By Friday ensemble solutions have some
temporary ridging building over the North Slope and Brooks Range as
the mean West Coast trough weakens a bit. This should increase
thunderstorm activity down into the White Mountains and Fortymile.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ830-852.
     Heat Advisory for AKZ833.
     Red Flag Warning for AKZ933.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ841-844-845.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ847.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803-805-852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-807-854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ809-811-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Gale Warning for PKZ850.
&&

$$

Troyke
Maier - Extended
Satiago - Fire Weather