447
FXAK69 PAFG 302220
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
220 PM AKDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- High winds through the ALaska Range Passes will continue to
  diminish as we head into the overnight hours. Winds will stay
  elevated a bit longer through Isabel Pass than Windy Pass.

- Heavy mountain snow across the Alaska Range will continue this
  evening affecting travel along portions of the Parks Highway
  as well as the Richardson Highway south of Trims Camp through
  Saturday.

- Downsloping winds north of the Alaska Range should help keep
  Fairbanks and much of the valley floor mostly dry through the
  short term.

- Unseasonably mild conditions continue into Saturday with highs
  of 10 to 15 degrees above normal. A cool down will follow
  Sunday into Monday as a front brings temps back down closer to
  seasonable norms.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Strong northerly winds wind through the Bering Strain and into
  the NW Bering will slowly diminish overnight, Allowing for
  high surf advisories along parts of the Yukon Delta Coast to
  expire on time.

- Widespread precipitation should transition to mainly snow
  overnight and into Saturday for the western portions of the
  state. Through Saturday snowfall totals will exhibit a range
  of 1 to 5 inches (elevation dependent) across the Seward
  Peninsula, north towards Kivalina, and the Western Brooks
  Range.

- A passing cold front will bring drier and colder conditions
  over to wrap up the weekend before another approaching Bering
  Sea low returns warmer than normal temps, gusty winds, and
  additional precipitation to the region early next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Snow spreads across the region through Saturday with generally
  lighter accumulations for coastal and lower elevations with
  anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of accumulation. Higher totals of
  4 to 8 inches are possible for higher passes including Atigun
  Pass and western Brooks Range.

- Gusty north to northwest winds along the Western Arctic Coast
  will produce areas of blowing snow and localized visibility
  reductions through Saturday.

- Unseasonably mild conditions persist through Saturday with
  highs in the upper 20`s to low 30`s before a gradual cooling
  trend sets in Sunday and into early next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of ex-Typhoon Champi will continue to track
eastwards from the SE Bering into the northern Gulf over the
weekend. As this system continues to weaken, strong winds and
heavy snow through the Alaska Range will subside. Likewise high
surf and strong northerly winds through the Bering will also
slowly ease up. Snow will fall the next couple of days across
portions of the West Coast and through the Brooks Range up onto
the North Slope. An area wide transition to more seasonable
temperatures takes place behind a passing front later in the
weekend. Meanwhile another storm likely enters the Bering next
week, which could bring another round of active weather going
forward.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
An active synoptic setup continues across Northern Alaska the
first half of the weekend before a regime shift towards cooler,
more seasonable air arrives Sunday into Monday. The primary
synoptic feature driving current weather is the decaying remnant
low of ex-Typhoon Champi, currently tracking southeastward
through the Southern Bering enroute to the northern Gulf. A
tight surface gradient remains established early this afternoon
between this feature and higher pressure over western Canada.
Guidance continues to indicate cross-barrier flow with enhanced
southerly gap flow through the Alaska Range passes. By early
Saturday morning, gradients will be relaxing as the low slowly
fills, helping to bring wind speeds down substantially by
Saturday afternoon.

In tandem with the the wind gradient, a strong plume of sub-
tropical moisture riding the eastern periphery of the system
continues to impinge on the southern slopes of the Alaska
Range. Moderate to strong upslope flow will continue to sustain
heavy mountain snow into Saturday before eventually winding
down. Conversely, downsloping and rain-shadowing north of the
Range will keep the Fairbanks bowl and lower Tanana Valley
mostly dry.

By Sunday, broad upper level troughing and post frontal cold
advection will overspread the Interior from the west. Model
soundings show 850 mb temps dropping to around -5C to -8C, which
will help to collapse the thermal ridge that has been in place,
thus driving surface temperatures back a little closer to early
November norms by late weekend. To accompany the cooling trend,
building weak surface high pressure will result in drier,
subsident conditions allowing for a rather quiet finish to the
weekend.

Late Sunday and into Monday, guidance once again shows a Bering
Sea low tracking towards the Aleutians. While this feature will
push yet another thermal ridge and enhanced wind field into the
Y-K Delta, mid-level ridging across eastern Alaska should keep
the precipitation and any significant impacts well south and
west of the Interior domain through at least the early part of
next week.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The extended begins with a weak ridge set up over Northeastern
Alaska. Tuesday, a new low pressure system in the Bering Sea will
begin to track southeast, gradually weakening as it travels along
the Alaska Peninsula through Wednesday. Although there still remains
disagreement in the track of this system, most of the current model
guidance supports the storm moving through Bristol Bay/Northern Gulf
Wednesday night/Thursday morning. However, regardless of which track
the models agree upon, this system will likely remain weak. This
will result in most of the impacts associated with this storm to be
limited to isolated to scattered snow showers, gap winds, and gusty
offshore winds along the West Coast/Western Interior.

As we approach the middle of our extended period on Wednesday,
another storm looks to be approaching. This rapidly moving secondary
low pressure system will pass through the Gulf Thursday morning, and
then trend north, crossing through Mainland Alaska on Friday.
Currently there is high confidence in this storm reaching the Gulf
by the end of next week. However, there is still model disagreement
on the strength and location of this storm during this timeframe.
Similarly to the previous system, the impacts associated with this
storm will likely remain outside of our area, getting blocked by
terrain in southern Alaska. With this storm there is potential for
another round of isolated snow showers throughout Alaska, but will
likely be brief and light. Along with the potential for snow, strong
northerly winds are possible within the Bering Strait, which may
lead to some elevated seas and minor coastal impacts. These storms
will continue to be monitored throughout the week.

&&

.COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
Impacts along the west coast due to ex-Typhoon Champi will
continue to diminish heading into the weekend as the system
tracks into the Northern Gulf and weakens. Looking ahead to next
week, another low enters the Bering and will bring the
potential for additional coastal impacts depending on the track.
At this time confidence in the forecast track and strength of
this system remains low. However the situation will continue to
be monitored going forward.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Surf Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ825.
     Wind Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ837-849.
     Wind Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ847.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight AKDT tonight for AKZ848.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ850.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT
     Saturday for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM AKDT
     Saturday for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM AKDT Saturday for
     PKZ803.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM AKDT
     Saturday for PKZ805.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ806-807-
     854-856.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ806-817-854.
     Gale Warning until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ807.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM AKDT Saturday for
     PKZ808-855.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 1 PM AKDT Saturday for
     PKZ809.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ810-850-
     853.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ814-
     860.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ816-851.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ816-851.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ817.
     Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Saturday for
     PKZ850-853.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM AKDT Saturday for
     PKZ852.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ857.
&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Laney
SYNOPSIS.......Laney
SHORT TERM.....Laney
LONG TERM......Donner
COASTAL........Laney