819
FXAK69 PAFG 172213
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
213 PM AKDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot, dry and windy weather continues in the Northern Interior with
widely scattered to numerous thunderstorms from the Eastern to
Western Interior. Red Flag Warnings are issued and can be found
on our website. Heat Advisories continue for the Central and
Eastern Interior today though will likely be let to expire in most
spots except the Northern Interior tomorrow. There is also
ongoing flooding on the North Slope with Flood Watches, Advisories
and Warnings issued.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Hot weather continues with highs in the mid to upper 80s through
  at least midweek.
- See Heat Advisory for more details.

- Increasing coverage of thunderstorms today with widely scattered
  storms across much of the Southern Interior, with Scattered
  storms from Manley Hot Springs west.
- Scattered storms from Tanana to the Middle Tanana Valley
   tomorrow with isolated to widely scattered storms elsewhere.
- Some storms may be strong to severe, especially tomorrow
    afternoon/evening with 1" hail and/or 60 mph winds possible.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Wide area of thunderstorms likely this afternoon and tonight
  with numerous thunderstorm activity from Galena to McGrath.
- Thunderstorms can persist through the night, and some storms
   may be strong to severe with 1" hail and/or 60 mph winds
   possible.

- Temperatures remain warmer than average in the Interior and
  near, to slightly above normal along the coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Continued warm temperatures with 50s/60s along the eastern
  coast, upper 40s from Utqiagvik southwest, 70s to near 80
  inland and 60s/70s in the Brooks Range.

- Scattered showers with isolated to widely scattered storms are
  expected each afternoon in the Brooks Range and Southern Arctic
  Plain through the end of the week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A 572 decameter high over the Eastern Brooks Range keeps pumping
easterly flow and numerous shortwaves into the Interior which is
sparking thunderstorms each afternoon. This is also the reason
most of the state is very warm. Out west, there is a 545 decameter low
near the Gulf of Anadyr which shears apart and moves southwest
tonight. Otherwise, this big ridge over the Interior will be the
main player in our weather as it hangs around through the week
before models try to break it down. As we know, ridge break down
is not handled well by models and usually, troughs or lows cannot
barrel through the high like some of the models are showing (i.e
the GFS). What will most likely happen is a solution similar to
the CMC, ECMWF and ICON. These keep the ridge in place, and
brings southerly flow to Western Alaska by early next week,
ridging over the Interior, and maybe a degrading ridge by the
middle of next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hot, dry, windy and thunderstorms is the name of the game Tuesday
afternoon. Fortunately in the Northern Interior we will be
dropping our Red Flag Warning tonight as winds lessen.
Temperatures will continue to be around 85 to 90 with min RHs
around 20% from Bettles to the Yukon Flats through Thursday. A Red
Flag Warning in Southwest Alaska is in effect Tuesday afternoon
through Tuesday night for lightning. In the Lower and Middle
Tanana Valley, a Red Flag Warning will be in effect from 4PM
Wednesday through Wednesday night at midnight for lightning as
well. Luckily these thunderstorms will be wet and come with
briefly heavy rain. Otherwise, conditions look to remain warm with
min RHs in the 20-30% range across much of the Interior with the
lowest RHs in the Northern Interior. Thunderstorms will be around
each day through the end of the week, but the most intense
lightning days will be Tuesday in the Western Interior and
Wednesday in the Tanana Valley with the potential for a decrease
in activity on Thursday, though confidence is medium.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Continued flooding on the Colville, Kuparuk and Sag Rivers on the
North Slope. On the Sag, an emergency closure of the Dalton
Highway from Mp 305 to Mp 356 continues due to a major washout at
Mp 315. Water levels have begun to drop on the Sag, there is still
water over parts of the highway, but at the very least, there are
signs of improvement. The Colville at Umiat has crested and will
very gradually drop, but there is still a lot of water that has to
go through there before they are completely out of the woods. On
the Kuparuk, Spine Road has seen some water over it, which is
typical for the area, but with water levels continuing to rise, it
water will likely continue to be on the road. Additional flooding
is expected to occur on these rivers for at least the next couple
of days.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Ridging over the Eastern Interior with southerly to southwesterly
flow over the Western Interior and West Coast. There will likely
be some rain and the potential for cooler temperatures over the
West Coast with shortwaves and lows moving north from the Gulf of
Alaska bringing periods of rain by next week. Thunderstorms and
warm temperatures will continue in the Central/Eastern Interior
and North Slope through the weekend and perhaps into next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Red Flag Warning for AKZ929-930-952.
     Flood Watch for AKZ804>806-808>810.
     Red Flag Warning for AKZ931>934.
     Heat Advisory for AKZ833>835-838>846.
     Red Flag Warning for AKZ938>946.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ855.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
&&

$$

Bianco