280
FXAK69 PAFG 301257
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
457 AM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and showery conditions are looking to continue across the
state over the next couple of days. A series of fronts will work
their way east from the Chukchi and move across the North Slope.
This will continue to provide rain/snow chances to the NW Arctic
Coast over the next couple of days. Temperatures will begin to
moderate across the Interior starting Wednesday, with lows
returning to around 70 by the end of the week. SE portions of the
Interior will continue to see isolated chances for thunderstorms
over the next couple of days as a Bering low continues to track
toward the Panhandle. A deep Arctic trough will gradually be
pushing south over the Bering over the next couple of days. Colder
temperatures are expected to remain offshore, however another
round of gusty, northerly winds are expected for the West Coast
starting Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- Scattered showers will continue through this afternoon across
  the Interior, with best chances for rain and isolated thunder
  for the Upper Tanana and Fortymile Country.

- Below normal temps generally in the 60`s will continue today,
  with temperatures moderating back into the lower 70`s for the
  rest of the week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Gusty southwest winds will continue across the west coast, with
  speeds beginning to diminish by this evening.

- Additional rain chances returning Tuesday evening into
  Wednesday, for the northern portion of the West Coast, as
  another front approaches from the west.

- Chilly temps in the 40`s/50`s near the coast today with lower
  60`s over the western Interior. Temps stay cool near the coast
  but begin to modify for locations further inland Wednesday and
  Thursday.

- Gusty northerly winds settle in across the West Coast by
  Wednesday night as lowers pressure moves south from the Arctic.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Snow showers will continue through this evening across highest
  elevations of the Brooks Range and across the Arctic Coast from
  Point Thomson east to Kaktovik, where a Winter Weather Advisory
  is in effect through 10 PM tonight for a rain/snow mix.

- An arctic cold front will reach the northwest Arctic coast today
  with falling temps expected through the day. Some light mixed
  precipitation is likely near the coast as the front arrives.
  Additional rain/snow will be possible across the western Brooks
  Range and western North Slope through the end of the week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Broad troughing continues to set up across the state. A series of
closed lows and shortwaves will be working around the state,
leading toward a slightly complex pattern by the end of the
forecast period.

Satellite imagery from earlier this morning shows the remnants of
a frontal boundary continuing to linger over the Brooks Range.
This helped provide the NE portion of the Arctic Coast with mixed
precipitation yesterday. The associated upper-level shortwave will
continue to shift NE into the Arctic. Meanwhile, the 525
decameter Arctic trough will continue to provide the North Slope
with west/southwest flow, aloft, allowing scattered showers to
continue through the middle portions of the week. Another
shortwave will begin to move westerly across the NW Arctic Coast
late tonight into Tuesday morning. This is in association with the
Arctic trough extending farther south to the Kotzebue Sound. One
noticeable difference compared to yesterday is that models are now
showing the potential for this trough to close off and move
farther south down the Bering Sea. A much colder airmass will
accompany this system, but majority of it is expected to remain
offshore. However, this will set-up most of the West Coast with a
round of gusty northerly winds starting Thursday afternoon and
lasting through the end of the week.

Looking back to the south, the Bering low continues to move
across the Upper Kuskokwim and is expected to reach the northern
Gulf of Alaska by this afternoon. The low is then expected to
continue shifting SE down the Alaska Panhandle and become closed
off again by the mid week. This will continue to support easterly
flow, along with some decent moisture advection, across the
Interior. This will allow for isolated showers and thunderstorms
over the next couple of days. The easterly flow will also provide
a slight warming trend as well by the midweek. A shortwave system
will wrap around the low and move across the Yukon late Wednesday
into Thursday, providing continuous chances for thunderstorms
across a larger portion of the Interior.

Another low will be moving westerly along the north side of the
Aleutians, reaching Bristol Bay around Thursday morning. This will
continue to provide the broad troughing pattern across the state.
Recent model runs are now showing this low to move across the
Alaska Peninsula, and work its way into the central portion of the
Gulf. Some subtle ridging is expected to build up between this
low and the one shifting south from the Chukchi, that was
mentioned earlier. However, models are not showing as strong of a
ridge to form. In addition, they are also showing the low from the
Aleutians to shift farther east into the Gulf, which is allowing
for the deepening trough from the Arctic. This will also work to
stall some of the easterly flow coming across the Interior and
allow scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue through the
end of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Low pressure over the majority of Alaska continues to keep any
particularly hot and dry weather at bay, although it will be
getting slightly warmer for most areas through the week. Daily
high temperatures will likely only be in the 60s for most of the
Interior again Tuesday. Wednesday, temperatures in the Interior
will warm back up into the 70s, but not much higher beyond that.
Daily minimum relative humidity will remain moderate, but decrease
toward the 40 to 35% mark through Wednesday. While winds will be
light for most of the Interior on Tuesday, winds in the northwest
and southeast corners will be notably stronger. In the northwest,
southwesterly winds will gust up to 20 mph in the valleys and
close to 30 in higher terrain. In the Upper Tanana Valley,
northwest winds will gust up to 30 mph. Wednesday, winds should
become generally light across the Interior. The southeast Interior
will clear out enough to for a few isolated thunderstorms to
develop Tuesday and Wednesday, with the main area of development
reaching from the eastern Alaska Range to the White Mountains to
Fortymile Country. As systems shift around the state, thunderstorm
coverage moves to the Central Interior on Wednesday and toward
the Western Interior and Seward Peninsula on Friday. As a low
enters the Gulf Tuesday evening into Wednesday, we will see
chances for wetting rain wrap around into the southeast Interior.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Recent heavy rainfall has led to rises of rivers and streams
throughout portions of the Brooks Range leading to minor flooding
of Slate Creek and the Koyukuk River from Coldfoot north to
Atigun Pass. Latest gauge observations show that both sites have
peaks and continue drop. Slate Creek at Coldfoot has dropped out
of action stage as of 1045pm Monday night. Water levels are
expected to continue dropping over the next couple of days.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Model consensus is starting to converge on a solution for the end
of this week. The low that was anticipated to split off the
Arctic Trough and dig into the Bering Strait is now the Arctic
trough closing itself off and digging into the Strait. This makes
the low considerably stronger than yesterday`s model runs. The
stronger version of this low will bring strong northerly winds to
the Bering Strait and Bering Strait Coast, as well as
precipitation totals between 1/4 and 1/2 of an inch on the West
Coast. The upper level low currently over southwest Alaska swings
northeast into the Yukon Thursday evening, bringing rain to higher
elevations in the Southeast Interior. This could potentially
bring heavy precipitation to the northeastern slopes of the Alaska
Range and in Fortymile Country, but there is currently over a 1/2
an inch of spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles in the
NBM for 24 hour rainfall on Friday.

Some ensembles are hinting at ridging building in Alaska Saturday
or Sunday, but consensus is low at this time.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......Twombly
KEY MESSAGES...Twombly
SHORT TERM.....Twombly
FIRE WEATHER...Troyke
HYDROLOGY......Twombly
EXTENDED......Schlezinger