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FXAK69 PAFG 060050 AAA
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
450 PM AKDT Tue May 5 2026

Updated Hydro Section

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system pushing across Northern Alaska is bringing areas
of rain and snow to much of the Interior. Gusty south winds in
the Alaska Range will diminish through this evening. In the
Central and Eastern Brooks Range and on the North Slope, snow
could be heavy in some areas. On the eastern Arctic Coast, blowing
snow will is expected from this evening into Thursday with gusty
westerly winds. Colder conditions are expected across the
Interior/West Coast beginning Wednesday and Thursday, with
isolated thunderstorms in the Eastern Interior Thursday afternoon.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Southerly winds through the Alaska Range passes are gusting at
  30 to 45 mph but will decline through the night tonight.

- A cold front brings colder, occasionally gusty winds and
  chances for precipitation into the Interior Tuesday afternoon.
  Expect widespread rain/snow in the Central and Northeastern
  Interior. Rain will be favored during the day with snow favored
  overnight and at higher elevations. Minimal snowfall
  accumulations are expected.

- Daytime high temperatures will be cooler through Thursday,
  likely only reaching the mid/upper 40s Wednesday. Similarly, low
  temperatures will cool into the low 30s, allowing for some
  patchy areas of frost to develop overnight.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Frontal rain/snow in the Western Interior including near McGrath
  is expected to end outside the mountains by late this evening
  into tonight.

- Breezy north/northwest winds strengthen Tuesday night as the
  front advances inland. Interior winds subside Wednesday evening
  but remain strong along the Northwest Arctic Coast and into
  Kotzebue Sound. Thursday, the strongest winds move to the
  southern Bering Strait.

- Temperatures will remain cooler than average across the western
  half of the state. High temperatures along the coast will be in
  the low 40s farther inland. Lows will range from the upper
  teens across the Seward Pen and Kotzebue Sound to the low 20s
  across the Western Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Snow showers continue in the Central/Eastern Brooks Range and
  across the Eastern Arctic Coast. Widespread snow showers are
  expected to reach Utqiagvik by late Tuesday night. Snow
  accumulations of 4 to 7 inches will be possible through Thursday
  between Utqiagvik and Nuiqsut.

- Total snow accumulations between 4 to 8 inches are possible
  through Atigun Pass as the frontal boundary stalls over the
  Central Brooks Range Tuesday through Wednesday.

- North to northeast winds, at times gusty, will allow for
  localized areas of blowing snow to develop through Wednesday
  night where there is fresh and/or falling snow.

- Conditions begin to clear along the North Slope as high pressure
  descends from the Arctic on Thursday.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Rain and snow is occurring across parts of the Interior along a
stationary front extending from the Western Brooks Range
northeastward to the Central/Eastern Brooks Range. With a cold
air mass across Western Alaska, there is a gradient of
precipitation type across the front, with snow on the back side in
the colder air and rain ahead of it. This will shift eastward
through this afternoon, with showers likely across the Eastern
Interior by late Wednesday morning. Snow will also be possible
with any showers overnight tonight as temperatures cool down. Snow
will also be favored in the higher elevations (especially above
2000 feet), including the White Mountains, Dalton Highway Summits,
and the Alaska and Brooks Ranges. Any snow that manages to
accumulate in Interior valleys will likely be short-lived due to
abundant surface heating during the daytime periods and residual
ground heat.

In the Central and Eastern Brooks Range, final snow totals
through Wednesday morning could exceed 6 to 8 inches with upslope
flow. In the Arctic Plains and on the Arctic Coast, most areas
will see the potential for at least a couple inches of snow
through Thursday. Along the Arctic coast between Utqiagvik and
Nuiqsut, around 4 to 7 inches of snow will be possible, with
higher totals possible offshore over the sea ice. On the eastern
Arctic Coast, the winds are currently light but will turn to
the west tonight as the front moves north. Given the likelihood
for a couple inches of light snow during this same time frame,
blowing snow will be possible with these winds. On Wednesday, as
a shortwave trough transits across the Eastern Interior from the
southwest, isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the area,
especially in the Fortymile Country. Any storms will likely be
limited to mostly the higher terrain near the eastern border of
Alaska.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High temperatures in the Middle and Upper Yukon Valleys, the
Fortymile Country, and the Yukon Flats will fall from the 50s
today in most areas into the 40s Wednesday behind a front. Showers
will occur along the front as it shifts east but will likely drop
under a tenth of an inch of additional liquid-equivalent
precipitationin most Eastern Interior valleys. Highs will rise
back into the 50s by Friday with potential further warming early
next week. In the Western Interior, cooler conditions in the 40s
or upper 30s will prevail through the period with a cold airmass
focused over the area, although the dry air in place will permit
min RH values in the 40s and 50s. Minimum relative humidity values
in the 30s and 40s are likely across the Upper Tanana Valley and
Fortymile Country today and will expand to the Yukon Flats and
Middle Tanana Valley from Wednesday through Friday. Parts of the
Delta Junction to Tok areas could see RHs fall into the 20s.
Warmer and drier conditions will be possible early next week with
the chance for southerly downsloping across the Alaska Range.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
***NEW*** A Flood Warning has been issued at Eagle at 4:30PM AKDT
 Tuesday May 5th. According to reports from Eagle, the ice has
 stopped moving and water has begun to gradually rise. River water
 has been observed on the road between the town and village. If
 the ice jam continues to impound water, this may result in rapid
 rises upstream.

Otherwise, as of 10 am the local breakup front had not yet
reached Calico Bluffs. Aerial observations on Monday found all
Yukon tributaries from the Canadian border to Coal Creek open and
creating small areas of open water where they entered the Yukon.
The ice in the same region was showing signs of weakening. A flood
watch was issued for the Upper Yukon region (Canadian border to
Coal Creek). Ice jams may form as the breakup front progresses
downriver and cause localized flooding. Downstream of Coal Creek
the ice appeared to be stronger (more white/blue ice) and more
remnant snow remained in the low lands. River Watch flights will
begin on Wednesday (weather permitting) and updates on breakup
progression will be provided as information becomes available.

If you live near or along the Yukon River monitor ice movement
and water levels; stay alert and be prepared to take action. Stay
tuned to further developments by listening to your local radio,
television, or NOAA Weather Radio for further information.

For online information, see http://www.weather.gov/aprfc

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Friday through Monday.
Cold air will still be present in Western Alaska with an amplified
trough in place over the area. Substantial moisture with a
shortwave trough/front from the North Pacific will push into the
Eastern Interior Saturday; this will allow for scattered to
numerous showers, mostly over the higher terrain, across much of
Northern Alaska moving into next week. Southerly flow on the east
side of the trough could lead to much warmer conditions by Sunday.
Troughing could begin to shift westward by late this weekend into
early next week, although there is high uncertainty on exactly
how this could play out due to model uncertainty. Regardless,
south flow is likely to persist, with temperatures potentially
nearing 60 in Interior valleys next week and continuing showers
across much of Northern Alaska, especially in the higher terrain.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ835.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ805.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-809.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812-858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
     Gale Warning for PKZ815-861.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
&&

$$

DS