180
FXAK69 PAFG 062201
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
101 PM AKST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and windy conditions continue across the Interior through
Sunday. Winds decrease rapidly Monday, but cold temperatures
remain. Mostly clear and dry weather expected through the week,
except for Monday and Tuesday along the North Slope where a weak
front brings some clouds and snow chances across the Arctic Coast.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Areas of stratus clouds are diminishing in coverage, allowing
  valley temperatures to drop into the 20s and 30s below zero with
  a few 40F below zero readings.

- Cold and windy this weekend for most of the Interior.
 - N/NE wind increases significantly Saturday from the Yukon
    Flats southwest. Gusts above 1000ft may be upwards of 30 to 50
    mph whereas valleys can see gusts up to 35 mph (WHEN the
    inversion breaks). This continues into Sunday PM, then
    weakens.
 - Ambient temperatures through Sunday, with no clouds or wind,
    between 20F to 40F below zero. A few colder spots, especially
    north and east of Fairbanks may hit 45F below. Valley
    temperatures may increase with winds, but wind chills of -40
    to -60 are expected when these winds reach valley floors.
 - Wind chill values of 40 to 60 below zero from Tanana to the
    Yukon Flats this weekend. Significant blowing snow is expected
    in the higher terrain above 1500ft. Periods of blizzard
    conditions are expected along portions of the Steese/Dalton
    Highway Summits and along the southern slopes of the AK Range.
 - This could be a significant wind event and end up being
    impactful as it could lead to tree damage and power outages.

- Colder and calm weather prevails next week with minimum
  temperatures dropping between 30F and 50F below zero. A few
  colder spots in the Yukon Tanana Uplands (like Chicken) may
  approach 50F below zero.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- A cold trend continues through the weekend. Expect minimum
  temperatures in the single digits above and below 0 along the
  coast and in the teens to 30s below zero in the Interior
  Valleys.

- North-northeast winds increase today. Wind gusts may be up to 30
  to 40 mph along the coast from the Seward Peninsula south.

- Winter weather advisories have been issued for the Middle to
  Lower Yukon Valleys and the Eastern Norton Sound for blowing
  snow and dangerous wind chills. Gusts of 35 to 50 mph could lead
  to periods of blowing snow and wind chills as low as 50F below
  zero.

- Blizzard warnings for the Upper Kuskokwim and Western Alaska
  Range have been downgraded to Winter Weather Advisories. The
  snowpack was not as blowable as initially expected and prolonged
  periods of blowing snow are no longer expected. Dangerous wind
  chills remain a threat with wind gusts of 30 to 50 mph that
  could lead to wind chills as low as 50F below zero.

- Winds weaken Monday and temperatures decrease again next week.
  Lows potentially in the 30s/40s below zero in the Interior and
  single digits/teens below zero along the coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Most of the light snow chances have ended. There is another
  chance for light snow Monday night into Tuesday as a front
  approaches. Up to 1 inch of snow is possible.

- Widespread temps in the 20s and 30s below zero with some 40F
  below readings possible.

- Northerly winds increase today up to 10 to 15 mph along the
  coast and up to 25 to 35 mph through Brooks Range passes. Wind
  chills fall to as cold as -60F through the Brooks Range passes.

- Wind diminishes Sunday with a warming trend into the early part
  of next week as clouds increase in coverage with chances for
  snow.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
For Saturday through Tuesday.
At the start of the forecast period Saturday, a strong 553
decameter upper level high and a 501 decameter upper level low are
creating a very strong jet of winds aloft over the region. This
jet of strong winds is creating strong gusts near the surface
which, when combined with the very cold temperatures (-22C to -32C
at 850mb) is creating areas of dangerous wind chills. This
pattern is additionally very dry and has left most of the Interior
completely clear. Strong temperature inversions in the valleys
and the very stable and cold air within them is limiting the
strongest winds from completely reaching valley floors. Clear
conditions and very low sun angles encourages the formation of
strong inversions and winds threaten to mix out these inversions.
At higher elevations, gusty conditions prevail, but the ambient
temperatures aren`t quite as cold. Dangerous wind chills are still
a threat however, as well as the potential for areas of low
visibility due to blowing snow. This snow would be from the snow
seen earlier in the week across the Interior as we are too dry to
produce any new snow where the strongest winds are.

This windy pattern lasts through Sunday, although slowly weakens
as the high and low even out slightly. Sunday night through
Monday winds decrease rapidly bringing the region to mostly calm
conditions by late Monday. The wind chill threat will end, but
ambient temperatures in Interior Valleys will once again decrease
into the -30F to -45F range with the coldest spots potentially
reaching as low as -55F. Clearer and calmer conditions persist
through most of the region through Friday, except for the North
Slope where a weak shortwave feature rotating through the
weakening high and low pattern will pass over the area Monday into
Tuesday bringing clouds and the chance for light snow.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
For Tuesday night through next Saturday.
At the start of the extended forecast period Tuesday night, a
strong ridging pattern extends over the Bering Sea and weak
troughing sits over the Eastern portion of the state. This ridge
acts as a shield for the Interior deflecting lows attempting to
move into the region to the south or north. Model agreement is low
on exactly how each weaker low pressure system moves as it
interacts with the higher pressure ridge, but this feature will
likely keep the region below our normal temperatures through the
end of next week. There is however a chance that a strong enough
low could try and move over the top of the ridge pattern and
actually make it into Northern Alaska. Should this happen it could
push out the cold air that has settled over the region and lead to
a period of warmer, cloudier conditions with chances of snow.
Otherwise cold and dry conditions will dominate the state through
the end of next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ809>811.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ848-850.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ824-829-830-851-852.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ832-834.
     Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ833-838>847.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-804.
     Gale Warning for PKZ805-852.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816-817.
     Gale Warning for PKZ850.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ854.
&&

$$

Stokes