020
FXAK69 PAFG 032317
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
317 PM AKDT Thu Sep 3 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Wet and windy conditions will be the primary weather focus for
much of western and Interior Alaska over the next several days.
A storm system in the Bering will continue to tap into a deep
stream of moisture and bring it north into the Western and
eastern Interior through at least early Sunday. Meanwhile the
North Slope is still feeling a lot like winter with colder
temps and occasional snow showers as a separate system slowly
tracks east across the Beaufort. By late weekend both systems
will begin to loosen their grip on the region, but more
unsettled weather will be possible heading into next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Widespread rain will continue to push into the region this
  afternoon and into this evening as a warm front approaches
  from the southwest.

- Rainfall is expected to be moderate to heavy at times
  overnight tonight into Friday and again Friday night into
  Saturday as an Atmospheric River associated with a low in the
  Bering continues to supply deep moisture to the Western and
  Central Interior.

- Total rainfall of 1.00 to as much as 2.50 inches of rain will
  be possible over the course of the next few days. This
  represents annual return intervals of up to 10 or even 25
  years for some locations.

- Local main stem rivers will see significant rises, but should
  be able to handle the expected excessive rainfall. However
  smaller streams and rivers that feed the main stem rivers
  could experience minor flooding.

- Despite the deep moisture push, portions of the Upper Tanana
  Valley and Fortymile region may remain mainly dry.

- Warmer conditions are expected in the days to come, especially
  in areas where the rain is less intense.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Rainfall coverage diminishes along the West Coast later
  tonight as an atmospheric river moves east of the area.
  However, parts of the Western interior will continue to see
  periods of moderate rainfall through Saturday.

- Current rainfall along the west coast will likely amount to
  between 0.50 to 1.00 inches across Western Alaska through
  tonight, with locally higher totals at St. Lawrence Island up
  to around 1.25 inches.

- S/SW winds along the Yukon Delta coast and into the Norton
  Sound will diminish somewhat in speeds to between 20 and 30
  mph. However do to a long fetch of these southerly winds
  through the Bering, water levels are expected to continue to
  rise, especially for the Norton Sound where High Surf
  Advisories remain in effect through Saturday morning.

- Water levels could potentially reach 2 to 4 feet above the
  normal high tide, with highest levels expected around Golovin
  and Elim Friday morning. A secondary water level rise is
  expected Saturday morning around the time of high tide.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Winter`s chill will remain for another day or so as a low
  north of the Arctic coastline continues to bring bands of
  mainly light snow to portions of the North Slope.

- The warm front associated with a low in the Bering will reach
  the western and central Brooks Range tonight and early
  Friday. Widespread mainly light precipitation is expected with
  it`s arrival.

- Snow will develop at higher elevations, but the moisture plume
  is expected to shift eastwards with time, allowing for most of
  the snow over the Brooks Range to shift eastwards as well.
  Accumulations should remain rather light ranging from 1 to 3
  inches depending on elevation.

- Temperatures will hold steady through the first half of the
  weekend, with highs in the 30s/40s and lows in the 20s/30s.
  High elevations of the Brooks Range tonight could drop to
  around 10-20F with wind chills down around 0-10F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
While an upper low over the eastern Beaufort continues to supply
some light snow showers for the Arctic coastline and North
Slope, it is expected to continue slipping east as surface high
pressure settles into the central Beaufort, helping to settle
things down across the north for a few days. However a stubborn
upper low spinning out over the western Bering continues to
provide lot`s of impactful weather for areas from the Brooks
Range south and west.

The general circulation around the Bering low in concert with
upper ridging that has built into southcentral Alaska is
bringing a steady southwest flow pattern to much of western and
central Alaska. Initially this is being realized at the surface
as a warm front that reached the Seward Peninsula around
daybreak today with widespread light to moderate precipitation
and should be impinging on the Brooks Range as early as
tonight. While pockets of heavier rainfall will continue along
the frontal boundary itself, the primary focus for sustained
significant rainfall will be along an Atmospheric River that is
attached to the warm front. Satellite imagery continues to show
a healthy AR stretching from about 35 degrees latitude
northwards over Bristol Bay and into the western Interior as of
this writing.

With the north Pacific ridge continuing to shift a bit to the
southeast, this AR is expected to tilt more to the east, thus
placing the highest available moisture content over portions of
the central Interior Friday and Saturday. This is a trend that
models latched onto a couple of days ago and continue to
advertise. Current ECMWF EFI (Extreme Forecast Index) products
indicate that the heaviest rainfall associated with the AR
across the Interior will primarily focus along a line that
stretches from McGrath northwards to Bettles and eastwards to
near the Fairbanks metro area. It appears as if the heavy
rainfall will occur Thursday night into Friday morning with a
secondary push across the same area Friday night into Saturday
morning. 48 hour QPF values of well over 1.00 inch to as much as
2.50 inches will be possible through Saturday afternoon.

Aside from the heavy rain threat, there is still the issue of
stronger winds associated with the Bering low as well. It
appears as if the strongest winds through the Bering and into
Norton Sound are subsiding as the flow becomes more southerly.
However this is resulting in mainly onshore flow that will
continue to result in high water levels along the west coast,
especially northern and eastern Norton Sound. More on this is
found below in the "Coastal Hazard Potential" section.

Coastal Hazard Potential...

A low in the Bering will continue to allow for sustained
southerly flow through the north Bering into the Norton Sound
for the next couple of days. Due to the long fetch of southerly
winds over open water, water levels could rise 2 to 4 feet above
the normal high tide line in the Norton Sound, and 1 to 2 feet
above the normal high tide line along the Yukon Delta Coast.
Water levels are expected to peak Friday morning and again
during the period of high tide Saturday morning. As a result we
have issued a High Surf Advisory for coastal areas of the
eastern Norton Sound where guidance is showing the highest water
level rises at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The active and unsettled weather pattern is expected to continue
across Northern Alaska through midweek as the ridging currently
situated over the southeast shifts further east into Canada. The
movement of the low allows for a broad area of troughing to develop
over the state, with multiple embedded shortwaves and remnant fronts
circulating through the overall pattern. With each passing
shortwave, showers will return bringing more moisture into Northern
Alaska. Attention then shifts to a new low pressure system that is
expected to work its way into the Bering Sea from the Pacific,
bringing strong winds and elevated waves. The landfall of this new
low is where the greatest uncertainty currently lies with current
model runs forecasting a track that is expected to make landfall in
the southern YK Delta. A low track further south would reduce
potential impacts for the Norton Sound and West Coast, however
should the low track further north, potential for coastal erosion
could occur with strong winds driving higher waves to the coast.
Stay tuned for updates.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
After a chilly morning temperatures are slow to rise across the
Southeastern Interior this afternoon. This afternoon a ridge will
begin to settle into the region bringing warmer temperatures, drier
conditions, and a brief stint of gusty gap winds. The southerly gap
winds will begin to ramp up west to east across the Alaska Range
with the Tok Cutoff seeing winds begin around 4PM this afternoon.
Today was anticipated to be driest day, but with southerly gap winds
lagging behind, minimum RH values may struggle to get below 40%.

A low pressure in the Bering Sea is bringing a warm front sweeping
up and over the aforementioned ridge bringing moderate to heavy
rainfall to the Central Interior and parts of the Fortymile Country.
Over the next few days we could see 0.5" to 2.5" of rainfall across
the Central Interior. Unfortunately the ridge is expected to remain
over the far Southeastern Interior keeping the Upper Tanana Valley
and the Fortymile Uplands dry.

This pattern will continue for the next few days as the low in the
Bering brings reinforcing shortwaves of energy. As the ridge
eventually weakens and gets pushed off to the east Saturday
afternoon, a weak shortwave trough will move through the far
southeastern Interior. This trough could produce enough instability

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Surf Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM AKDT
     Saturday for AKZ822-824.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ806-
     854.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ807>810-855-
     856.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ811-857.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT
     Friday for PKZ812-858.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ814.
     Brisk Wind Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ814.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......Laney
KEY MESSAGES...Laney
SHORT TERM.....Laney
LONG TERM......Cruz
COASTAL........Laney
FIRE WEATHER...Dennis
HYDROLOGY......Lewis