145
FXAK69 PAFG 011324
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
524 AM AKDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- A front moves south to north bringing snow Thursday. There may
  be some slick spots as snow begins to accumulate Thursday
  morning.

- Snow accumulations by Thursday afternoon will be around 6 to
  11 inches in Isabel Pass, up to 1" around Fairbanks with 1 to
  3" north and east of Fairbanks.

- Other than lingering snow showers Friday and Saturday, there
  will be a drying trend with chilly temperatures through
  Saturday. Friday and Saturday mornings may be the coldest of
  the season so far depending on cloud cover. Lows Friday and
  Saturday morning likely in the teens and low 20s.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Relatively calm and dry conditions expected Thursday through
  Saturday.

- Temperatures cool a few degrees through Saturday with lows in
  the teens and 20s each morning and highs mainly in the 30s to
  near 40. Temperatures gradually rise later in the weekend.

- Sunday a low approaches the southeastern Bering Sea bringing
  increased easterly winds and another round of rain showers to
  the West Coast and Western Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Areas of snow persist on the North Slope. Expect 2 to 4 inches
  of storm total snow along the Eastern Arctic Coast through
  Friday. A few areas may see up to 6 inches over 3 days.

- A drying trend arrives this weekend with temperatures
  remaining cool. Expect high temperatures in the 20s with lows
  in the single digits and teens. The Brooks Range may get
  temperature readings below zero Friday and Saturday mornings.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold low pressure system over the North Slope brings snow and
windy conditions across the Arctic Coast, and cooler snowy
conditions across the Central and Eastern Interior Thursday.
Temperatures warm across the West Coast and Interior this
weekend. Additional precipitation is possible early next week
across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At the start of the forecast period, Thursday,the overall
pattern remains dominated by a broad trough across Northern
Alaska. A surface low that was in the Gulf of Alaska Wednesday
afternoon has moved northeast towards the Southeastern
Interior provides additional moisture to the Central and Eastern
Interior Thursday. A surface low at the bottom of a quite cold
column of air rests over the Central North Slope. Within this
column a tightly wound bunch of vorticity and 850 millibar
temperatures in the -15 to -20 Celsius range. The combination
of these two features enhances precipitation across the Central
and Eastern Interior. Cold temperatures pushing south from the
North Slope low allow for more of this precipitation to fall as
snow and will allow for several valley locations, including
Fairbanks, to see their first snow accumulations of the season.

The low from the Gulf of Alaska continues north across Eastern
Alaska and reaches the Eastern Arctic Coast early Friday. This
low combines with the Arctic Coast low and brings additional
snowfall to the Eastern Arctic Coast and strengthens westerly
winds. The combination of these two impacts could lead to areas
of reduced visibility due to blowing snow, but the winds are not
expected to become strong enough to significantly reduce
visibility. Meanwhile a low moving along the Aleutians towards
the Gulf of Alaska disrupts the overall pattern enough to allow
for higher pressure to push north across Northern Alaska Friday
into Saturday which will clear the Interior Friday morning
allowing for colder morning low temperatures, but allow for
slightly warmer temperatures to follow going into the weekend.

Near the end of the short term forecast period Sunday, another
strong low moves east through the Bering Sea towards Bristol
Bay which is expected to extend a front over the West Coast and
Interior bringing additional precipitation to the area early
next week. Warmer temperatures will cause some of this
precipitation to fall as rain in lower lying areas, but snow is
still expected to be the dominant precipitation type.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At the start of the extended forecast period, late Sunday, a low
that moved east through the Bering Sea towards Bristol Bay.
There is some uncertainty with the exact position of the low as
it approaches the West Coast. Most models are favoring a more
southerly solution with the low center near Bristol Bay, but a
few, notably the GFS, a slightly more northerly solution that
would bring the low center nearer the YK Delta Coast. The main
impacts from the low in either position are expected to be gusty
east to northeasterly winds along the West Coast and Western
Interior and a front that pushes snow and rain north across the
region. This low allows broad troughing to return to the region
pushing out the higher pressure that briefly developed over the
weekend. Temperatures remain relatively warmer despite the loss
of high pressure due to the warmer, more moist, air that the low
pulled with it from the south.

Later into the period, near the end of the forecast period
Wednesday into Thursday, yet another low moves towards the
Western Aleutians/Bering Sea. There is even less confidence in
this low`s strength and position and thus impacts cannot yet be
ascertained.

Coastal Hazard Potential...
A low approaches the Eastern Bering Sea Sunday. It`s position is
far enough south that high water impacts to Northern Alaska will
be limited. There are no significant concerns at this time, but
water levels may slightly rise about 1 to 2 feet above normal
in the Yukon Delta on Sunday. Another low is expected in or near
the Bering Sea next Wednesday into Thursday, but there is
currently too much uncertainty in its strength and position to
note any potential impacts.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns for the foreseeable future.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for
     AKZ849-850.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ815.
&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Stokes
SYNOPSIS.......Stokes
SHORT TERM.....Stokes
LONG TERM......Stokes
COASTAL........Stokes
HYDROLOGY......Stokes