731
FXAK69 PAFG 182230
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
230 PM AKDT Fri Jul 18 2025


.SYNOPSIS...A storm system will spread moisture in a southwest
flow aloft over the Interior for the next week. The western
Interior and west coast will receive occasional rain during this
time. The remainder of the Interior and Brooks Range will receive
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms...until more
widespread rain moves up around next Wednesday and Thursday. Highs
will be in the 70s this weekend. The Arctic Coast remains colder
with gusty east winds and areas of fog Saturday...but warms into
the 50s again by Sunday.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- High temperatures mainly in the 70s with light winds through the
  weekend. Skies will be partly cloudy.

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over the
  higher terrain this weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Occasional rain Saturday night and Sunday mainly west of a Huslia-
  McGrath line. Scattered showers elsewhere.

- Winds mainly offshore and 15 mph or less along the coast through
  Sunday. Gusty south-southwest winds on Monday.

- Temperatures remain steady for Saturday...60s near the west
  coast...70s in the Interior. Temperatures cool Sunday and
  Monday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- East winds 20 to 35 mph along the Arctic coast Saturday...
  decreasing to 10 to 20 mph Sunday.

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over the
  Brooks Range this weekend.

- Gradual warming Sunday into Tuesday. Highs in the 50s and low
  60s along the coast...with 70s possible in the Arctic Plain.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Shortwave energy in a
moist southwest flow aloft will trigger scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms over the higher terrain of Interior the
next several days. Lightning activity is expected to be minimal
this evening but more than yesterday. Isolated thunderstorm
formation is favored over the Fortymile country and eastern
Alaskan Range. Storms will spread up into the Brooks Range this
weekend. More widespread light rain will occur roughly west of
Huslia-McGrath line later tonight into Sunday. High temperatures
this weekend will be in the 70s except for 60s along the west
coast with the clouds and rain. The Arctic Coast remains colder
with gusty east winds and areas of fog Saturday... but warms into
the 50s again by Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures this weekend will remain slightly above normal, with
southwest flow on Saturday bringing stratiform rain over the West
Coast and Western Interior; chances for thunderstorms hang on
across parts of the Interior and even the North Slope. Southwest
flow looks to continue into next week, bringing more rainfall and
cooler temperatures into the Interior. RHs look to remain plenty
wet in these patterns, mainly above 40% with a few readings in the
30-40% range possible across the Upper Tanana Valley each day
through Sunday. Northeast winds will gust to 15 mph across the
Yukon Flats Friday afternoon through Sunday. Southerly gap winds
will gust to 30 mph through Alaska Range passes on Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...No concerns at this time. We will monitor potential
flash flooding from the day 3-7 hazardous rainfall projections by
WPC .


&&

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...There is good model agreement that a
low will move over the Bering Sea by Sunday...and then up near
the Bering Strait by next Tuesday. The high pressure ridge is
pushed east over the Canadian Yukon and breaks down. A series of
shortwaves will rotate around this low and move up over the
Interior in a moist west-southwest flow. Hazardous rainfall
remains possible on Tuesday over the Brooks Range...and along the
Denali Park Road and north side of the Alaska Range west of the
Parks Highway. Ensemble solutions want to move the Bering low
energy down over the Interior the middle of next week. The cold
frontal boundary forcing will result in widespread rainfall as it
tracks east. Hazardous rainfall will also be possible Wednesday
and Thursday over the eastern Alaska Range and Fortymile country.
This is a wet pattern that will likely settle down our wildfire
activity even more. Even the Yukon Flats could see some widespread
rain late next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-850-851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-815-858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ814.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860-861.

&&

$$

Maier/Park (FWX)