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FXAK69 PAFG 251436
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
636 AM AKDT Sun Oct 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Rain/snow showers continue to build into the Interior from
  west to east through the morning, with slight chances for
  pockets of freezing rain Sunday afternoon at lower elevations.

- Precipitation amounts will remain fairly light for most areas
  around a T-0.25" through Sunday night, with locally higher
  amounts up to 0.50" in the Alaska Range. Rain will transition
  into snow overnight and at higher elevations with T-2"
  expected across most of the Interior except for the Koyukuk
  Valley and Alaska Range seeing around 3-7".

- Another round of rain/snow showers moves into the Interior
  Sunday night into Monday morning, coupled with some breezy
  winds gusting upwards of 25 mph out of the southwest. The
  majority of this precipitation will likely fall as rain, with
  accumulating snow likely above 2000 feet.

- Precipitation amounts through Monday night across the
  Central Interior will generally range from 0.10-0.30" with
  amounts nearing 0.50" farther west. Snowfall totals will
  follow a similar trend with a T-2" at the valley floor and
  between 3-7" at higher elevations.

- Temperatures continue to warm through early next week, with
  highs generally in the mid/upper 30s and overnight lows in
  the mid/upper 20s.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Rain/snow showers continue across the West Coast through
  Sunday ahead of another low moving into the Bering Sea Sunday
  night into Monday. This new system will bring an additional
  round of rain/snow showers and elevated water levels to the
  West Coast where High Surf Advisories are in effect through
  early Tuesday morning.

- Following this system is yet another Bering Sea low, set to
  bring even more rain/snow showers, gusty winds, and minor
  coastal flooding to much of the West Coast Monday into
  Tuesday. High Wind Watches are in effect from Monday afternoon
  through Tuesday afternoon, as well as Coastal Flood Watches
  in effect from late Monday night through late Tuesday night
  north of the Bering Strait.

- Looking towards mid to late next week, we are monitoring where
  and when remnants of Typhoon Champi move into the Bering Sea.
  As of right now, models are hinting at impacts reaching the
  West Coast sometime Thursday into Friday, but stay tuned for
  more details.

- High temperatures will hold steady in the upper 30s/low 40s
  with overnight lows in the mid 30s.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Widespread snowfall persists through the weekend, mainly
  from Point Hope south and across the Western/Central Brooks
  Range. Snowfall amounts through the weekend will range from
  5-10" along the Dalton Highway south of Toolik Lake, with
  locally higher amounts near 12" near Coldfoot. Lighter
  snowfall accumulations are expected along the coast.

- Gusty southerly winds around 30 to 40 mph, particularly
  over Atigun and Anaktuvuk Passes, could lead to periods of
  blowing snow at times, with localized blizzard conditions
  possible through Sunday night.

- Two successive Bering Sea lows lift north through
  Tuesday, bringing additional snow, gusty winds, and elevated
  water levels to parts of the Chukchi Sea coast and Western
  Brooks Range. High Wind Watches, High Surf Advisories, and
  Coastal Flood Watches remain in effect through Tuesday.

- Temperatures gradually rise through mid next week with highs
  in the low/mid 30s and overnight lows in the upper 20s/low
  30s.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather continues across Northern Alaska as we head into next
week due to successive lows moving into the Bering Sea. The first of
these lows is continuing to support rain/snow showers across the
Interior and West Coast today, with accumulating snow above 1500-
2000 feet. A second low follows quickly behind it and moves into the
Bering Sea Sunday night into Monday, bringing another round of
rain/snow and high water levels to the West Coast. By Monday, a
third system moves in, keeping conditions similar across the West
Coast with the exception of additonal rain/snow showers and gusty
winds in the Interior Monday and Tuesday. Finally by midweek, as a
strong organized front pushes through the state, models begin to
hint at a fourth system moving into the Bering Sea Thursday into
Friday potentially related to remnants of Typhoon Champi, but more
details on that to come soon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Scattered rain/snow showers continue this morning across Northern
Alaska as a decaying low moves north through the Chukchi Sea. These
showers will continue to move east and impact portions of the West
Coast and Interior through Sunday, with pockets of freezing rain
possible in the valleys of the Central Interior during the
afternoon. Despite this however, the predominate precipitation type
within the Interior will be rain, with snow expected above 1500 to
2000 feet. Along the West Coast, a similar trend will follow with
rain expected at the surface and snow at higher elevations. Areas
which experience strong upslope flow due to southwesterly flow aloft
will see snowfall accumulations of several inches, especially within
the Western Brooks Range, Alaska Range, and Koyukuk Valley. Periods
of blowing snow may develop where gusty winds coincide.

By Sunday night, a second Bering Sea low follows closely behind the
heels of its predecessor and tracks northeast towards Norton Sound.
As this system moves inland, another round of rain/snow is expected
along the West Coast in addition to elevated water levels. These
higher water levels prompted the issuance of High Surf Advisories
along the coast from Hooper Bay north towards Point Lay. Minor
flooding is possible as well as localized beach erosion through
Monday. Elsewhere, as this system pushes farther east, an additional
wave of rain/snow showers moves into the Interior. Because this
second system brings quite a bit of warm air and moisture with it,
temperatures climb into the upper 30s/low 40s on Monday, keeping
rain the predominate precipitation type below 2000 feet.
Accumulations will be a tad higher than with the preceding storm,
but overall remain fairly light around 0.30" in the valleys and 3-7"
of snow at higher elevations through Monday night. Across the
Western/Central Brooks Range, upslope flow will support snowfall
accumulations of 5-10", with locally higher amounts near 12"
possible. Due to gusty southerly winds, periods of blowing snow may
develop at times through Monday, with localized blizzard conditions
possible.

Looking towards Tuesday, a third Bering Sea low tracks north into
the Gulf of Anadyr simultaneously as high pressure reestablishes
itself in the Gulf of Alaska. This helps to reinforce southwesterly
flow over the state and allows for yet another round of rain/snow,
gusty winds, and coastal flooding to impact Western Alaska. With
this, Coastal Flood Watches and High Wind Watches were issued along
the Chukchi Sea coasts through late Tuesday night. Because this
low`s track stays farther offshore than the previous two systems,
impacts from this storm remain confined to the West Coast and
Western Brooks Range, giving the Interior and eastern half of the
North Slope a brief break from active weather. By Tuesday night,
this low will have moved into the Chukchi Sea and drape a well
organized front across the state. This front will move northeast
across the state Wednesday through Thursday, briefly cooling
temperatures down a bit ahead of a fourth system that looks to move
into the Bering Sea Thursday into Friday. More on this system in the
"Long Term Discussion".

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At the start of the extended forecast period, Wednesday, the third
storm in our series of storms will have cross eastern Siberia into
the Arctic Ocean west of the date line. An atmospheric river
connected to that low that was pulling a large amount of moisture
into Western Alaska separates from the low, allowing what remains of
that moisture to shift inland. Additional rain and snow is expected
across the Interior Wednesday into Thursday. Higher pressure over
Canada and the Eastern Interior is weakened somewhat by this push of
moisture. The fourth storm in our forecast enters the southwestern
Bering Sea Wednesday and pushes east towards the West Coast through
Thursday. This fourth storm is expected to contain remnants of
Typhoon Champi and thus is expected to be fairly strong, around 960-
970 millibars in strength as it approaches the West Coast, and very
wet.

The exact position of the storm as it makes landfall is still
uncertain. The majority of model ensemble members suggest that the
storm will take a path east into Western Alaska, making landfall
near the YK Delta. Most of the 00Z run GEFS and Canadian ensemble
members support a more southerly track landing near Nunivak Island.
The 00Z run European ensemble is far less confident than the GFS and
Canadian models with members stretching across much of the Eastern
Bering Sea with members as far south as Bristol Bay and as far north
as the Seward Peninsula. The location of this storm center as it
approaches the West Coast will have very large impacts on the
coastal waters forecast and coastal flooding potential. More
southerly tracks will cause most of the strongest winds along the
Norton Sound, Chukchi Sea, and Bering Strait Coasts to be more
easterly, significantly limiting flooding potential for areas along
the coast from Hooper Bay north. More northerly tracks could bring
coastal flooding and erosion impacts back to the West Coast.

Regardless of track, an immense amount of moisture is expected with
this system. Most of the West Coast and Western Interior will see
another round of heavy precipitation, mostly rain in the valleys
with snow possible at higher elevations. Most models have this
precipitation pushing well into the Central Interior and even into
portions of the Eastern Interior Friday into Saturday. Gusty
easterly winds are expected as the storm pushes against higher
pressure to the east. The amount of moisture will help keep
temperatures above normal moving into the weekend.

.Coastal Hazard Potential...
A series of storm systems continues to move through the Bering Sea
and impact the West Coast. Storm impacts are expected to continue in
some form through the end of the week. There are four main storms to
keep track of. The first is, as of early Sunday morning, in the
Chukchi Sea and continues to exit the region to the north. It
previously brought increased water levels to most of the West Coast.
Water levels began declining from their peak Saturday. Coastal Flood
Advisories remain in effect for this first system for the Southern
Seward Peninsula and Bering Strait Coast. High Surf advisories
remain in effect for most of the rest of the West Coast.

The second follows the first Sunday afternoon through Monday. It`s a
weaker system than the first and follows a slightly more easterly
path. This storm is expected to keep water levels slightly elevated
across the West Coast with widespread high surf conditions expected.
A major component of the impacts from this storm is that it follows
the first closely enough that water levels will not fully receed.
Multiple high tide cycles with high surf conditions could lead to
extensive coastal erosion.

The third storm is quite a bit strong, but tracks much farther west
of the first two storms. It moves through the Western Bering Sea
Monday into Tuesday almost directly north from the Western Aleutians
into Eastern Siberia. An atmospheric river attached to this storm
system spins east of it over the West Coast, but the primary coastal
impacts will be a slight increase in water levels over the previous
high surf water levels. This increase in water levels could cause
additional coastal flood impacts, although high surf is still
expected to be the majority impact for most of the coast. Coastal
flood watches are in effect for this storm.

The forth storm is potentially the most impactful. The low pressure
system in question is expected to enter the southwestern Bering Sea
Wednesday and push towards the West Coast through Thursday. This
storm system is expected to contain remnants of Typhoon Champi which
will keep it fairly strong (in the 960-970 millibar range) and very
wet. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact track of
this storm system which was detailed in the long term forecast
section. Coastal impacts will largely depend on its exact track as
it makes landfall into Western Alaska. We will continue to monitor
this storm closely and update the forecast as the storm track
becomes more certain.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As a series of strong storms in the Bering Sea continue to support
rain/snow into next week, we will be closely tracking any
atmospheric river moisture as it builds into Northern Alaska. The
track and timing of the heaviest rain/snow will continue to be
monitored over the coming days, with heaviest totals expected across
higher elevations of the West Coast and in the Western/Central
Brooks Range. At this time, do not see any noteworthy ARIs, and am
not anticipating any rain or snowmelt related flooding, but we will
continue to monitor should the situation change.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ801-815-817-
     818-824-825.
     High Wind Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday evening
     for AKZ801.
     Coastal Flood Watch from late Monday night through late
     Tuesday night for AKZ801-815-817-818-820.
     High Surf Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ802-803.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ809.
     Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ812-831.
     Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ813-
     814-819.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for
     AKZ820-821.
     High Surf Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT
     Tuesday for AKZ820-821.
     High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday
     afternoon for AKZ820-821-827.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for
     AKZ822.
     High Surf Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM AKDT
     Tuesday for AKZ822.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM AKDT
     Tuesday for AKZ832-834-835-838.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ833.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM AKDT
     Monday for AKZ837-839>844.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ845.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ846.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ801-
     856.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT
     Monday for PKZ801-807.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ801-
     816.
     Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM AKDT Monday for
     PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ802>805-850-
     852-853.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ802.
     Gale Warning from 1 AM to 4 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ802-850.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ806-809-854-
     858.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ808-
     855.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT
     Monday for PKZ808.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ811-
     857.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM AKDT this evening for
     PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ816-
     817-851.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM AKDT
     Monday for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT
     this evening for PKZ817.
     Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT this
     evening for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT
     Monday for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM AKDT
     Monday for PKZ855.
&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Santiago
SYNOPSIS.......Santiago
SHORT TERM.....Santiago
LONG TERM......Stokes
COASTAL........Stokes
HYDROLOGY......MacKay