940
FXAK69 PAFG 132342
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
342 PM AKDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Warm weather and chances of thunderstorms are the big
weather stories as we approach and then head through the weekend.
A building ridge over the interior has brought with it building
temperatures across much of the state, with the warmest weather
expected over the weekend. A strong shortwave moving over the
ridge will bring with it periods of showers and some
thunderstorms. Between these showers and thunderstorms, drier
weather will prevail, with minimum relative humidities dropping
down as low as 25-35 percent over the eastern interior by late in
the weekend. A cooldown and a return of more widespread rain are
expected beginning early next week as a low in the Aleutian
Islands steers northward and into the Kuskokwim Delta.


&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- A warm and largely dry pattern persists into the weekend, with
  high temperatures reaching into the 70s and mid 80s. As clouds
  and chances of scattered showers increase north of Fairbanks on
  Friday, temperatures will cool by a few degrees.

- A weak upper-level disturbance moving through on Friday will
  bring chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly from
  Fairbanks northward and across higher terrain. Any rainfall
  will be light, with drier weather returning Saturday as high
  pressure builds over the region.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Warm conditions will continue through the weekends. Daytime
  highs will reach the 60s to near 70 along the coast, while
  inland areas warm into the mid to upper 70s. The warmest
  temperatures will be on Saturday.

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms will taper off after Thursday,
  leading to a warmer and drier trend Friday through the weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Warm weather will continue across the Western and Central North
  Slope and Brooks Range, with highs reaching the 60s and 70s.
  Highs will approach 80 across the Arctic Plains near Umiat.
  Temperatures will remain cooler from Deadhorse east along the
  Arctic Coast, with highs in the 40s and 50s.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated along the
  Western Brooks Range and North Slope through Thursday before
  shifting into the Eastern North Slope on Friday.

- Thursday morning, onshore flow will usher in fog along the
  Arctic Coast.


&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...

Warm summertime conditions-with some chances for showers and
thunderstorms, look set to be the big story for the weekend, while
early next week will feature a sharp change in the pattern, as a
low moves into SW AK and brings cooler temperatures and more
widespread areas of rain back northern Alaska.

Aloft, a strengthening ridge over the interior is responsible for
the rising temperatures across much of the region. The 576
decameter ridge will contribute to 850 mb temperature anomalies
reaching 5-8 C above normal. Closer to the surface, expect this to
lead to temperatures warming into the mid to upper 70s for much of
the area, and even into the lower 80s for areas further in the
central and eastern interior. The warmest temperatures are
expected Saturday into Sunday. Two separate organized shortwaves
moving up and over the ridge axis will be the main flies in the
ointment through the weekend, bringing chances of thunderstorms to
the central and eastern interior and North Slops on Friday, and
then in a band ranging from the Alaska Range west across SW AK
(south of the Seward Peninsula) on Saturday as another shortwave
begins sweeping up from the South, ahead of a broad area of low
pressure which looks set to move into SW AK (the Kuskokwim Delta
Area), by late Sunday into Monday. Ensemble guidance has not yet
finalized on an exact track for this low low, but confidence is
good in a return to more widespread rain for much of the area,
Potential rainfall totals from Monday into Tuesday reaching
anywhere from 0.5 to 1.5 inches for valleys and areas near sea
level along the Western Interior, with 2-3 inches possible for
areas at elevation. Tentatively expect amounts to trend towards
the higher ends of these totals given the inclusion of some
moisture from the subtropics with this system, though actual
system isobaric strength will be limited by a lack of any deep
cold air advection along its NW flank. For additional information,
see the long term discussion.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warming temperatures through the weekend, along with drier weather
across much of the area will bring temperatures until the mid to
upper 70s across the western Interior, and into the low 80s for
the central and eastern Interior. The warmest temperatures are
expected through the weekend. Relative humidities will reach as
low as 25-35 percent across the eastern interior on Sunday,
although winds will generally be on the light side during this
time frame for that portion of Northern Alaska. Isolated chances
of thunderstorms are expected for the central and eastern interior
on Friday, and for the Alaska range and immediately north of it on
westward, including the Kuskokwim Delta Area, for Saturday. By
late Sunday into Monday, a low moving up from the Aleutians will
bring with it widespread wetting rain and cooler temperatures,
especially between the western coast and central interior.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River levels remain normal. No hydrology concerns are expected.


&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... At the
start of the extended, a high pressure ridge will still be the
dominant feature over northern Alaska. However, troughing in the
north Pacific will join with a low in the Bering, dragging the
center of low pressure east toward Bristol Bay on Sunday. As this
happens, the gradient between the low and the ridge becomes
situated over the Alaska Range, supporting southerly gap winds
through Isabel and Windy Pass. It will also pull a moderate amount
of tropical moisture into western Alaska. Run-to- run, models
have been trending upward with respect to the strength of the
winds and amount of rain associated with this low. Probabilities
of getting an inch of rain have gone from ~25% in the lower Yukon
to more than 50% with the latest NBM guidance. Similarly, the
probability of wind gusts greater than 45 mph in the Alaska Range
passes has jumped from 30 to 50% to between 75 and 100%. The
timing of strongest winds in the AK Range and heaviest rain in the
southwest are both Sunday evening/Monday morning at this time.
Sunday, while the low is bringing cooler and wetter weather to the
southwest, the ridge will still have considerable influence over
the Interior and North Slope regions continuing the trend of warm
and dry weather. That ridge`s influence should gradually wane
through the start of next week as the low carves into it, leading
to gradually cooler temperatures through the rest of the forecast
period. Southerly winds and wetter weather in Western Alaska will
diminish beyond Monday, but not cease, as the low meanders over
Alaska through Wednesday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Heat Advisory for AKZ806-808.
PK...None.
&&

$$