581
FXAK69 PAFG 142318
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
318 PM AKDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm conditions continue into early next week. High temperatures
increase snowmelt along the North Slope raising water levels in
rivers. Showers and thunderstorm activity increase in the
Southern and Western Interior Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Warming trend continues with temperatures reaching the mid 80s
  this weekend and continuing into early next week.
- See heat advisory for additional details.

- Isolated thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon along the
  AlCan Border, then become more widespread Sunday through Tuesday.
- Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected in the Tanana
   Valley and Fortymile Country Monday and Tuesday afternoons.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Showery conditions continue for the West Coast through Saturday
  night. Showers and widely scattered thunderstorms return to the
  Western Interior Sunday afternoon. Showers with scattered
  thunderstorms expected Monday and Tuesday.

- 70s are likely in the Western Interior over the weekend,
  reaching the low 80s by Monday afternoon.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Temperatures begin to reach the 60s and 70s this weekend in the
  Arctic Plain, with 50s and low 60s along the coast.
- The North Slope and Anaktuvuk Pass could see high temperatures
   reach 77F Sunday afternoon/evening.

- Isolated afternoon thunderstorms along the southern slopes of
  the Western Brooks Range possible Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A 567 dam upper level high sits over the Alaskan Interior. A 529
dam upper level low sits in the Bering Sea southwest of St.
Lawrence Island and a 542 dam upper level low in the southeastern
Gulf of Alaska. The high slowly moves north and strengthens
through the weekend becoming a 572 dam high over the Eastern
Brooks Range by Sunday night. Temperatures across the region
continue to rise under the high. As the high moves further north
thunderstorm and shower development begins in the Southern and
Western Interior and increases as the lows in the Bering and Gulf
continue to chip away at the southern portions of the high.
Thunderstorms are most likely in the Western Interior Monday and
Tuesday afternoons. Warm temperatures continue well into next
week and will persist so long as the high remains strong over the
region. The high is likely to last through the end of next week
weakening slightly Thursday through next Saturday and possibly
being pushed east next Sunday, but confidence in this solution is
low.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and very dry conditions continue in the Interior into next
week. Winds remain generally light through the week, but reach up
to 15 mph Monday afternoon in the Yukon Flats and nearby elevated
terrain. This has necessitated a red flag warning for that region
on Monday. Thunderstorm activity increases in the Southern
Interior and Western Interior Sunday with widely scattered
thunderstorms in the Western Interior and further increases Monday
and Tuesday with scattered thunderstorms over the western Interior
and widely scattered thunderstorms expected in the Southern
Interior. With the warm and dry conditions at the surface fuels
will continue to dry out with possible critical fire weather
concerns Tuesday in the Southwestern Interior due to increased
thunderstorm activity. A fire weather watch has been issued for
this concern.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flooding is likely across portions of the North Slope due to an
unusually deep and persistent late-season snowpack combined with a
sharp and prolonged warming trend through next week. A rapid
onset of snowmelt has begun as temperatures have warmed into the
50`s and 60`s over the past couple of days across the North Slope
and are expected to remain well above normal through the middle
of next week. River levels have begun to rise and will likely
crest early next week. Ice has begun to breakup on the upper part
of the Sag River on Thursday with DOT reporting water over a
portion of the Dalton Highway near MP 323. Reports also show that
the Colville River is beginning to breakup. A 2-mile long ice jam
was reported Friday evening along the Colville at Ocean Point with
no flooding or impacts.

Intact ice remains on many of the larger rivers, and the sudden
influx of snowmelt runoff could lead to ice jam formation. These
jams can cause sudden and severe rises in water levels, posing a
significant threat to roads or other infrastructure near the
affected waterways.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
High pressure continues to sit over the Eastern Brooks Range
facilitating warm temperatures for the region and increased
thunderstorm activity in the Southern and Western Interior each
afternoon. The high weakens slightly Thursday through Saturday as
lows in the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska chip away at it which
will lower temperatures slightly and allow showers and
thunderstorms to move further into the Interior. A possible
pattern change arrives next Sunday as a low attempts to push the
high east into Canada, but confidence in this solution is still
low.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Fire Weather Watch for AKZ929-930-952.
     Flood Watch for AKZ804>806-808>810.
     Red Flag Warning for AKZ932>934.
     Heat Advisory for AKZ833>835-838>846.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801>805-852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-807-853-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817-850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
&&

$$

Stokes