687
FXAK69 PAFG 041317
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
517 AM AKDT Thu Jun 4 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper-level, arctic trough continues to rotate over the North
Pole, swinging a series of shortwaves across the state from the
NW. This will continue to provide chances for snow across the
North Slope through the weekend. In addition, this will continue
to allow northwesterly flow to continue across the state which
will set up the potential for seasonably cooler temperatures as
more abundant shortwaves move south across the West Coast.
Meanwhile, another low will be moving east along the south side of
the Aleutians. This will bring the next slight chance for isolated
thunderstorms to the Upper Tanana on Saturday.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Warmer temperatures reaching the low to mid 70s over most of the
  Interior valleys through the end of the week.

- Scattered showers are possible for the Alaska Range, Eastern
  Interior, and Northern Interior through the weekend and early
  next week.

- Below normal temperatures this weekend, going into next week.
  Minimum temperatures may get as low as the mid to upper 30s.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Warmer temperatures with highs in the low to mid 70s through the
  end of the week.

- Strong west to northwest gusts Kotzebue Sound through Friday
  night with gusts up to 30 mph expected. Gusts are expected to
  relax overnight before picking up again during the day.

- Below to much below normal temperatures this weekend and going
  into next week. Minimum temperatures may get as low as the mid
  to upper 30s.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Below average conditions are expected to persist with
  temperatures mostly between 30 and 40 degrees through Friday.

- Isolated snow showers expected to continue across the North
  Slope through the start of the weekend. Accumulations
  around an inch with higher amounts at elevation in the Brooks
  Range.

- Gusty north/northwest winds, up to 30 mph, will remain in place
  over the Brooks Range through Friday night.

- Below to much below normal temperatures this weekend and going
  into next week. Minimum temperatures possibly dropping below 20
  degrees along the coast.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Fairly benign weather continues across most of the state. The
main driver for this forecast period is an Arctic low, currently
sitting over the North Pole, and high pressure out in the Bering.
This is setting up west/northwest flow across the majority of the
state, which will eventually lead to seasonably cooler
temperatures by the end of the weekend. Meanwhile, a series of
weak shortwaves embedded within the flow will move SE from the
Chukchi, over the Brooks Range, and into the NE portion of the
Interior. This will continue to provide chances for snow showers
across the Arctic Plains over the next several days. A slight up-
tick in the westerly winds is possible along the Arctic Coast
today as the first shortwave moves across the North Slope. As the
week comes to an end, a more prominent shortwave will move south
along the West Coast. This will help to broaden the troughing
across the state. In addition, the Arctic low will slowly shift
south, closer to the Arctic Coast. Another low will be moving
east, south of the Aleutians throughout the weekend. Some of the
energy from this low will work its way across the Upper Tanana on
Saturday bringing a slight chance for an isolated thunderstorm in
the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper-level ridging is expected to persist through the rest of the
week, leading to a decrease in shower and thunderstorm activity.
Light, isolated showers are possible, but chances of wetting rain
and thunderstorms remain unlikely. High temperatures are expected to
remain in the 60s and 70s everywhere except the North Slope where
areas will remain in the 20s and 30s. Minimum relative humidities
are expected to generally be in the 30% range, except the Tanana
Valley, Fortymile Country, and the Yukon Flats where 20% is
possible.

A pattern shift is expected towards the end of the week
and into the weekend as upper-level troughing builds into the state
from the north, leading to the increased possibility of isolated
showers and thunderstorms returning as shortwaves move into northern
Alaska. These showers will also lead to an increase in minimum
relative humidities and decreasing high temperatures this weekend
and into the beginning of next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

No changes from the previous hydro forecast discussion.

Sagavanirktok River: Some overflowing is occurring; however, breakup
along the Sag River has not begun yet. Temperatures continue as
below normal, around the low 30s for a high near the coast and
the mid to upper 30s for the northern Brooks Range. Going into the
weekend and into next week, much below normal to possibly record
breaking temperatures with lows possibly below 20 degrees and high
temperatures not exceeding freezing, except near the Brooks Range
where temperatures may reach the upper 30s.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
At the start of the extended forecast period Sunday a very large
upper level low over the high Arctic continues to push south towards
the North Slope. This low brings very cold air for the time of year
over much of Northern Alaska and puts a definitive end to the warmer
weather of the previous week. High temperatures fall into the upper
50s to low 60s across much of the Interior and fall below freezing
along the Arctic Coast. Interior valleys could see frosts with low
temperatures falling into the 30s. If skies are clear enough
temperature inversions will develop that may bring low temperatures
in the deepest valleys near freezing.

Otherwise daily afternoon showers and the occasional extremely
isolated afternoon thunderstorm are possible across the Interior
under this pattern. Heavier and more widespread precipitation is
most likely only when stronger shortwave features rotate around the
Arctic low into the region. When these pass through northwesterly
winds along the West Coast, particularly the Chukchi Sea Coast, and
westerly winds across the Arctic Coast are expected to increase.
Combined with the low temperatures unseasonably cold wind chills are
possible across the Arctic Coast early next week. The timing of
these stronger shortwave features is still subject to change, but
the current forecast is predicting one passing through the region
Sunday afternoon through Monday which is expected to bring those
more widespread showers and stronger winds.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-806-853-854-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$

Twombly
Lewis - Fire Wx
Stokes - Extended