745
FXAK69 PAFG 170002
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
402 PM AKDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A ridge of high pressure has built across the area
this afternoon with quiet and seasonable weather conditions for
most areas. The nice weather will continue into the weekend with
highs getting into the 70s across the Interior and into the 60s
for other areas except the Arctic Coast. Onshore flow and low
stratus and fog return to the North Slope on Thursday. Next week
looks wet and cool for most of the northern half of the state,
especially Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Southerly gap winds gusting to 30 mph through Alaska Range
  Passes through Thursday morning.

- High temperatures mainly in the 70s through the weekend. 80 is
  possible but not likely across the Yukon Flats on Sunday. Skies
  will be partly cloudy.

- Thunderstorm activity looks to be near zero until Friday, when
  isolated thunderstorms are likely across the Central and Eastern
  Interior, and again on Saturday.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Most areas west of Tanana will saw 0.3-1.4" of total rainfall
  through this morning with the heaviest amounts near Nome and
  from Koyukuk to Huslia to the Innoko Flats.

- Winds mainly offshore and 10 mph or less along the coast through
  the weekend.

- High Surf Advisories have been cancelled

- Temperatures remain fairly steady, mostly in the 60s with a few
  70s in the Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Onshore flow and low stratus/fog return Thursday.

- East winds 20 to 25 mph along the Arctic Coast on Friday.

- Gradual cooling through Friday before warming back to well above
  normal temperatures over the weekend. Highs in the 70s over the
  Arctic Plain possible Saturday through early next week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...A ridge of high pressure has
built across the area this afternoon with quiet and seasonable
weather conditions for most areas. An upper low has moved into
southwest Alaska and will continue to move northwest to the Lower
Yukon by Thursday. This low will bring southeast flow to areas to
the east, which will bring isolated showers and clouds. However,
the weak ridge of high pressure will persist, bringing periods of
sunshine through early next week. Models are in above average
agreement on the overall pattern and on the placement of
precipitation over the next 3 days. We used a general blend of
models for the forecast today and made few changes to the
inherited forecast as it appears to be on track.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Looking at the large scale patterns, a ridge is evident
across the majority of the state, with a closed low lifting into
Kodiak Island and a broad low across the Bering Sea. Satellite shows
quite a bit of cloud cover across the interior and into the west
coast, with surface observations reporting excellent RH. As we move
through the end of the week the ridge will continue to shift east
while the aforementioned low lifts into the YK Delta. This feature
will drive widespread wetting rains south of Galena; furthermore,
the Bering Sea low continuing to bring moist southwest flow to the
western coast. Most focus for warm/dry continues to be the Yukon
Flats, where temperatures will head back up into the 70s.
However, minimum RH will likely remain above 35 percent, with
excellent RH recoveries anticipated over the morning hours.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...No concerns at this time.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Models have sped up the arrival of
southwest flow to the south of an upper low tracking toward the
Bering Strait early next week. Models don`t generally speed up the
breakdown of the ridge, so have some uncertainty on the recent
model trend. Nonetheless, the arrival of heavy rains to the
western Interior and West Coast look likely by Tuesday, with
potentially hazardous rainfall on Tuesday along the Denali Park
Road and north side of the Alaska Range west of the Parks Highway.
The rest of the area looks to see temperatures near or slightly
below normal next week with occasional rain.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
&&

$$

Chriest/Park (Fire)