336
FXAK69 PAFG 061346
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
546 AM AKDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Conditions will trend predominantly dry through Sunday, with
  rain lifting northward once more through the latter half of
  Monday.

- Patchy Fog is likely Sunday morning.

- Temperatures will trend warmer into Monday for most areas, with
  highs in the 50s/60s and lows in the 30s/40s. Temperatures
  cool somewhat Tuesday onwards, but remain above freezing
  overnight

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A series of lows entering Southwest Alaska and lifting north will
  bring steadier rain chances to the Yukon Delta and Norton
  Sound region on Sunday, before lifting northeast Monday into
  Tuesday to encompassing all of Western Alaska.

- Southwest winds will pick up on Wednesday ahead of a strong
  low and atmospheric river moving into Western Alaska late
  Wednesday into Thursday. This system will bring widespread
  rain, gusty winds, and onshore flow, with the potential for
  high surf and minor coastal flooding. Stay tuned for
  additional updates.

- Temperatures will hold steady through midweek, with highs in
  the 40s/50s to low 60s with lows in the 30s/40s.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Widespread low stratus and areas of fog persist.

- Conditions will trend drier for Sunday into early Monday outside
  of very isolated showers, with another front lifting north
  throughout the day Monday into the Brooks Range with rain
  showers, especially for the NW Arctic Coast.

- Temperatures will hold steady or see a warming trend through
  midweek with highs in the 40s/50s and lows in the 30s/40s,
  colder across higher elevations of the Brooks Range.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
The Pacific storm track continues to remain fixed squarely over
Northern Alaska, bringing system after system to our doorstep
through the upcoming week. The widespread rainfall from the
most recent system has finally come to an end as the
atmospheric river responsible has finally left the area,
leaving lingering low clouds and pockets of fog in its wake. The
active weather pattern looks set to continue however, as
additional systems move up from the SW and into the Interior.
The next low will move N out of the Alaska Peninsula and over
the Seward Peninsula through Monday, keeping chances of rain in
the forecast for the western interior and coast through early
next week. Hot on its heels a new system moves in from the SW,
bringing a surge of rain and breezy conditions which will spread
across the area Tuesday. Another shortwave moves in rapidly
behind it, keeping chances of rain in the forecast on Wednesday.
Ridging briefly starts to rebuild across the Gulf of AK and the
Eastern and central Interior Thursday, before crumbling in the
face of a fairly strong Bering Sea low and its corresponding
fronts Friday into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...A brief lull in the rain has
settled across much of the Interior, as the remnants of an
atmospheric river move off into the Arctic Ocean. In the system`s
wake, saturated ground has provided a foundation for patchy fog
which has developed through the early morning hours across parts of
the central and eastern interior.

The pause in the rainfall will not last long however with
satellite and radar showing the next low already knocking at our
door. This low will encounter significant difficulties
remaining cohesive as it moves north, as partial phasing with a
weak warm front originating in the western Bering Sea will
result in the system functionally splitting in two. The mid-
level circulation and the best dynamic support will move E into
the Gulf of AK, while a portion of the low level circulation
will move due North through Monday, ultimately reaching the
Seward Peninsula and bringing chances of rain for Sunday and
Monday across the West Coast and Western Interior. While some
chances of rain cannot be ruled out for the Tanana Valley,
southerly flow over the Alaska Range will encourage downsloping,
keeping precip chances for FSNB on the lower side. The
southerly flow will support moderate Chinook winds in the
vicinity of Isabel Pass, with gusts of 40-45 mph anticipated in
parts of the eastern AK Range on Tuesday.

By early Tuesday, this low will have been supplanted by a stronger
system moving out of the SW and making landfall over the Kuskokwim
Delta. Deterministic guidance is in good agreement on this system
being fairly weak (around 995 to 1000 mb), but with fairly abundant
moisture support and a prevailing SW flow pattern, rainfall will
spread across the area reaching from the central and eastern
interior through the NW Arctic Coast.

Immediately in the wake of this system, a weak ridge will begin
building across south/central on Wednesday, steering a shortwave
over its axis and directly over northern Alaska, bringing still more
chances of rain. The silver lining with all of these systems being
the continued injections of warmer subtropical air keeping snow
levels above 4k ft for most places, and cooler autumn conditions
held at bay - at least for now.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weather conditions continue to remain inclement, with
confidence growing that a respectable strength storm system on
Thursday and Friday could bring with it high surf and the
potential for some minor cold flooding.

In the wake of a shortwave which moved through on Wednesday, a ridge
builds over the Alaskan Interior, before moving east on Thursday. As
the ridge moves E through AK, a fairly strong 975-985 mb low is
expected to move over NE Siberia. The low itself looks to have
respectable dynamics, with moisture support from the subtropics
alongside a ~145kt jet streak along its eastern flank.

All of this will result in SW flow along the low`s flank racing
up across the Bering and into the West Coast. While the low`s
distance from the state will prevent any truly spectacular
sustained winds, do still think that there will be a period of
20-30kt winds along a considerable fetch of the Bering Sea from
late Wednesday through Friday. This will drive a surge of water
which will impact parts of the W Coast, particularly areas along
Norton Sound and potentially along the Kuskokwim Coast. At this
time, think that this could result in the potential for high
surf, or even minor coastal flooding for a few locations. We
will provide updates as confidence grows in the final storm
track and strength.

Otherwise, the system itself will bring a fast moving plume of
moisture across Northern AK. Some significant differences in precip
totals remain, with the Euro and its Ensemble showing significantly
less precip for the central interior owing to a stronger
anticipated ridge, while the GFS and its ensemble bring more
moisture into the central and eastern parts of our area as they
break down the ridge more quickly. Given the usual
overaggressiveness that deterministic models and ensembles have
when it comes to breaking down ridges, think that the EURO
likely has a better grasp on rainfall potential in this case.
Either way, periods of rain and breezy conditions will last
through the weekend, with the initial system being reinforced by
another shortwave moving up through the latter half of the
weekend.


Coastal Hazard Potential...

Confidence is growing in a respectable strength 975-985 mb system
which will move over NE Siberia Thursday and Friday. Strong SW
flow near the surface of 25-30kt sustained could bring elevated
chances of high surf, and potentially even minor coastal
flooding to parts of the West Coast. Currently anticipate that
the best chances for elevated surge levels will be around Norton
Sound and for the Kuskokwim Delta area, with heights of 3-5 ft
possible. Stay tuned for additional updates.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Most of northern Alaska continues to enjoy periods of wetting
rainfall through the foreseeable future, with temperatures reaching
the mid to upper 50s or lower 60s, and relative humidities remaining
fairly elevated. The one exception is the upper Tanana Valley
and forty mile country, where generally drier conditions have
prevailed, and will for the most part continue to prevail
barring some scattered showers. The best chances of more
appreciable wetting rain for this area would likely be late
Tuesday into Wednesday, when a wind shift from the W or NW could
allow some moisture from the central interior to move further
east. Minimum RH values of between 45-55% are expected through
Monday for the forty mile country area, before increasing to
60%+ Tuesday and Wednesday.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rivers and streams have risen in response to a recent atmospheric
river, but have remained below bankful. Rainfall totals through the
first half of the week will be low enough that flooding concerns are
not anticipated.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SPANN
KEY MESSAGES...SPANN
SHORT TERM.....SPANN
LONG TERM......SPANN
COASTAL........SPANN
FIRE WEATHER...SPANN
HYDROLOGY......SPANN