249
FXAK69 PAFG 022303
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
203 PM AKST Mon Mar 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Chilly conditions look to stick around most of northern ALaska for
the next several days. While temps will moderate slightly across
the central and eastern Interior the next few days, much colder
conditions will be setting in along the western North Slope and
parts of western Alaska. There is still the potential for some
clouds and even light snow to sneak into the central and eastern
Interior late week and into the early weekend. While this would
allow for a brief warm up, any snowfall should be on the lighter
side with minimal impacts. Stronger winds will develop by this
weekend along the west coast which could result in some blowing
snow and very cold wind chill values.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Much colder than normal overnight temperatures can be expected
  again for the next few nights. However readings should be a few
  degrees above the levels recorded the past several evenings.

- Daytime high temperatures should warm into the single digits
  below zero thanks to increasing sun angles and sufficient
  daytime heating over the next few days. For those above 1500ft,
  expect highs near zero and lows in the teens below zero.

- Clear and dry conditions should persist through most of the
  week, with our greatest chances for snow returning on Friday.
  Current model guidance suggests light snow accumulations with
  exact snowfall totals through the weekend uncertain this far
  out. We will continue to monitor conditions as we approach the
  weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Anomalous cold continues across the West Coast with lows in the
  -20s and -30s along the coast and the -30s and -40s across the
  Western Interior.

- Northerly winds through the Bering Strait are expected to
  remain somewhat strong with sustained winds between 20-25 mph,
  gusting to 40-45 mph at times through Tuesday. Minor blowing
  snow conditions may develop due to plenty of fresh snow on the
  ground across the Seward Peninsula.

- Another round of strong north winds through the Strait are
  expected later this week and into the weekend, reintroducing
  blowing snow concerns for coastal communities from Point Hope to
  the western Seward Peninsula and St Lawrence Island.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Despite breezy conditions continuing, the visibility continues
  to improve along the Eastern Arctic coastline. However a brief
  uptick and winds along with some additional light snowfall
  tonight and Tuesday may briefly bring back some blowing snow
  concerns.

- While temperatures across the central and eastern North Slope
  will remain fairly steady the next few days, noticeably colder
  conditions will be setting in across western parts of the North
  Slope.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A northerly flow pattern continues to bring much colder than
normal conditions to northern Alaska. The strong upper low that
was over the Canadian Archipelago the past few days has started
to weaken slightly and drift to the southeast. This is helping
drag the cold surface high that was near to Alcan boarder deeper
into the Yukon Territory which is allowing 850 temps to recover
slightly across the central and eastern Interior. Because of this
we do expect to see some modification to our extremely cold air
mass that is in place, but readings will still be unseasonably
cold for this time of the year.

Meanwhile the upper trough associated with this upper low will
continue to build westwards over the state, eventually developing
a weak closed circulation near the Y-K Delta coast by midweek.
There has been some model uncertainty as to how far west this
feature would build, but as of today global model consensus is
for the Siberian upper ridge to retrograde just enough to allow
for a somewhat more westward placement. The end result of this
will be to bring additional cold air westwards through the western
half of the state through Wednesday. Otherwise mainly dry and
calm conditions are expected. The exception will be along the
eastern Arctic coast where a fast moving shortwave is expected to
clip the region Tuesday. This will bring higher west winds and
even some additional light snow to the region. While impacts from
this system will be brief, there will be renewed concerns over
blowing snow and lower visibilities.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
As the upper circulation lingers near the Y-K Delta coast middle
of the week, the north Pacific ridge will try and build a bit
further north allowing for a southwest to northeast trajectory for
surface lows through the northern Gulf. While initially impacts
from these systems will stay well to our south, models are hinting
at a somewhat deeper low to track into south-central as additional
energy tracks north to join the main upper circulation by Friday
afternoon. This could bring additional moisture and slightly
warmer conditions to at least the eastern-most Interior, but
potentially the central Interior as well Friday into Saturday. If
this comes to pass, then high temps above zero and potentially in
the teens could briefly occur. Meanwhile snowfall is expected to
be on the lighter side, with exact amounts still undetermined at
this point.

Looking towards the west coast, the gradient through the Bering
Strait will be intensifying as the surface low pushes north and
east through the northern Gulf. There is the signal for stronger
northerly flow Thursday and Friday through the straight that
could bring blowing snow concerns to a large portion of the west
coast. This will be monitored closely going forward as impacts
could occur from Point Hope all the way down to near the Y-K
coastline.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ821.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804-814.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-816-817-850-854-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851-853.
&&

$$

Laney