655
FXAK69 PAFG 272306
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
306 PM AKDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- A cooling trend will set up across the Interior by the start
  of the week. By Monday, high are expected to be in the 30s
  and 40s with overnight lows in the mid 20s and low 30s.

- Next chance for precipitation returns early Monday morning,
  becoming more widespread by the afternoon. The Interior
  valleys will start off seeing rain, transitioning to a
  rain/snow mix overnight.

- Areas above 1200ft will see mostly snow, especially by Monday
  night and persist through the mid week. Total snow
  accumulations are expected to be between 1" and 2" with
  locally higher amounts possible at higher elevation.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Isolated showers continue across the West Coast through Monday
  morning. A SE moving front will bring more widespread
  rain/snow showers to the northern half of the Western Interior
  Monday night into Tuesday.

- Snow accumulations are expected to be between 0.5" and 1.5".
  Lower elevations may continue to see mostly rain, with a
  slight chance of wet snow as warmer temperatures may still be in
  place for some locations.

- Gusty north winds will continue to increase across the West
  Coast and Bering Sea through Monday afternoon, decreasing
  thereafter.

- High temperatures Sunday will continue to be in the mid 40s to
  low 50s. A widespread cooling trend is expected through the
  mid week with highs down to the mid to low 30s by Wednesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Snow showers along the NW Arctic Coast will shift east Sunday
  night into Monday. Snow accumulations across the Arctic
  Plains expected to be between 1" and 3" (heavier amounts along
  higher elevations) through Wednesday afternoon.

- Northerly winds increase along the Arctic Coast on Monday with
  a weak surface low strengthening off the NE Arctic Coast.

- High temperatures Sunday will continue to be in the mid 30s to
  low 40s. A widespread cooling trend is expected through the
  mid week with highs down to the mid to low 20s by Wednesday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated rain and snow showers are expected to continue into
the start of next week. A cold front will move SE from the
Chukchi on Monday. This will allow snow to continue across the
North Slope. Some areas across the Interior may see a
transition to snow Monday night into Tuesday. With this, higher
elevations will see the chance for first snowfall accumulations
of the season. Heavier snowfall amounts will be possible along
Isabel Pass Monday night through Wednesday night. Behind the
cold front, cooler temperatures will look to settle across
Northern Alaska which could last through most of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A quieter weather pattern continues over much of Northern Alaska
as broad upper-level tough settles in. Satellite imagery from
this morning showed a swath of clouds across the western half of
the state, while the eastern half remain clear. This is due to
weak riding that continues to move north along the Al-Can
border. Looking south, a Bering low will continue to weaken as
it progresses east across the Alaska Peninsula. Energy from this
system will continue to wrap around itself as it moves into the
northern Gulf late Sunday night into early Monday morning.

As the low shifts east, colder air brought down from the north
will allow the broad troughing to slightly deepen. This will
also promote a widespread cooling trend across much of Northern
Alaska. This can be seen within the 850mb temperatures as they
drop quite a bit Monday into Wednesday. A few embedded
shortwave features are expected to remain situated over the
Interior on Monday and provide some areas with their first
snowfall of the season. Lower elevations will start off seeing
mostly rain and transition to a rain/wet snow mix during the
overnight hours. Not much is expected in regards to
accumulations in these areas. The heaviest snow amounts can be
expected along the higher elevations along the White Mountains
and Dalton Hwy Summits. In addition, upslope flow will set up
along the eastern portion of the Alaska Range with the potential
for even heavier snowfall amounts. While the heavier amounts
are expected over the peaks, areas along the Richardson Highway
could see 3" to 5" through Wednesday night. The north/northwest
flow set up over the western half of the state will allow for
additional shortwaves to dig south across the Chukchi on
Tuesday. Widespread snowfall can be expected to set up across
the Arctic Plains ahead of this feature and continue through
much of the forecast period. Models are showing the potential
for this shortwave to phase with some of the lingering energy
across the Interior, forming another closed over the Seward
Peninsula by late Tuesday night.

Meanwhile, another shortwave system will move SE from the
western Bering on Tuesday and help promote the general
troughiness across the state. This will allow for the chillier
and showery conditions to continue into the latter half of the
week. In addition, a more pronounced trough extending south
from the Arctic will progress east from the Chukchi, reaching
the NW Arctic Coast by Wednesday morning. With this, another
round of snowfall to the north slope and even chillier
temperatures down the West Coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The extended begins Wednesday night with general troughing over
Alaska, and an arctic low settled north over our state.
Through Saturday, the arctic low will send a series of cold
fronts throughout Alaska. This will help reinforce cooler
temperatures to persist throughout much of northern Alaska
throughout the extended period. Specifically, the North Slope
will likely see temperatures range between the lower to upper
20s, while south of the Brooks Range, much of the Interior
should expect lows in the upper 20s, and highs in the lower 40s.
Along with cooler weather, there is possibilities for snow
accumulations throughout the week, with most lower lying areas
seeing 1 to 2 inches, and higher amounts associated with higher
terrains.

Looking further ahead, models are suggesting the potential for
a system to move towards the Bering Sea late this week. At this
time there is noticeable disagreement on this systems track,
which will be a key factor in determining the impacts that this
system may bring. As of today, the models suggest a more
northward trend of this storm. If this trend proves to be
accurate, this would imply the possibility for gusty winds,
precipitation, and coastal impacts for our area early next week.

&&

.COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
No coastal hazard concerns expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Not much expected regarding fire weather concerns. Drier
conditions are expected to continue through Sunday night as some
slight ridging remains overhead. Temperatures are expected to
be cooler as cold 850 temperatures are brought down from the
northwesterly flow set up aloft. This will limit the minimum RH
values, in comparison to Saturday, with values between 40 and 45
percent. Scattered showers return across the Upper Tanana on
monday. Most will be confined to the Fortymile Country with a
chance to convert to snow Monday night with the ongoing cooling
trend. Not much is expected in regards to accumulations. High
temperatures are expected to be in the 50s on Sunday, dropping
to the low to mid 40s by the start of the week. These cooler
temperatures will remain in place through the end of the week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro concerns expected.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ801-806-807-
     810-854-856.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ805-
     855.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT
     Monday for PKZ808.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ814.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT
     Monday for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT
     Monday for PKZ853.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ857.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 4 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ859.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ860.

&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Twombly
SYNOPSIS.......Twombly
SHORT TERM.....Twombly
LONG TERM......Donner
COASTAL........Twombly
FIRE WEATHER...Twombly
HYDROLOGY......Twombly