425
FXAK69 PAFG 302218
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
218 PM AKDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Trailing surface front associated with yesterday`s system will be
moving into Canada. Isolated rain showers over the White Mountains
and Fortymile will end this evening. There will continue to be
extensive low clouds, fog and some drizzle along the West Coast and
the Arctic Coast tonight. On Friday a weak shortwave will spread
some scattered light rain and gusty southwest winds over the
Lisburne Peninsula up through Utqiagvik. The scattered rain spreads
east across the North Slope and the Brooks Range on Saturday.
Otherwise A strong high pressure ridge will build over northern
Alaska into the weekend. Skies will become mostly clear with a
warming and drying trend. Hottest spots will be in the Central and
Eastern Interior. Along the Arctic Coast and the West Coast
temperatures will remain cooler. More widespread rain and cloud
cover is expected to spread into the West Coast and Western Interior
on Sunday.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
-Isolated rain showers will diminish across the the White Mountains
and Fortymile this evening.

-Warmer and drier weather into Sunday with highs peaking in the
mid 70s to near 80.

-The weather pattern shifts early next week as a southwest flow is
projected to spread more clouds and rain up into the Interior.

West Coast and Western Interior...
-Areas of low clouds, fog and drizzle will continue over the West
Coast into Saturday. More widespread rain is expected
throughout western Alaska Sunday into Monday.

-High temperatures will peak in the 70s in the Interior on Saturday
with 50s and 60s along the West Coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
-Low clouds and fog will continue along the Arctic Coast into
Friday.

-Scattered light rain and gusty southwesterly winds 20-30 mph
develop Friday across the Lisburne Peninsula up through Utqiagvik.
The scattered rain spreads east across the North Slope and the
Brooks Range on Saturday.

-Temperatures will peak in the 50s near the coast and 60s on the
Arctic Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
Weak surface front associated with yesterday`s short wave trough
will move into Canada. Isolated rain showers over the White
Mountains and Fortymile will diminish this evening as a high
pressure ridge builds over the Interior. Skies will become mostly
clear with a warming and drying trend. 850mb temps will increase
into the 10-15C range over the Central and Eastern Interior into
Sunday. This will allow for high temperatures to warm into the mid
70s to near 80. Meanwhile a longwave trough over the Bering Sea will
begin push shortwave energy into the high pressure ridge. Friday a
glancing blow occurs up over the Lisburne Peninsula up through
Utqiagvik resulting in scattered light rain and gusty southwesterly
winds 20-30 mph. A stronger Bering Sea short wave pushes into the
ridge Saturday into early Sunday. Scattered rain will spread east
across North Slope and Brooks Range, and increase over the West
Coast. On Sunday even stronger short wave energy is projected to
push the ridge axis east toward the Yukon Territory. A southwest
flow develops and begins to spread clouds and more widespread rain
into the West Coast and the Western Interior. This eastward
translation of the ridge is supported downstream by a low pressure
system forming over the Hudson Bay.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As the Arctic front leaves Alaska, drier weather will begin to
settle across the state. Weak ridging begins to build across the
West Coast and Western Interior before moving east across the rest
of the Interior Friday and Saturday. Today continues the warming
trend with highs in the 60s to near 70 across the Interior with min
RHs in the 30 to 40% range in the Central/Eastern Interior and 35 to
50% in the Western Interior. High temperatures in the 70s to near 80
are expected to travel with this ridge as it moves across the state,
leading to the Western Interior seeing its highest temperatures on
Friday, the Central Interior seeing its highest temperatures on
Saturday, and the Eastern Interior seeing its highest temperatures
on Sunday. Min RHs will likely drop down into the 25 to 35% range as
the ridge passes as well. Winds will be on the lower side across
most of northern AK through the first half of the weekend and the
ridge should suppress thunderstorm development.

As we get into the later weekend and next week, the ridge is pushed
east into Canada as a low moves in from the Bering, leading to
southwest flow for Alaska. This low is expected to potentially bring
quite a bit of precipitation due to moisture from the tropics it`s
bringing north. Precipitation totals still vary between models and
model runs, but do anticipate widespread wetting rains across much
of the Western Interior and Kuskokwim Delta Area, with more isolated
to scattered showers across the Central and Eastern interior. Models
are also hinting at the potential for gusty southerly winds through
the Alaska Range passes beginning as early as Monday morning,
leading to the Central and Eastern Interior being Chinooked for this
event.

&&

.HYDROLOGY... No concerns at this time, rivers are near normal
stages.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION...Monday through Thursday
Ensembles have come into agreement on forming a low pressure system
over the Bering Sea and moving it to the Yukon Delta region on
Monday. Water levels will continue to be monitored for the Yukon
Delta coast southward. Current projections show minor 1-2 feet of
surge above the highest tide line. The moist, southwest flow that is
established on Sunday continues on Monday. Widespread rain will
continue to spread from the West Coast farther inland - up into the
Brooks Range and across the Western and Central Interior. Much
cooler temperatures will occur in those areas. 24 hour greater than
or equal to a half inch (0.5") QPF probabilities ending 12Z Tuesday
continues to zero in on the Kuskokwim valley and western Alaska
Range up into the Koyukok river valley. We coordinated accordingly
with WFO AFC and WPC on heavy rain hazards in the 3 to 7 day
national outlook.

There is still much uncertainty in the 12Z deterministic mid-range
model runs (including the AI versions) on where this low tracks
next. Both the GFS and Canadian are keeping the low up over the
Norton Sound region resulting in the southwest firehose of moisture
continuing Tuesday and Wednesday. The ECMWF drops the low south near
the Kuskokwim Delta region. That would keep moisture more over the
Western Interior with a southerly Chinook developing over the Alaska
Range. It is possible for gap winds to gust to 70 mph through Windy
and Isabel pass by late Monday so we will continue to monitor for
that threat.

Beyond that the trend seems to be for the low to drop down
over Bristol Bay and head south into the Gulf of Alaska on
Thursday. This appears to be in response to the next upstream
arctic trough approaching from the Chukchi Sea. Widespread rain
and gusty winds would occur over the Lisburne Peninsula. The
Alaska Range Chinook/gap wind gradient would diminish by this
time. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms would be focused on
where west-east oriented short wave energy remains over the
northern Interior and Brooks Range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
A low pressure system will move from the Bering Sea to near
Norton Sound by Monday. Gusty southwest winds 30-40 mph could
occur. We will continue to monitor water levels for the Yukon
Delta coast southward. Current projections show minor 1-2 feet of
surge above the highest tide line Monday.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.

&&

$$

Maier/Lewis