568
FXAK69 PAFG 041334
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
534 AM AKDT Sun Oct 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior
-Light rain and/or snow chances continue in the Interior through
midweek. Precip will become mixed/rain in the Tanana Valley by
Sunday evening. Accumulating snow is most likely at higher
elevations in the Northern Interior.

-Gusty winds continue at high elevations in the Interior and in the
AK Range Passes. Gusts up to 35 mph are possible through Sunday
evening everywhere except for Isabel Pass, where they continue
through Monday afternoon.

-High temperatures briefly warm into the mid/upper 40s in the Tanana
Valley on Sunday and Monday before dropping back into the mid/upper
30s on Tuesday. Highs stay in the 30s elsewhere.

West Coast and Western Interior...
-Wind gusts up to 30 mph continue along the West Coast and at high
elevations in the Interior through Sunday evening. Gusts up to 35
continue along the Bering Strait Coast and on St. Lawrence Island
through Tuesday evening.

-Precipitation chances return along the lower Yukon and the Interior
Sunday morning, but any rain/snow showers will be incredibly
isolated. Precipitation coverage increases Monday morning and
continues through Wednesday, but consistent accumulating snow is
unlikely at lower elevations.

-Sunday will be the warmest day in the Interior for a while, with
highs in the low 30s-low 40s. Temperatures cool into the upper 20s-
upper 30s by Wednesday afternoon.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
-Chances for snow continue through midweek primarily east of the
Dalton. 4-8" of snow are expected in the Eastern Brooks Range and 1-
2" on the Eastern North Slope Sunday afternoon through Wednesday
afternoon.

-East/Northeast winds increase in the Western Brooks Range and
Western Arctic Coast Sunday evening through Tuesday evening, with
gusts up to 45 mph possible.

-Temperatures along the coast cool slightly over the next couple of
days. Highs will be in the upper 20s-upper 30s Sunday afternoon, and
drop into the low 20s-low 30s by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Chances for precipitation stay in the Eastern Interior, along the
lower Yukon, and in the Southwest Interior on Sunday, but a majority
of Northern Alaska will see precipitation by Wednesday.
Precipitation will fall as snow from the Brooks Range north and vary
south of the Brooks Range. Gusty winds in the Interior calm Sunday
afternoon/Monday, but linger along the Bering Strait Coast and in
the Western Brooks Range through Tuesday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Current satellite imagery shows two lows offshore that will dictate
weather in Northern Alaska despite staying south of the Alaska
Range.

The first low is located in the Gulf of Alaska just southwest of the
Kenai Peninsula. This low and an associated front move north
over the course of Sunday, bringing precipitation to the Eastern
Interior. Precipitation will primarily fall as snow from
Fortymile Country north, though above-freezing highs will limit
consistent accumulating snow to higher elevations. Precipitation
will become mixed/rain in the Tanana Valley Sunday
morning/afternoon when the valley starts to get downslope flow.
Downsloping will also be the reason that the Tanana Valley will
be the warmest area north of the Alaska Range Sunday and Monday,
with high temperatures in the mid/upper 40s.

The second low is in the vicinity of St. Paul Island. This low is
much stronger (about 975 mb) and has already begun building NE/SW
pressure gradient across much of the state. East/northeast wind
gusts have already started to increase on the West Coast, at higher
elevations in the Interior, and in the AK Range Passes. A majority
of gusts will peak Sunday morning (at about 35 mph) and decrease
Sunday evening into Monday as the low moves into the Gulf. The
Western Arctic Coast and Bering Strait Coasts are the exception as
the the low leaves an E/W pressure gradient in its wake as it moves
to the southeast. As a result, wind gusts in the 30-40 mph range
remain in the area until Tuesday evening. In addition to stronger
winds, the low will bring intermittent rain and/or snow showers to
the Slower Yukon and Southwest Interior as it spins a series of
shortwaves over the area.

An Arctic trough starts to move east across Northern Alaska starting
Tuesday, swinging a front along with it. This front will bring
another T-2" of snow to lower elevations in the Northern Interior
and on the North Slope, with 2-5" expected at higher elevations
(there will be locally higher amounts over the tallest peaks in the
Brooks Range). Precipitation will vary in the Central and Southern
Interior due to warmer temperatures, with snow more likely at higher
elevations and overnight. The front will move southeast throughout
the day on Wednesday and into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Ridging starts to build over Western Alaska Wednesday evening,
pushing the front to the east on Thursday and Friday. There`s still
a bit of model disagreement on the strength and orientation of the
ridge, which would determine how quickly the front is able to move
east. Differences in the timing of the front will primarily impact
precipitation type in the Southcentral/Southeastern Interior, as
temperatures will be above freezing during the day and below
freezing at night.

Model guidance is slowly starting to converge in regards to the low
in the Bering late next week, at least initially. Confidence is
increasing that ridging over the state will cause the low to stall
in the Western Bering as it approaches the state. However, models
have not reached consenus regarding the strength/orientation of both
the ridge and the low as it approaches. This will determine where
and for how long the low stalls. Portions of the West Coast could
see strong winds, heavy precipitation, and water rises, but the
location and duration of the low stalling in the Bering will
determine the location and level of greatest impacts. Eventually,
the low will be able to break the ridge down and move east, but
models are not in agreement about when that would be. The earliest
ensemble members have it moving east Friday, though most are
favoring a Saturday/Sunday time frame. There is even less agreement
in the track of the low as it moves onshore, but we will continue to
monitor the system.

Coastal Hazard Potential...
We are continuing to monitor another low pressure in the Bering
arriving as early as Thursday. This storm could potentially be
impactful for portions of the West Coast, but model confidence is
remains incredibly low. Strong winds and water level rises are
likely to occur late week, but it is still too early to identify
where the most significant impacts will occur, and even how
significant those impacts will be. We will continue to provide
updates as the storm develops.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns for the next week outside of coastal
impacts.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ805.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM AKDT this evening for
     PKZ805.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT
     this evening for PKZ806.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT
     Monday for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT
     Monday for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM AKDT this
     afternoon for PKZ852.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT
     Monday for PKZ854.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ854-
     856.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ857.
&&

$$
KEY MESSAGES...SCHLEZINGER
SYNOPSIS.......SCHLEZINGER
SHORT TERM.....SCHLEZINGER
LONG TERM......SCHLEZINGER
COASTAL........SCHLEZINGER
HYDROLOGY......SCHLEZINGER