241
FXAK69 PAFG 190042
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
Issued by National Weather Service Anchorage AK
342 PM AKST Tue Nov 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Little to no change in the forecast since the previous
discussion. A broad trough over the Bering Sea with an associated
area of low pressure has continued to support a series of low
pressure systems moving into Western Alaska, with gusty winds,
widespread snow, and warming temperatures along the West Coast,
Western Interior, Central/Western Brooks Range, and NW Arctic
Coast. An overlap of gusty winds and snow could lead to
significant reductions in visibility at times, although this
threat is diminishing as warmer air is being advected in from the
south and not allow for as much in the way of blowing snow.
However, these conditions are still possible, and Winter Storm
Warnings, as well as Winter Weather Advisories have remained in
place for the Yukon Delta north through the Seward Peninsula and
NW Arctic Coast for gusty winds and snow/blowing snow through
tomorrow. A rain/snow mix will be possible across southern
portions of the West Coast as warmer temperatures build in.

Across the Central/Eastern Interior, conditions have and will
continue to remain drier overall with more isolated to scattered
snow chances, as temperatures also see a warming trend. Best chances
for more moderate snow in this corridor will remain confined to
higher elevations and in the Brooks/Alaska Ranges.

Snow chances are expected to continue across Northern Alaska through
the rest of the week as a series of low pressure systems and
fronts in the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska continue to support
moisture transport into our region, but then going into the
weekend there has been increasing confidence of a strong area of
high pressure building in over Alaska starting early next week,
supporting cooler and drier conditions returning.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Conditions remain mostly dry overall with isolated to scattered
  snow showers possible through the weekend.

- A warmer airmass will continue to build into the Interior this
  week, with highs reaching back into the single digits and teens
  above zero and lows in the single digits above and below zero.

- A colder and drier airmass will return heading into early next
  week as snow chances diminish.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- An active weather pattern continues through tomorrow across
  Western Alaska as a series of storms in the Bering Sea bring
  gusty winds, widespread snow, and warmer temperatures.

- Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories remain in
  effect along the West Coast and at St. Lawrence Island, where
  the heaviest snow and strongest winds are expected. Localized
  blizzard conditions are possible at times.

- Strongest wind gusts through Wednesday night will peak around
  30 to 50 mph, strongest offshore and at St. Lawrence Island
  where gusts up to 60 mph are expected. A secondary system will
  be moving in tomorrow, and reinforcing chances for more snow.

- Temperatures will continue to see a steady warming trend with
  southerly flow. While predominant snow is expected, a rain/snow
  in place. A mix will be possible across lowest elevations,
  particularly the southern coastlines.

- Temperatures will begin to steadily drop off beginning this
  upcoming weekend and going into the early part of next week, as
  a cooler and drier pattern sets in.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- A series of systems moving north across Western Alaska will
  continue to support widespread snow moving into the
  Central/Western Brooks Range (including Atigun Pass) and NW
  Arctic Coast through tomorrow, and then chances of snow will
  gradually taper off by later in the week into the weekend and
  beyond.

- Gusty winds are expected today into tomorrow across higher
  elevations and coastal regions, leading to areas of blowing snow
  and significant reductions in visibility at times.

- Colder and drier conditions are expected to continue in the
  Eastern Brooks Range and NE Arctic Coast.

- Temperatures will continue to see a warming trend overall this
  week, with highs by Wednesday reaching back into the teens and
  20s above zero and lows in the single digits and teens, but then
  begin to drop off this upcoming weekend into early next week as
  a much colder and drier pattern establishes itself over the
  region.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Tonight through Thursday.

Models are gradually coming into better agreement with the next
storm that is set to move up from the Bering Sea on Wednesday.
There remain some track and even shape differences with the low;
as such, forecast confidence seems to be lowest for St. Lawrence
Island. With models trending towards stronger winds around this
low, blizzard conditions are looking increasingly likely for
portions of Yukon Delta, St. Lawrence Island, and communities
around Norton Sound.

The forecast for snow amounts looks to be on track. For some of
the higher elevations within the Seward Peninsula, there could be
a few areas receiving as much as 2 feet of snow through tomorrow.
Otherwise, generally additional amounts 6 to 9 inches can be
expected for most of the southern facing slopes, and generally 3
to 6 inches for the lower elevations within the Y-D Delta, through
tomorrow. There may also be some localized areas of blizzard
conditions possible at times, although the warming of the airmass
with the more southerly flow in place will help to mitigate this
potential threat or keep blizzard conditions more short-lived.
Strong and gusty winds are still jamming just off the northern
coast of St. Lawrence Island and towards Savoonga, with occasional
gusts up to 50 mph. These winds are expected to weaken, and
conditions will improve tonight going into tomorrow and the low
continues to fill and move northeast.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Friday night through next Tuesday.
Ensembles have been persistent in showing a rather strong ridge
moving up from the Bering Sea into the Chukchi Sea, which is going
to allow for a more stable and much colder pattern beginning this
upcoming weekend and going into early next week. Chances of snow
will remain mostly confined over the Upper Tanana Valley, and
Yukon Flats along the Alcan Border, as well as portions of the
eastern Interior, otherwise, most of the region is expected to
remain mostly dry with colder temperatures setting in over the
Mainland under a very strong longwave ridge that will continue to
build in over the state going into the early part of next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ814>819-824>826.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ820>823-827.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806-816-851.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806-817-852-854.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ810.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-850-857-858.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812-856>858.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816-851.
     Gale Warning for PKZ817.
     Gale Warning for PKZ852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.

&&

$$