486
FXAK69 PAFG 262242
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
242 PM AKDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- High pressure overhead will continue to bring clearer skies,
  drier conditions, & warmer high temperatures through the rest
  of the weekend.

- Afternoon highs will climb to between around 50 to around 60
  for Saturday & Sunday as overnight lows remain cooler,
  holding in the 20s & 30s with locally colder spots in the
  teens.

- Temperatures begin a cooling trend on Monday with afternoon
  highs dropping into the 30s & 40s.

- A Wind Advisory remains in effect through Saturday night
  for strong southerly winds through the Isabel & Windy Alaska
  Range passes with gusts peaking at around 60 mph.

- Chances for light rain showers & high elevation snow showers
  will remain possible the Alaska Range through the remainder
  of the weekend west of the Tok Cutoff. Isolated light
  rain/snow shower chances are expected to return to the rest of
  the Interior for Monday into Tuesday, as temperatures begin
  to trend appreciably cooler.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- As a low in Bristol Bay moves east-southeastward over the
  weekend, it will steadily weaken as the low center moves
  onshore around the northwestern Alaska Peninsula Sunday
  morning. This track will support another round of light
  scattered showers & continued breezy winds across Southwest
  Alaska with some isolated showers farther north.

- Highs will hold through the weekend in the 40s to mid 50s
  with lows in the 30s/40s. Rain chances will expand early next
  week farther east into the Western Interior as temperatures
  begin to trend cooler.

- Winds will shift to being out of the north on Sunday, with
  gusts around 30 to 45 mph continuing along the West Coast /
  Bering Strait area through midweek next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- High pressure overhead will continue to bring clearer skies,
  drier conditions, & warmer temperatures through the rest of
  the weekend.

- Winds will increase across the Arctic Coast Sunday into
  Monday, with gusts to around 30 to 45 mph out of the north
  expected through Tuesday.

- Rain/snow chances will increase Sunday onwards to eventually encompass
  all of the North Slope and Brooks Range as temperatures begin
  to trend cooler. Any snowfall accumulations look to remain
  light at around 1-2 inches at elevation.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...Through the rest of the weekend, a ridge of high
pressure keeps it`s influence over the eastern parts of northern
Alaska, which will continue to keep benign weather across the area
with drier conditions & clearer skies across a good portion of the
area, especially for the central & eastern Interior, while
southwestern portions of the region will continue to experience some
chances for light rain showers & breezier conditions from an area of
low pressure moving southeastward through Bristol Bay Saturday
evening, toward the Alaska Peninsula through Sunday morning, & into
the Gulf of Alaska by the end of the weekend. Gusty southerly gap
winds will continue into Sunday with some chances for light showery
precipitation becoming more wintry as you increase in elevation. As
the low approaches & moves over Bristol Bay Saturday afternoon
through Saturday night, easterly winds become a bit breezier across
the Interior as the east-to-west pressure gradient becomes a bit
tighter. As we get into early next week & move through mid-week,
chances for wrap-around showers increase as easterly shortwaves
start to move-in, rotating around the aforementioned area of low
pressure, once it moves into & slowly moves eastward through the
northern Gulf of Alaska while weakening. Model forecast temperatures
aloft at 850mb show warm air advection out of the south, which will
keep SFC temperatures on the mild side across the entirety of our
AOR through the end of the weekend. The big pattern shift arrives
next week as widespread general trofing settles in across all of
northern alaska, which will give general northwesterly flow,
bringing in cold air advection, cooling off our temperatures across
the region to more seasonable values. Along our coastal areas, winds
really pick-up along with the enhanced gradient associated with that
trofing as it pushes in, especially for the Bering Strait area.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Through Monday Night/...

Through Sunday night - For the Bering Sea Coast area: As of
Saturday afternoon, a ridge of high pressure is holding onto its
influence across eastern portions of the state with a 979mb low
moving through Bristol Bay while progressively weakening. The
ridge is pushed out of the way by the low as it pushes
southeastward, moving over the Alaska Peninsula, & into the
north-central Gulf of Alaska through the end of the weekend.
This track will keep general chances for rain light showers
continuing for southwestern areas along with some breezier
conditions through the weekend. Another ridge moving in from the
west/Siberia into the Bering will work to scoot that low east-
southeastward while the low continues to weaken.

Through Sunday night - For the Interior, Brooks Range, North Slope,
& Arctic Coast: Generally benign weather is expected to continue
with drier weather conditions, milder temperatures, & clearer skies
as the region remains under the influence of a ridge of high
pressure through the weekend. Model forecast temperatures aloft at
850mb show warm air advection out of the south, which will keep SFC
temperatures on the mild side across the entirety of our AOR through
the end of the weekend. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the Isabel
& Windy Alaska Range passes into Sunday morning. This is due to a
tightened pressure gradient being setup between the aforementioned
low that is moving through Bristol Bay & the ridge that is still
poised to the east. Frequent wind gusts look to reach up to around
60 mph. This enhancement is due to a shortwave with an associated
vort-max & mountain wave depicted aloft in 500mb model output, which
will work to enhance the southerly winds overhead & help to mix
those winds down to the SFC. Across the interior, even at lower
elevations, it will also become a bit breezier/gustier as that
aforementioned pressure gradient tightens up as that low moves
through Bristol Bay through Saturday night.

For Monday through Monday night - Across Our Entire AOR:
Starting Monday, a general trofing pattern will be set-in across
northern Alaska, which will begin to bring increased
cloudiness, chances for showers, & colder, more seasonable
temperatures to all of our AOR. With the general northwesterly
flow, cooler, more seasonable temperatures are expected as it
indicated by 850mb model temperature forecasts, showing solid
Cold Air Advection over our AOR. For the eastern & central
Interior, light showery activity is expected to begin from
easterly shortwaves starting to rotate counterclockwise around
the parent low located over the northern Gulf of Alaska,
bringing in increased moisture & enhanced lift via 500mb vort-
maxes moving overhead with these shortwave trofs. The cooler
temperatures that will begin to be in place will increase the
likelihood of wintry precipitation, especially for higher
elevations, the north slope, & for portions of the Interior
outside of Fairbanks starting Monday night. Any accumulations
look to remain on the light side.

&&

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Friday/...The extended begins with an
elongated trough in the Western Gulf of Alaska, and an arctic low
settled north of the Brooks Range. On Tuesday this elongated trough
will track towards the eastern Gulf. As it does, it will help guide
cooler air from the arctic low south and spread it throughout Alaska
by Tuesday evening. Temperatures are expected to trend cooler, with
the North Slope potentially dropping to highs between 30 to 35, and
high temperatures south of the Brooks Range dropping to the middle
to upper 40s; lows are expected to range between the 20s and 30s
respectively. Wednesday through Friday, the arctic low will send a
series of cold fronts that will reinforce these cooler temperatures,
helping them persist throughout the extended period. Along with
cooler weather, there is an expectation for scattered precipitation
through the North Slope and Interior. The North Slope should
experience primarily snow, while the Interior may see a rain/snow
mix, with snow expected in higher elevations.

Looking further ahead into next weekend, model guidance supports the
possibility for another storm to approach southwest Alaska. However,
because this system is further out, there isn`t enough model
agreement to confirm this storms track. This system`s track will
continue to be monitored throughout the week.


.COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL.../Tonight through Next Week/...No
appreciable coastal flooding concerns are expected at this
time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Precipitation chances are expected to remain near
zero for Fortymile Country & the Upper Tanana Valley through Sunday
night. High temperatures will continue to be on the mild side for
that timeframe, getting into the lower-50s with afternoon Minimum
Relative Humidity values getting as low as between 40 & 45% for
Saturday. There will be a moistening trend through the rest of the
weekend with Minimum Relative Humidity values being between 50 & 55%
by Sunday afternoon. Winds out of the east-southeast, gusting to
between 15 & 20 mph, will gradually diminish through Saturday night.
Broad trofing pushes the ridge eastward out of the area as we move
into next week, bringing in cooler temperatures, an appreciably more
moist airmass, & chances for shower activity from the east from
easterly shortwaves rotating around a broad low hanging out in the
northern Gulf of Alaska.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...No hydrologic concerns are expected through the forecast
period at this time.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ847.
     Wind Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ849.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ801-
     806-807-856.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ802-
     853.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ810-
     817-850.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ811-
     854-857.
&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Chambers
SYNOPSIS...Chambers
SHORT TERM...Chambers
LONG TERM...Donner
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...Chambers
FIRE WEATHER...Chambers
HYDROLOGY...Chambers