799
FXAK69 PAFG 102358
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
358 PM AKDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm weather will characterize the week ahead across most of
Northern Alaska. With a warm air mass developing across the area,
highs will rise into the 70s and 80s in the valleys with a general
warming trend heading into the weekend. Isolated shower activity
will be possible today and Tuesday but will have only minor
accumulations. By Wednesday, better chances for showers and
thunderstorms return in Western Alaska and will shift northward
into the northwestern Interior and Brooks Range by Thursday.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- A few rain showers are possible through this evening as a quick
  moving weak disturbance drops south near the AlCan border. Any
  rainfall will be light and most places will stay dry.

- Temperatures warm steadily through the week with highs climbing
  through the 70s to the low 80s by Thursday, continuing into the
  weekend. Mostly clear skies allow low temps to fall into the
  50s each night.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- High pressure results in mostly sunny skies and drier weather
  with high temperatures approaching 70 along the coast and mid
  70s to around 80 across the Western Interior.

- Afternoon and evening shower chances return Tuesday and
  especially Wednesday before diminishing on Thursday evening.
  Isolated thunderstorm chances generally shift from south to
  north during this time frame.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Highs range from near 50 over the Eastern Arctic Coast to the
  mid 70s near Umiat by Wednesday when southerly downslope flow
  develops north of the Brooks Range.

- Rain shower chances increase across the eastern Brooks Range and
  eastern Arctic Coast through tonight then diminish on Tuesday.
  Across the west, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
  are possible Wednesday evening into the late work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Monday night through Thursday/...

The primary 500mb weather-makers in the short-term period are 576dm
ridging centered near McGrath and a 560 dm closed low over the
Beaufort Sea. A weak and moisture starved disturbance embedded
within northwest flow aloft is resulting in an agitated cumulus
field between Eagle and Fort Yukon. The latest radar imagery shows
isolated showers near Central and satellite imagery implies that
these showers extend eastward in Canada with clear skies westward
across much of the rest of northern AK.

The 576 dm ridge gradually weakens tonight through Tuesday, but then
builds again Tuesday night and Wednesday. Additionally, the ridge
axis pivots eastward across most of the interior allowing southerly
flow aloft to spread north across the Alaska Range. Even though
winds are weak, this allows 850mb temps to warm a few degrees each
day late this week. As a result, surface temperatures warm to near
80F by Thursday across the interior valleys. Farther west, a
shortwave disturbance embedded within southerly flow to the west of
the ridge axis focuses shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday thru
Thursday, but especially on Wednesday. Farther north, southerly flow
spreads across the Brooks Range Tuesday night into Wednesday
allowing for temperatures warming into the low 70s. By Thursday,
temperatures warm into the mid-70s across the central North Slope
near Umiat. Shower/thunderstorm chances increase during the
afternoon and evening, especially across the western Brooks Range
and western North Slope.

&&

.LONG RANGE.../Thursday night through Sunday/...
The extended begins  with a ridge oriented from northeast Alaska
to the southwest. This system will coincide with dry weather, and
warmer temperatures. Throughout this period it is likely to see
temperatures range between the 70 to 80s throughout most of the
Interior with temperatures reaching low to mid 70s along the
Brooks Range Thursday through Sunday. Along the boundaries of the
ridge, scattered/isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the
northwest Arctic Coast on Thursday and the North Slope the
following Friday. There is lower confidence in the timing and
placement of the shortwaves along the ridge axis, and need to be
monitored as model guidance suggests possible variations in
location and intensity. Offshore a Bering Sea low will bring
showers and wetter conditions along the West Coast throughout the
extended period.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures will be on the rise throughout the week with many areas
reaching the 80s by the end of the week due to upper-level ridging
persisting over the state. This ridge also results in persistently
light winds. Temperatures will be warmest in the southwest Interior
today as high as the upper 70s to 80 while the rest of the Western
and Central Interior will likely see mid 70s. Widespread upper 70s
to low 80s will be likely by Friday. Min RHs will be decreasing
throughout the week, starting to as low as 35% today to 25% by
Friday, with the driest area expected in the Upper Tanana Valley
towards the end of the week. Showers with wetting rains will be
possible for the West Coast and Western Interior mid-week due to
some shortwave energy moving through the area that will likely have
some embedded thunderstorms as well. These showers may cool
temperatures down slightly for the Western Interior, but they will
likely still linger in the 70s. Thunderstorms will be likely mainly
for the Western Interior beginning Wednesday and shift northward to
the northwest Interior and western North Slope on Thursday.
Throughout this time, the Interior is expected to stay dry.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Saltzman
KEY MESSAGES...Saltzman
SHORT TERM...Kutta
LONG RANGE...Donner
FIRE WEATHER...Lewis