834
FXAK69 PAFG 251315
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
515 AM AKDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will continue to build into northern Alaska today
with warmer and dry conditions, leading to a cool morning with
lows in the 30s/40s followed by highs in the 60s/70s for most. The
exception to dry conditions will be across southwest Alaska, as a
low pressure tracking southeast today will support rain showers
south of the Seward Peninsula across the Y-K Delta and far
southwest Interior. A cold front remains on track to work
southeast out of the Chukchi Sea later today, reaching Northwest
Alaska this afternoon and evening. This front will support an
organized band of precipitation and breezy winds passing northwest
to southeast across our region tonight into Sunday and early
Monday, with a rain/snow mix expected for the Brooks Range north
to the Arctic Coast. The heaviest snow accumulations will be on
Sunday into Sunday night across northern slopes of the Brooks
Range, where around 3-6" of snow is expected for Atigun Pass north
to Toolik and Ice Cut Hill, with around 1-3" for Anaktuvuk Pass.
Any snow totals farther north will be up to a T-1". Cooler
temperatures will accompany and fill in behind the front as it
passes overhead, ahead of increasing high pressure building in
towards midweek with warmer and drier conditions. A secondary cold
front looks to push south Wednesday and Thursday, with another
round of precipitation and breezy winds.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Following a cool morning in the 30s/40s, today is shaping up to
  be a beautiful day across the Interior. Expect dry conditions,
  highs in the 60s to low 70s, light winds, and plenty of
  sunshine.

- A cold front working southeast over the Brooks Range with pass
  over the Interior later in the day Sunday into Monday, with
  scattered rain showers, isolated thunderstorms, breezy winds,
  and cooler temperatures.

- Rainfall totals later Sunday into Monday are expected to remain
  light overall, with up to around 0.10-0.20" for most locations.
  Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and
  evening hours both days, favoring the higher terrain between the
  Yukon Flats and Tanana Valley.

- Highs in the 60s to low 70s over the weekend will cool behind
  the front for Monday to the 50s/60s. Increasing high pressure
  building in towards midweek will lead to warming and dry
  conditions for Tuesday and Wednesday as highs return to the 60s
  to low 70s.

- Another cold front is expected to track southeast over the
  Interior late Wednesday into Thursday with scattered rain
  showers and breezy winds.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A weak low moving across southwest Alaska today will support
  isolated to scattered light rain showers for the Yukon Delta and
  far southwest Interior as dry conditions prevail elsewhere under
  increasing high pressure. Areas of low stratus and fog will
  continue across western Alaska today, particularly in the Kobuk
  Valley and along the West Coast.

- Temperatures this weekend will be warmest today with highs in
  the 50s/60s to low 70s, trending cooler for Sunday as a cold
  front works southeast from the Chukchi Sea tonight into Sunday,
  bringing scattered rain showers and gusty winds.

- Rainfall totals tonight through Sunday night are expected to
  remain light overall, with up to around a T-0.10" for most
  locations, locally higher across the Kobuk Valley and northwest
  Arctic Coast around 0.10-0.40" with higher totals up in the
  Brooks Range.

- Warmer and drier conditions will return for Monday and Tuesday
  with increasing high pressure, with another cold front on track
  to move into northwest Alaska Wednesday into Thursday with
  scattered rain showers and breezy winds.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Following a cool morning today in the 30s/40s, highs will climb
  into the 50s/60s for most with low 70s around Deadhorse and the
  Arctic Plains, as high pressure leads to dry conditions through
  this afternoon.

- Winds will increase today west to east ahead of a cold front
  moving in from the Chukchi Sea. Strongest winds today are
  expected along the Northwest Arctic Coast with gusts up to 45
  mph. Wind gusts up to around 40 mph will shift into the Brooks
  Range and Eastern Arctic Coast throughout the day Sunday into
  Sunday night as lighter, albeit still breezy winds, fill in
  behind the front.

- A cold front tracking northwest to southeast from the Chukchi
  Sea will move into the central/western Arctic Coast this
  afternoon and evening with widespread rain, shifting east
  tonight into Sunday.

- As much colder air builds in on the backside of the front, a
  changeover from rain to all snow is expected for the eastern
  North Slope and central/eastern Brooks Range Sunday morning and
  afternoon. Pockets of freezing rain and sleet look to remain
  minimal.

- The heaviest snow accumulations will be on Sunday into Sunday
  night across northern slopes of the Brooks Range, where around
  3-6" of snow is expected for Atigun Pass north to Toolik and Ice
  Cut Hill, with around 1-3" for Anaktuvuk Pass. Any snow totals
  farther north will be up to a around a T-1".

- Rainfall/snow water equivalent totals through Monday will be
  around 0.10-0.25 regionwide, locally higher across the southern
  Arctic Plains and in the Brooks Range around 0.25-0.75".

- Dry conditions will return west to east Sunday into Monday as
  initially cooler temperatures see a warming trend through
  midweek. A secondary cold front remains on track to move in
  Wednesday into Thursday with scattered showers and gusty winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION...Today through Monday Night.

Early morning satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast
oriented ridge of high pressure over northern Alaska, with one low
centered in the Northwest Territories and another over the Bering
Strait. Farther north across the high arctic, a deep and very
broad polar low remains centered around 85N. Any rain/snow from
yesterdays cold front across the eastern Interior and North Slope
has shifted into northwestern Canada today, with dry and warmer
conditions expected regionwide today for most. The only exception
to these drier conditions will be out across Southwest Alaska
where that low centered over the Bering Strait will track
southeast towards the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak today into
tonight with scattered light rain showers. Light rain will remain
focused south of the Seward Peninsula down towards the Yukon Delta
and far southwest Interior.

An arctic trough will be ejected from that main polar low in the
high arctic today into Sunday, with a cold front expected to track
southeast out of the Chukchi Sea across northern Alaska with an
organized band of precipitation and gusty winds. Winds have
already begun to ramp up from the Bering Strait north to Point
Hope and Point Lay where wind gusts around 30-50 mph have been
observed. This stronger wind field will expand as the front
traverses the state, with precipitation first reaching the
northwest Arctic Coast this afternoon and evening. This organized
band of rain will push southeast tonight into Sunday, as much
colder air fills in on the backside of the front, particularly for
the Brooks Range and across the North Slope. As a result, a
changeover from rain to all snow is expected for the eastern North
Slope and central/eastern Brooks Range Sunday morning and
afternoon. Pockets of freezing rain and sleet look to remain
minimal.

The heaviest snow accumulations will be on Sunday into Sunday
night across northern slopes of the Brooks Range, where around
3-6" of snow is expected for Atigun Pass north to Toolik and Ice
Cut Hill, with around 1-3" for Anaktuvuk Pass. Any snow totals
farther north will be up to a around a T-1". The speed of the
front will be the main driver of snow amounts in this corridor,
with a slower track favoring heavier snow and a quicker track
favoring less. The latest ECMWF actually develops a weaker closed
low over the eastern North Slope late Sunday into Monday, which
would further accumulating snow chances into Monday. Our latest
forecast aligns closely with the 50th percentile NBM solution,
with a 90% percentile forecast showing up to around 8" possible
from Galbraith to Toolik. A Winter Weather Advisory may be needed
for this corridor to highlight the increasing confidence of
heavier accumulating snow, which coupled with gusty winds, could
lead to hazardous winter travel conditions. Stay tuned.

Elsewhere across our region, we will keep rain as the predominant
precipitation type, with that organized band of rain shifting
southeast throughout the day Sunday into Sunday night and early
Monday. Winds accompanying the front will be strongest for the NW
Arctic Coast today, shifting into the Kotzebue Sound, Brooks
Range, and Eastern Arctic Coast with peak gusts to around 30-45
mph expected in these corridors. Elsewhere, wind gusts will peak
around 20-30 mph. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across
the Eastern Interior during the afternoon and evening hours Sunday
and Monday, favoring the higher terrain between the Yukon Flats
and Tanana Valley.

Broad upper level troughing in the wake of the front on Monday
will keep temperatures cooler across northern Alaska with highs in
the 50s/60s for most with some 30s/40s farther north. High
pressure will then begin to lift northeast Monday night into
Tuesday with warmer and drier conditions heading towards midweek.
More on that below.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 1 and 2...

While a cold front moving southeast from the Chukchi Sea Saturday
night into Sunday will bring gusty northwesterly winds across the
Kotzebue Sound tonight into Sunday, water levels are now only
expected to climb as high as 1 foot above the normal high tide
line across the Kotzebue Sound as opposed to the up to around 2
feet that was previously forecast. Minimal coastal impacts are
expected other than high surf for some areas in this corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION...Tuesday through Friday.

At the start of the extended forecast period Tuesday, the overall
pattern is dominated by 3 main features: a very large upper level
low near the North Pole, a building ridge in the Bering Sea, and
a low in the Gulf of Alaska that stretches a trough to the North
Pole low. Tuesday there is high confidence in benign weather for
the region between these 3 features. Wednesday however is where
confidence begins to falter and forecasts begin to diverge. A
front moving around the North Pole low approaches the region
Wednesday into Thursday. The ridge in the Bering also attempts to
push east into the West Coast/Western Interior. As a result there
is significant model disagreement about the strength, timing, and
southward extent of the front that is expected Wednesday through
Thursday. A stronger front would push precipitation and gusty
winds south of the Brooks Range across much of the West Coast and
Interior and would limit the expected warming and drying of the
approaching ridge. A weaker front would limit much of the
precipitation and gusty winds to the Brooks Range and North Slope,
and allow the ridge to push farther into the Interior warming and
drying the region somewhat.

After the front passes through confidence in the forecast
increases somewhat with pressure likely to increase across the
Interior late in the week. There however remains the chance that
yet another low rotates around the North Pole low and towards the
West Coast which would bring yet another round of wind and rain to
parts of Northern Alaska next weekend. Currently the higher
pressure forecast seems more likely bringing clearer and calmer
conditions, but rainy and gusty is still possible.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The Interior will see a slight increase in favorable fire weather
conditions this weekend as a ridge sets up between systems. By
Saturday morning, rainy and cloudy weather will depart to the
east, allowing skies to clear over most of Interior Alaska.
Temperatures in the Interior on Saturday will climb into the upper
60s and low 70s, but the hottest region may be the eastern North
Slope where temperatures could reach the mid 70s all the way to
the coast thanks to downsloping southerly winds off the Brooks
Range. Relative humidity will be lowest in the Interior, where
areas of low 30 to upper 20 percent will be possible. Winds will
be generally light.

An arctic trough will descend from the northwest overnight
Saturday into Sunday. By Sunday morning, the associated cloud deck
and precipitation will span roughly from the Seward Peninsula to
the Central Brooks Range to Point Thompson, bringing significantly
cooler air in behind it. Temperatures in the Central and Eastern
Interior will have a chance to reach around 70F before the cold
front arrives later in the afternoon. Winds will become gusty
along with the front, westerly ahead of the front in the Interior,
but turning more northerly behind the front closer to the West
Coast as well as through the Alaska Range. Gusts will blow up to
25 mph for much of northern Alaska on Sunday afternoon. Rainfall
amounts associated with this front should be light, generally less
than a tenth except on the North Slope where around a quarter and
in the Brooks Range where around half an inch is expected.

For the start of next week, a cool air mass will continue to
linger over Northern Alaska. Monday will be the coldest day for
most areas of the Interior. Max temperatures will likely be 10 to
15 degrees Fahrenheit cooler than normal, peaking in the low 60s
or 50s. Conditons should remain moderate, but follow a gradual
warming trend through the rest of week, until a ridge provides the
chance for temperatures above 70 again for the latter half of the
week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
With the recent widespread rainfall, rivers and their tributaries
continue to respond and show minor rises as of Saturday morning.
The Kuskokwim River at McGrath has shown the highest rise over the
past several days, with around a 3.5 foot rise since Wednesday.
The Upper Kuskokwim and Alaska Range have seen the highest
rainfall totals around 1.5 to 3 inches this week, with most other
locations picking up around 0.25 to 1.50 inches. While no
flooding is expected, remain mindful of the higher water levels.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813-854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......MacKay
KEY MESSAGES...MacKay
SHORT TERM.....MacKay
LONG TERM......Stokes
FIRE WEATHER...Troyke
HYDROLOGY......MacKay