764
FXAK69 PAFG 190726 AAA
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1126 PM AKDT Wed Jun 18 2025...Updated

....Updated to remove Red Flag Warning Headlines...

.SYNOPSIS...
Once again, it will be warm with thunderstorms. Today`s bullseye
will be centered from the Chena Rec Area to Huslia. The storm
motion will be slow and towards the west, so Fairbanks may get
downsloped as the storms get off the ridge. There are Red Flag
Warnings in place for these areas. Otherwise, it will be another
big lightning day with several thousand strikes, especially in the
higher terrain of the Interior south/west of the Yukon Flats. The
North Slope will and already has gotten into some thunderstorm
action. Isolated to widely scattered storms are expected from the
Brooks Range to the Coast each afternoon through the weekend.
Friday and Saturday in particular may be notable lightning days as
a couple of fronts move north into areas of high CAPE.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Warm with widely scattered storms south and west of the Yukon
  Flats. Scattered thunderstorms expected from Tanana to the Chena
  Rec Area this afternoon and evening.
- Slow moving thunderstorms can bring brief heavy rain, strong
   wind, hail and frequent lightning.

- Thunderstorms will be around tomorrow but to a lesser extent
  then make a rebound on Friday with scattered storms expected
  over the White Mountains.

- Thunderstorms move to mostly the Eastern Interior this weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Warm again with thunderstorms expected. The coast should expect
  a few storms, especially from the Seward Peninsula north.

- Widely scattered to scattered storms with most expected from
  Galena to Huslia, east.
- Slow moving thunderstorms can bring brief heavy rain, strong
   wind, hail and frequent lightning.

- Storms lessen in coverage tomorrow and Friday, then mostly move
  east of the area this weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Warm with isolated thunderstorms as far north as the coast with
  widely scattered storms expected from Atqasuk to the Western
  Brooks Range this afternoon through tonight.

- Isolated storms are expected every afternoon through the end of
  the week, then the risk moves east to the Eastern Arctic Coast
  and Brooks Range this weekend.
- Any storm can come with frequent lightning, briefly heavy rain
   and gusty winds.

- Temperatures remain warm through the weekend and into next week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A 572 decameter ridge continues to sit over the Eastern Brooks
Range this afternoon but it is on the move. East to northeast
flow continues today and this will move the axis for the most
thunderstorm activity east compared to yesterday. This is the main
driver for our weather today. Otherwise, this high will be moving
south and east relatively slowly over the next several days with
the thunderstorm chances gradually shifting north and east through
this weekend. Warm temperatures will persist for the Interior and
North Slope through this weekend with cooler temperatures in the
40s and 50s along the West Coast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag Warnings for lightning are in place for the Southern
Interior from Tanana to the Chena Rec Area. Expect scattered
thunderstorms with high temperatures in the low 80s and min RHs
around 30 to 35%. From the Yukon Flats to Bettles, temperatures
will be in the mid 80s with RHs around 20% and northeast wind
around 10 mph. Otherwise, expect isolated to widely scattered
storms for the rest of the Interior and North Slope this afternoon
with lessening coverage tomorrow. On Friday, there is some
uncertainty with exact coverage of storms given the timing of a
shortwave, but there may be an uptick in coverage in the Interior.
Especially north of Fairbanks and potentially in the Brooks Range
and NE Arctic Coast. Nonetheless, the overall lightning threat
will gradually move north/east this weekend giving much of the
Interior and much needed break from lightning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flooding continues on the North Slope for the Colville, Kuparuk
and Sag Rivers. We are observing water levels dropping for all the
rivers as snowmelt ceases. We expect most of the significant
flooding to be ending later this week or over the weekend. The
active warnings and advisories can be found on our website for the
latest details.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
There is some uncertainty in the extended forecast, not because
the models are not in agreement, but because we don`t agree with
what the models are telling us. Strong ridges don`t like to move
quickly and some of the models take a low from the Bering, move it
into the Gulf of Alaska and blow it through the ridge. This can
happen, but probably not as fast as the models are showing us and
the trends have been later and later with the ridges degradation.
Heading into next week, the ridge, which will be over the Eastern
Interior will likely weaken. The question is how quickly. Our
thoughts right now are that a low will be moving into the Gulf of
Alaska by midweek. This low will lose steam as it runs into the
ridge, then towards Thursday or Friday, split the high, causing a
closed off high pressure to move north and be in nearly the same
spot as it is now in Northeast Alaska. A high in Northeast Alaska
with a low in the Gulf of Alaska would bring easterly flow back
to the Interior along with moisture. Meaning, another outburst of
thunderstorms is possible, though it would be more likely in the
Eastern Interior this time. This setup would form a high over low
pressure, which is also known as a "Rex Block". The atmosphere
could get stuck in another mild, potentially even humid, and
stormy pattern if this were to pan out. However, there is a lot of
uncertainty a week or more into the forecast, but it is a
reasonable possibility for what may happen by mid to late next
week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ804>806-808>810.
     Red Flag Warning for AKZ938>946.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$

Bianco