588
FXAK69 PAFG 201338
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
438 AM AKST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS... Snow continues on the West Coast as a low moves from
south to north over St. Lawrence Island through this afternoon.
Isolated areas of heavy snow are possible, especially in St.
Lawrence Island and southern Seward Peninsula through tomorrow
morning. Lighter snow and snow showers will reside in the Yukon
Delta through Saturday. The Interior will see light to moderate snow
begin to develop Friday afternoon and continue into Sunday,
especially for the eastern Interior and Yukon Flats. On the North
Slope, light snow will develop as well from east to west tomorrow
and continue through the weekend. Beginning next week, we are going
to begin to see a transition towards a colder and drier pattern.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Mostly sunny and dry today, clouds increasing tomorrow with
  snow showers developing along the AlCan Border north of Eagle.

- Light to moderate snow develops across most of the Interior by
  Friday night and continues through Sunday. Several inches of
  snow possible from Tanana to the AlCan Border. There could also
  be some locations along the Alcan Border and within the White
  Mtns which may receive 6" or more through Saturday.

- High temperatures in the teens and low 20s with lows near or
  below zero through the weekend. Temperatures will continue to
  drop off past this weekend, with some areas dropping into the
  -10s and -20s by early next week.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Snow continues for the Bering Strait Region through today.
  Heaviest snow will be in St. Lawrence Island and Diomede with
  additional accumulations up to 6 inches in Gambell and Savoonga.

- Wind gusts along the West Coast increase today through
  tomorrow, gusting 30 to 40 mph in most spots and up to 50 mph in
  the Bering Strait and St. Lawrence Island.

- Some light snow showers will linger through the weekend,
  especially in SW AK and the Western Interior. A few inches of
  snow is possible.

- High temperatures in the 20s and low 30s with lows in the teens
  and 20s through the weekend, coldest in the Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Partly clear skies tomorrow, will become cloudier with
  increasing clouds going into the weekend. More clearing will
  occur next week.

- Stronger winds across the northeastern Arctic Coast will
  gradually come down throughout the day.

- Light snow develops from east to west tomorrow, with steady
  light snow from the Brooks Range northward through the weekend.
  A few inches of snow are possible.

- High temperatures will be in the teens and 20s with lows in the
  single digits through the weekend, then temperatures will begin
  to drop off and become much colder throughout the following
  week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
An elongated upper level trough is parked over the Bering Strait,
with two associated areas of low pressure located over the Chukchi
Sea, and the second is south of St. Lawrence Island. Both of these
features are allowing for unsettled weather to continue today across
the Y-K Delta and Norton Sound. Strongest winds associated with the
low over the Bering Strait will be along the northern shores of St
Lawrence, from Gambell to Savoonga, where winds will be sustained
between 30 to 40 mph, and gusts may occasionally approach 60 mph. As
these lows continue to weaken and eject up to the northeast while
becoming absorbed into the ridge over the Arctic Ocean, it is going
to allow for conditions to improve going into tomorrow. There may
still be a few lingering snow showers going into the early part of
the weekend along the Southwest Coast, while most other areas will
become drier.

Meanwhile, there is another major shortwave trough with an
associated 950mb low at the surface, that is propagating across the
Aleutians this morning and will be entering into the Gulf of Alaska,
and will undergo weak cyclogenesis (intensification) as it does.
This will allow for a tightening of the gradient and force some gap
flow winds through the passes with some indication of a possible
mountain wave set up. This may allow for gusty winds through Isabel
Pass to approach criteria, however the period looks to be rather
brief, and only areas south of Air Force Tower appear to be the most
likely to reach criteria. This will continued to be monitored with
newer model runs later to determine if a product for this area will
be necessary. Regardless, expect rather gusty winds, with gusts
generally up around 30 to 40 mph. This will also help to produce a
low-level jet up through the Tanana Valley, which will also allow
for stronger winds to be possible for places such as Delta Junction.
Moisture will also be advected up from the south and help to
increase snow chances across the eastern Interior/Brooks Range and
Yukon Flats tomorrow through early Saturday. A separate area of low
pressure becoming stalled out right along the AlCan border is also
going to increase snowfall totals around Eagle, and there could be
as much as 6 inches (or possibly more) in the vicinity of this area
through the weekend, otherwise generally more on the order of 1-3"
can be expected across the eastern Interior and Yukon Flats, with
higher amounts expected within the White Mountains.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
By the later half of the weekend, there will still be some show
showers being possible over the eastern portion of the Mainland
going into Sunday, however, there will begin a much drier and colder
pattern beginning to establish itself as a strong ridge begins to
build in over the Bering Sea and then begin to slowly expand across
the northwestern portion of the state as the ridge further
strengthens over the Chukchi Sea, this will allow for most of the
state to become dominated by drier and colder conditions. Ensembles
reveal that there could be some areas across the North Slope and
within the Brooks Range dropping down into the -30s by the middle of
next week as northeasterly flow and clearing conditions continue to
support the drop in temperatures.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ820-821-823-827.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-850-853-857.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806-807.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807-812-816-817-851-854-856-
     858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-810-855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809-811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816-817.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ852.
     Gale Warning for PKZ854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ856.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860-861.
&&

$$

Stewey