254
FXAK69 PAFG 271237
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
437 AM AKDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Afternoon highs will climb into the 50s for Sunday as overnight
  lows remain cooler, holding in the 20s & 30s with locally
  colder spots in the teens.

- Temperatures begin a cooling trend on Monday with afternoon highs
  dropping into the 30s & 40s.

- Chances for light rain showers & high elevation snow showers
  will remain possible the Alaska Range through the remainder of
  the weekend west of the Tok Cutoff. Scattered light rain/snow
  shower chances are expected to return to the rest of the
  Interior for Monday into Tuesday, as temperatures begin to
  trend appreciably cooler.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Scattered showers & continued breezy winds for Sunday across
  Southwest Alaska with some isolated showers farther north.
  Shower coverage diminishes through Monday.

- Highs will hold through the weekend in the 40s to mid 50s with
  lows in the 30s/40s. Rain chances will expand early next week
  farther east into the Western Interior as temperatures begin
  to trend cooler.

- Winds will shift to being out of the north on Sunday, with
  gusts around 30 to 45 mph continuing along the West Coast /
  Bering Strait area through midweek next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Winds will increase across the Arctic Coast Sunday into
  Monday, with gusts to around 30 to 45 mph out of the north
  expected through Tuesday.

- Rain/snow chances will increase Sunday onwards to eventually
  encompass all of the North Slope and Brooks Range as
  temperatures begin to trend cooler. Any snowfall accumulations
  look to remain light at around 1-2 inches at elevation.

- High temperatures dip below freezing Monday and Tuesday and
  will remain below freezing through the remainder of the week
  ahead.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A quiet weather pattern continues across northern Alaska as the
storm track redirects stronger systems into southcentral and
the panhandle through the upcoming week. Some chances of showers
will linger across the Interior from Monday onwards as
lingering moisture supports some isolated showers, especially
Tuesday and Wednesday. Light snow is expected for the Brooks
range and North Slope at times, with minor snow accumulations
possible (1-3"), especially for areas at elevation. Cooler
temperatures build in through the week, with highs reaching only
into the 30s and 40s by Tuesday, and likely to remain below
freezing for most of the week for the North Slope.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Beneath high pressure overhead through Sunday night, benign weather
with milder temperatures, drier conditions, and clearer skies will
continue across northern Alaska. Warm air advection at 850 mb will
support relatively milder surface temperatures across the region
through the end of the weekend, while southerly winds through the
Alaska Range passes continue to diminish as pressure gradients
relax. Meanwhile, across southwestern Alaska and the West Coast, a
weakening low tracking over Bristol Bay and the Alaska Peninsula
into the Gulf of Alaska will maintain chances of light rain showers
and breezy conditions, while an advancing ridge over the Bering Sea
pushes southeastward.

From Monday through Tuesday night, a pattern shift will take hold as
a broad upper-level trough establishes across northern Alaska,
bringing chances for showers and noticeably cooler temperatures
driven by solid 850 mb cold air advection. As the primary low
settles into the Gulf of Alaska, shortwaves rotating around the
northern periphery of the low will interact with 500 mb vorticity
maxima to bring light shower activity to the Central and Eastern
Interior. The influx of colder air will cause precipitation to
transition to a rain/snow mix beginning Monday night, particularly
at higher elevations, across the North Slope, and Interior locations
outside of Fairbanks, though accumulations will remain light.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The fairly quiet weather pattern continues through the remainder
of the week with a few secondary features present which will
keep some chances of snow and rain showers in the forecast for
parts of the area. Aloft, a longwave trough stretching across
the state will continue to steer the strongest systems south of
our area, and into Southcentral and the Southeast Panhandle.
Deep in the Interior, an orphaned shortwave trough associated
with a previous low which has since moved into the Yukon will
provide just enough dynamic support to keep chances of scattered
showers in place for much of the central and eastern interior.
Some of these are likely to be snow showers, particularly in
areas of elevation, though expect at most only minor snow
accumulations. Further north, shortwaves moving in out of the
Arctic will keep chances of light snow in the forecast across
the North Slope and the Brooks Range, with minor snow
accumulations of 1-3" possibly, especially for areas of
elevation.

A few showers are possible along the West Coast through the second
half of the week as one of the previously mentioned arctic
shortwaves develops into a mid- level low and moves south until
eventually getting absorbed by the main steering pattern, but am
not expecting anything beyond a couple of showers there at this
time. The Western interior by contrast will be on the dry side
for the second half of the week. Temperatures across northern
Alaska will continue to be on a downward trend as cold air
advection spills into the area. The North Slope is unlikely to
get above freezing even during the daytime, and the rest of the
area will see highs capping out in the 30s and 40s.


Coastal Hazard Potential...No coastal hazard concerns expected
through the forecast period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Precipitation chances remain at or near zero
through the remainder of the weekend for the Forty Mile Country and
the Upper Tanana Valley. Min RH values of 45 to 55 percent on
Sunday will trend upward through early next week as moisture
filters in, reaching up to 70 to 80 percent by Tuesday. Chances
of scattered showers build in Monday and Tuesday before
diminishing on Wednesday. High temperatures in the 50s on Sunday
will give way to the low to mid 40s through the duration of the
week as cooler weather moves in.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...No hydrologic concerns expected through the
forecast period.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM AKDT
     Monday for PKZ801-807-810-817-856.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT
     Monday for PKZ802-816-853.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ805-
     808.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ806.
     Gale Warning from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ806.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ811-854-857.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT
     Monday for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT
     Monday for PKZ858.
&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...SPANN
SYNOPSIS...SPANN
SHORT TERM...SATCHER
LONG TERM...SPANN
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...SPANN
FIRE WEATHER...SPANN
HYDROLOGY...SPANN