333
FXAK69 PAFG 142248
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
248 PM AKDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- Patchy fog will continue along some valleys across the
  Interior through Monday afternoon.

- A series of fronts are expected to move across the Interior
  through the latter half of the week. These front are expected
  to bring a period of gusty winds and moderate to heavy
  rainfall.

- Rainfall Totals through Thursday afternoon: (Below 1000ft)
  0.5" to 1.25", (Above 1000ft) 1.5" to 2.5".

- Gusty winds move in across the Interior Tuesday night into
  Wednesday. Wind gusts between 30 to 40 mph possible through
  the valleys with higher elevations expected to see gusts
  between 40 and 45 mph. In Addition, gap winds through the
  Alaska Range could see gusts up to 65 mph.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- High Surf Advisory now in effect for the southern portions of
  the YK Delta coast for water levels of 2 to 4 feet above the
  mean high tide line. More info in the Coastal Hazard Section.

- A warm front will continue to move NE from the YK Delta Coast
  throughout the day on Monday. A cold front is expected to push
  east from Bering on Tuesday. This series of fronts is expected
  to bring heavy rain and gusty winds across the West Coast and
  Western Interior.

- Expected rainfall totals through Thursday night: 0.5" and 1.5"
  expected along the West Coast (heaviest amounts along southern
  portions), 1.5" to 2.5" expected across the Western Interior
  (heavier amounts up to 3" possible along the higher terrain).
  A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Upper Kuskokwim.

- Strongest winds move into the YK Delta coast on Tuesday with
  potential gusts up to 60 mph possible. Wind gusts along the
  Middle Yukon and Upper Kuskokwim Valley expected to be between
  35 and 45 mph. A High Wind Watch and a series of Wind
  Advisories remain in effect through Wednesday morning.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Mid to low-lying stratus clouds are expected to continue
  across the North Slope, with periods of isolated showers
  possible at times.

- The warm front reaches the Central Brooks Range Tuesday
  afternoon, bringing another round of rain/snow showers. Most
  of the snow will be confined to the Brooks Range with expected
  totals between 1" and 3".

- A brief period of gusty, northeast winds around 50 mph are
  possible along the NW Arctic Coast on Tuesday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Northern Alaska is heading into a period of active weather as a
Bering Sea low brings heavy rain, wind, coastal impacts and minor
river flooding. The heaviest rain is expected over 1000ft elevation
in the Western and Central Interior while valley locations and spots
along the coast can expect lesser amounts, but still a good deluge
of rain through at least Wednesday afternoon. While heavy rain is
expected south of the Brooks Range, snow is expected in the Brooks
Range due to colder air stationed overhead from Tuesday to Thursday.
Snowfall amounts look to remain light and there may be a few inches
in Atigun Pass, but this time it doesn`t appear to melt quickly as
temperatures remain near or below freezing for the foreseeable
future. Otherwise, after all of this precipitation moves through
from the first Bering Sea low, there will be a much weaker one later
this week that keeps light rain chances through the weekend. As a
result, any high rivers will likely be slow to recover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Satellite imagery shows the NE progression of the warm front
coming across the YK Delta. This front is associated with a
strengthening low in the south-central Bering that will be the
main weather driver for the forecast period.

Over the next several hours, this low is expected to continue
strengthening as it progresses northward. The northerly track
will eventually get blocked by an Arctic cold front moving south
toward the Arctic coast. The track of the low is still expected
to start shifting east once the center reaches the Norton Sound.
However, there are a few distinct differences in comparison to
previous model runs. Starting off, the track of the low has
shifted farther west. This is mainly due to the models having
the low become more organized, and strengthen much earlier than
originally expected. This will allow it to get slightly stronger
and allow the triple-point may form slightly sooner. As a
result, the widespread to moderate heavy rainfall is now
expected to be more spread out across the southern half of the
West Coast out to St. Lawrence Island. This shift also sets up a
more favorable setup for onshore flow along the YK Delta coast,
which could lead to potential coastal concerns. More on this in
the Coastal Hazard section.

By late Tuesday night, the center of the low is projected to be
over the eastern Norton Sound coast. At this point, the low will
have already begun to weaken as the associated upper-level jet
of 300mb will have weakened and pushed farther east. At this
point, the associated cold front will be extended south and
continue to move east across the YK Delta. By Wednesday morning,
the cold front is expected to pass over portions of the Central
Interior. This will help set up colder air aloft. Meanwhile,
the surface gradient will tighten as the low continues to shift
east, setting up the potential for another round of gusty winds
across the Interior starting late Tuesday night into Wednesday.
A southwesterly, low-level jet is also expected to set up across
the Lower Tanana Valley as the main bulk of vorticity moves
across the Interior. With cooler air aloft in place from the
cold front, Wednesday is expected to be breeziest day across the
Interior.

Wednesday night into Thursday, the low will continue to weaken
and push east as a weaker low works its way east toward Bristol
Bay. This will continue to promote west to southwesterly flow
across much of Northern Alaska. A fair bit of moisture and
energy is expected to continue to linger from the previous low as
well, allowing the cool and rainy pattern to continue through
the end of the week.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A very weak low moves onshore from the Bering early Friday, bringing
light and showery precipitation to the West Coast.  Moisture is
expected to linger in the region through the weekend, though totals
will continue to be light. Both GFS and ECMWF Ensembles have the
Arctic trough trending deeper than yesterday, but a secondary
surface low will bring limited impacts north of the Alaska Range for
now. This could change towards the end of the weekend, as the
secondary surface low moves into the eastern Gulf of Alaska,
bringing the potential for southeasterly flow and rain into Upper
Tanana Valley on Sunday/Monday. On the West Coast, the trough axis
orientation favors bringing in colder air Friday and Saturday. As a
result, any lingering moisture from the weak low could be mixed
precipitation or snow later in the day Friday and beyond, especially
at higher elevations and/or north of Kotzebue. Any snow that does
fall likely won`t accumulate, since highs will still be well above
freezing and low temperatures are marginal at best.

As the weekend progresses, the trough shifts southeast deeper into
the Interior. Ensembles are in decent agreement that 850 temperature
anomalies of -4 to -7 C are possible over a large swath of the West
Coast and Western Interior by Monday. If model guidance continues to
bring in this cooler air, there could be the first multi-night
freeze of the season to the region.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential...
A low in the Bering is currently strengthening and will peak around
980mb, 60 miles northwest of Hooper Bay by Tuesday morning. The
position of this low is critical as it will allow for a 24 hour
window of onshore westerly winds in the Yukon Delta from Hooper Bay
to Nunam Iqua. Onshore flow will assist in rising water levels as
high as 2 to 4 feet above the normal high tide line in this area
with the highest levels expected near Hooper Bay and Scammon Bay
while up to 2 feet is expected in Nunam Iqua. Water levels this high
are not uncommon but will likely lead to erosion during the Tuesday
morning and afternoon high tides. Minor inundation of the boat
launch is possible in Scammon Bay during this time. We are not
anticipating water inundation in other locations but the water will
be noticeably higher than normal on Tuesday. Water levels will
remain higher than normal but not concerning levels on Wednesday,
then near normal on Thursday. Updates will continue as
necessary.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...For the Mukluk fire / Upper Tanana Valley area:
Not much to note in regards to fire weather. Monday afternoon is
still expected to be the driest as portions of the Eastern
Interior will still be under the influence of slight ridging.
This is not expected to persist as another round of persistent
cloud cover and scattered showers move in. The Bering low is now
projected to take a slightly more westward track as it moves
north toward the Seward Peninsula. This may slightly reduce the
QPF amounts for portions of the Tanana Valley. However, expected
precipitation totals through Thursday afternoon are expected to
be between 0.05" and 0.15". A front is expected to move NE
across the Alaska Range Tuesday, winds will be relatively weak
out of the southeast. A wind shift is expected Wednesday
afternoon as another front is expected to move across from the
west. Behind this front, winds will shift out of the southwest.
Not much fluctuation is expected as highs will remain in the
mid to upper 50s and lows in the mid to upper 30s.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rain is forecast to begin today in southwest Alaska, then move
northward through the Yukon and Kuskokwim Valleys through this
afternoon and evening. Periods of rain and showers will persist
through at least Wednesday evening with totals upwards of 2.00" in
portions of the Western Interior. The Kuskokwim River is currently
running high and bankfull in McGrath but will be gradually dropping
below bankfull today.

With heavy rain and saturated ground conditions, much of the Western
Interior has the potential for pooling and/or ponding of water
beginning on Tuesday. While the Yukon River is not expected to
flood, smaller creeks and streams will see rises with localized
flooding possible.

In the Central Interior, the Chena River is running higher than
normal. It will approach bankfull conditions tonight into Tuesday
morning, especially east of Fairbanks. With incoming rainfall
potentially upwards of 0.50" to 1.00" from Tuesday to Wednesday, the
river may exceed bankfull later this week. While flooding is not
expected to be widespread, some localized flooding is possible later
this week. The highest potential for flooding would be upriver from
Moose Creek Dam from Friday through the weekend. Latest river
forecasts are hinting at the Chena and Little Chena Rivers
approaching or exceeding minor flood stage later this week.

After all of this rain falls, rivers will likely be slow to recover
because it looks to remain wet through the weekend. So, if any minor
flooding does materialize, it may linger for quite a while.

In addition to the rivers, there is a potential for pooling and
ponding of water in and around the Interior due to the saturated
grounds. Any areas of standing water may make travel difficult.  We
will continue to update as details become clearer.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 1 AM AKDT Wednesday
     for AKZ825.
     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning
     for AKZ825.
     Wind Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 10 AM AKDT Wednesday for
     AKZ830-851-852.
     Wind Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 4 AM AKDT Thursday for
     AKZ834.
     Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
     for AKZ843-844.
     Wind Advisory from 10 PM Tuesday to 10 PM AKDT Wednesday for
     AKZ846.
     Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ847.
     Wind Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for
     AKZ849.
     Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for AKZ852.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ801.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ802-
     807>809-850-855-856.
     Gale Warning from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ803-
     804-811-852-857-858.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT
     Tuesday for PKZ805-816-817-851.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ806.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ810-
     814-853.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for
     PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ814.
     Gale Warning from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT
     Tuesday for PKZ852.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM AKDT
     Tuesday for PKZ853.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT
     Tuesday for PKZ854.

&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Twombly
SYNOPSIS.......Bianco
SHORT TERM.....Twombly
LONG TERM......Schlezinger
COASTAL........Bianco
FIRE WEATHER...Twombly
HYDROLOGY......Bianco/Chambers