868
FXAK69 PAFG 082318
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
318 PM AKDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.SYNOPSIS... Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue in the
Central and Eastern Interior as a cold front works its way through
from west to east. Some Interior Valleys may drop into the low to
mid 30s resulting in areas of frost tonight, especially in the
typically colder valleys such as Goldstream, Chatanika and locations
in the Lower Tanana/Upper Koyukuk. We`ll have a slight chance for
frost from Fairbanks to Delta, but conditions become much less ideal
farther east. Otherwise, the first front bringing snow to the Brooks
Range will end this evening with another 1 to 3 inches of snow
expected in Atigun and Anaktuvuk Passes. A secondary front will
bring light snow to the Arctic Coast late tonight and into tomorrow
morning, but accumulations will be minimal. Drier and warmer weather
returns on Wednesday with chances for thunderstorms increasing over
the Interior later in the week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Scattered showers and isolated storms today.

- Gusty winds this afternoon, as high as 30 mph in the valleys and
45 mph above 1500ft, weakening through Tuesday.

- Dry and chilly tomorrow with a chance for a frost, specifically in
typical colder valleys around Fairbanks and in the Lower
Tanana/Upper Koyukuk.

- Dry and warmer conditions return on Wednesday with a warming trend
towards seasonal norms through the end of the week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Breezy across the area with valley winds up to 30 mph and up to 45
mph above 1500ft today, weakening through Tuesday.

- Drying conditions are expected from west to east today, though
it`s noticeably cooler than yesterday. Tomorrow remains cool   with
localized freezes in the morning, but remaining dry.

- A warming trend begins on Wednesday with more seasonable weather
expected through the end of the week.  North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Brooks Range snow will cease this evening with an additional 1  to
3 inches of snow by 10PM. Areas of light snow and flurries
persisting along the coast through tomorrow morning.

- Unseasonably cold weather persists through Tuesday but warming  up
to near seasonal norms by Wednesday and remaining mild  through the
end of the week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A bit of wet weather to get through today as a cold front traverses
from west to east across Northern Alaska. The Central Interior will
mainly see widespread showers with embedded downpours while the
Eastern Interior sees widespread showers and a chance for
thunderstorms. Any thunderstorm will come with gusty winds,
occasional lightning and heavy rain. West of the front will be
breezy and cooler with gradually clearing skies, while east of the
front is warm, rainy and breezy. Tomorrow morning will be chilly for
most spots with freezes and frosts possible from the West Coast to
the Interior, though Interior frosts become less likely east of
Fairbanks. This front is also producing snow in the Brooks Range
which ceases this evening. A secondary front will push towards the
Arctic Coast tonight into tomorrow morning providing light snow and
flurries with minimal accumulations. Otherwise, a drying and warming
trend arrives on Wednesday across the entirety of Northern Alaska as
weak ridging builds in from the west and east. This won`t turn into
a torchfest as we will only approach our seasonal norms by the end
of the week, but it will be warmer with highs in the 70s across the
Interior, 50s/60s along the West Coast, and 40s to 60s from the
Arctic Coast to the Brooks Range. No significant widespread
precipitation is expected later this week, but with the warmer
temperatures comes an uptick in thunderstorm activity. Currently,
lightning chances look limited to the AlCan Border/Upper Tanana on
Wednesday, but they do become a bit more numerous on Thursday with
storms spreading into the Western Interior. The uptick in
thunderstorms is largely due to an upper level shortwave trough
moving west to east acting as a forcing mechanism. We will see a
similar trend on Friday, but the coverage area will be larger and
spread across most of the Interior.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Generally quiet conditions with widespread wetting rain across the
Central and Eastern Interior today into tomorrow. A warming and
drying trend will arrive on Tuesday in the Western Interior, then
Wednesday in the Eastern Interior as ridging builds in. Beginning on
Wednesday, this new airmass will come with high temperatures in the
70s in the Interior Valleys with 50s/60s along the West Coast
through the end of the week. RHs will drop into the mid 20s across
the Western Interior on Tuesday. These reach the Central/Eastern
Interior by Wednesday. Low RHs are expected to persist into the
weekend. Winds will be strongest today, but relatively tame heading
through the week with the exception of some gusty southwest winds up
to 25 mph Thursday afternoon as a weak front moves into the Western
Interior. There aren`t major fire weather concerns since
temperatures are marginal, but it will be dry, warm and breezy in
Western Alaska. Speaking of the front, this will spark some
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon in the Western Interior. Scattered
thunderstorms are then possible Friday afternoon from the Western
Interior to the Eastern Interior. This could be the biggest
lightning day of the year, which isn`t saying much since most other
days have been pretty minor.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No changes from the previous hydro forecast discussion.

Sagavanirktok, Colville, and Kuparuk Rivers

Below normal temperatures continue across the North Slope, with
APRFC`s breakup map showing some open to mostly open water on the
Sag, Colville, and Kuparuk Rivers outside of immediately along the
Arctic Coast where mostly ice remains in place. Fresh Eyes on Ice
reports indicate that there could be some minor ice jams forming
near the coast, but impacts remain limited at this time and is more
just backing up water.

Colder temperatures will remain in place through Tuesday with
warming temperatures expected by Wednesday. Highs from Wednesday
through the end of the week will range from near 40 along the coast
to the mid 60s in the Brooks Range. This will likely accelerate
snowmelt and lead to rises on North Slope rivers. With the recent
cooldown and drop overall in most river levels, this will likely
give enough room for new snowmelt to join the channels and help
mitigate any significant flooding concerns at this time.
Stay tuned for updates.

For the latest breakup information, visit weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
For Friday through Monday.

A high pressure system will engulf the entire state Friday allowing
warmer, drier weather to persist. The high will weaken as we move
into Saturday and Sunday as a low from the North Pacific moves
northward into our area. By Monday the low pressure system will cut
into the ridge that will establish itself over our state, weakening
its influence. The low pressure system`s impacts will likely remain
short-lived as a redeveloping high will prevent the low from
significantly impacting our region. Models are uncertain of the
strength and positioning of the ridge past Saturday. The main
difference appears to be in a trough weakening the western half of
the ridge on Sunday.

Convective activity is likely Friday afternoon as a warm front
advances into the Central Interior. More organized rain is likely to
impact the southwestern region of Alaska as a result of the low
pressure system arriving from the south Sunday evening. Chances for
precipitation increase through the western half of Alaska on Monday.
Wind gusts through the Bering Strait from Point Hope to St. Lawrence
Island peak around 35mph on Friday and will gradually weaken. Along
the Alaska Range wind speeds peak as the low pressure system moves
into Alaska. Winds strengthen along the coast towards the end of the
week. Allowing the southerly winds to form in the Bering Strait.
With the high pressure system dominating our area, clear, dry
weather is expected to allow conditions to warm, with high
temperatures ranging between 65-75F throughout the Interior and 30-
40F along the North Slope.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Frost Advisory for AKZ844.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-855.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ809.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
&&

$$

Synopsis..............Bianco
Key Messages..........Bianco
Analysis/Discussion...Bianco
Fire Weather..........Bianco
Hydrology.............MacKay/Bianco
Extended..............Donner/Troyke