723
FXAK69 PAFG 032306
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
306 PM AKDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Widespread upper level ridging is set to be broken down and
retreat back to Siberia as an Arctic low will begin to dig down
south by Thursday. As troughs drop south, north/northwesterly
winds over the Brooks Range and Kotzebue Sound will remain
elevated through Friday night. Going into the weekend and into
next week, troughing across the AOR deepens, bring much below
normal minimum temperatures.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Warmer temperatures reaching the low to mid 70s over most of
  the Interior valleys through Thursday.

- Scattered showers are possible for the Alaska Range, Eastern
  Interior, and Northern Interior through the weekend and early
  next week.

- Below to much below normal temperatures this weekend and going
  into next week. Minimum temperatures may get as low as the mid
  to upper 30s.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Warmer temperatures with highs in the low to mid 70s through
  Thursday.

- Mostly clear and dry conditions persist for inland areas through
  Thursday until clouds build in later this week.

- Strong west to northwest gusts Kotzebue Sound through Friday
  night with gusts up to 30 mph expected. Gusts are expected to
  relax overnight before picking up again during the day.

- Below to much below normal temperatures this weekend and going
  into next week. Minimum temperatures may get as low as the mid
  to upper 30s.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Below average conditions are expected to persist with
  temperatures mostly between 30 and 40 degrees through Friday.

- Snow currently over the Utqiagvik area will move into the north
  slopes of the Eastern Brooks Range overnight. Accumulations
  around an inch with higher amounts at elevation in the Brooks
  Range.

- Strong north/northwest gusts are likely to pick up this morning
  over the Brooks Range through Friday night with gusts up to 30
  mph likely.

- Below to much below normal temperatures this weekend and going
  into next week. Minimum temperatures possibly dropping below 20
  degrees along the coast.


&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...

Through Saturday.

Broad, widespread ridging has spread over much of the interior
today, with an upper level Arctic low pressure system beginning to
dig down over the north slope. The arctic low moving in is
expected to be unseasonably strong, with heights around the 1st
percentile or lower at the core. As this low moves further south,
the ridge over the interior will slowly retrograde back into
Siberia. Multiple troughs are expected to move over the interior,
bringing gusty northerly winds along the Brooks Range and Seward
Peninsula. Expecting to see some downsloping and clearing on the
southern portion of the Brooks range and the interior through
Friday, with daytime heating increasing mixing and increasing
gusts to up to 30 mph. As the arctic low moves closer to the north
slope, more moisture from the west is expected to stream into the
interior, increasing precipitation and reducing temperatures to
below normal. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, with
highest chances on Sunday for the central interior, Tanana Valley,
and parts of the YK Delta. Given the precipitation source from
the arctic, not expecting accumulations to be anything but light.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Upper level ridging continues over the state today, bringing clear
skies and warm temperatures to much of Northern Alaska through
Thursday. Across the Interior, shower and thunderstorms chances
remain very low, with little to no wetting rains expected. Minimum
relative humidity values will quickly dry out this afternoon into the
20% range across the Interior Valleys, Yukon Flats, and Fortymile
Country. Elsewhere, minimum relative humidity values will likely
stay below 30% through Friday with overnight recovery into the upper
50% range. Gusty north/northwest winds strengthen this evening
across the Western Brooks Range and Seward Peninsula, expanding into
the Central and Eastern Interior by tomorrow afternoon. Although
these winds will be mainly diurnally driven, gusts as high as 35 mph
are possible at higher elevations, with 15 to 20 mph gusts possible
within the valleys.

A pattern shift starts to take hold on Thursday as strong upper
level troughing builds over the Arctic Ocean. As the trough moves
further south throughout the week, highs will likely dip back down
into the 50s and 60s across the Interior, with minimum relative
humidity values mostly between 40% and 50%. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms with wetting rains are possible across the
Central/Eastern Interior beginning Sunday afternoon through next
week as multiple shortwaves move into the area. With broad scale
troughing expected over the state by the weekend, periods of gusty
west/northwest winds may develop in the afternoons and at higher
elevations. Overall, no critical fire weather conditions are
expected next week.

Santiago


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Sagavanirktok River: Some overflowing is occurring; however, breakup
along the Sag River has not begun yet. Temperatures continue as
below normal, around the low 30s for a high near the coast and
the mid to upper 30s for the northern Brooks Range. Going into the
weekend and into next week, much below normal to possibly record
breaking temperatures with lows possibly below 20 degrees and high
temperatures not exceeding freezing, except near the Brooks Range
where temperatures may reach the upper 30s.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...

For Sunday through Mid Next Week.
At the start of the extended forecast period Saturday, the overall
pattern will be dominated by an unseasonably strong upper level low
moving down from the Arctic. Main story with this pattern is the
very unusual temperatures early next week. High temperatures in the
Fairbanks, Tanana Valley, and Kuskokwim Valley have around a 70-80%
chance to be below 60 degrees, and a 30-40% chance to be below 25
degrees along the North Slope for a high. The bigger story is the
low temperatures, with around a 40% chance of reaching frost
potential for the Fairbanks area, with probabilities increasing in
the northern interior.

No change for the precipitation portion of the ongoing forecast.
Afternoon showers and the occasional extremely isolated afternoon
thunderstorm are possible each day under this pattern. Heavier
showers are only expected when stronger shortwaves rotate through
the pattern across the state. When these cross the region, stronger
northwesterly winds are expected along the Chukchi Sea Coast and
westerly winds across the Arctic Coast are expected as well as
heavier showers. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact
timing and strength of these shortwave features, but there is a good
chance that one will cross the region early next week bringing back
more widespread showers.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-815-855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$