954
FXAK69 PAFG 292318
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
318 PM AKDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Drier conditions expected for the rest of Saturday as higher
  pressure builds in from the southwest behind the rain.

- Breezy west/southwest winds are expected across much of the
  Interior Saturday, with gusts peaking around 25-35 mph for
  most locations.

- Another low moves southeast from the Chukchi Sea across the
  Interior Sunday into Monday.

- Rainfall accumulations Sunday into Monday are expected to be
  around 0.10-0.50", with higher amounts along the northern
  Alaska Range around 0.50-1.00". Snow levels around 3-4,000
  feet will support snow across higher elevations of the
  Interior, with heaviest totals in the Alaska Range.

- Highs are expected to remain in the 40s and 50s through early
  next week, with overnight lows in the 30s to low 40s. Clearing
  skies Monday night may allow for some isolated valley
  locations to reach near freezing early Tuesday morning.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Another low approaches the West Coast from the Chukchi Sea
  late Saturday into Sunday. This system will bring another
  round of rain, high elevation snow, and breezy winds through
  early Monday.

- Rainfall accumulations tonight through Monday are expected to
  be around 0.10-0.50", with dry conditions favored out at St.
  Lawrence Island. Snow levels around 1,000-2,000 feet will
  support light snow across higher elevations of the Seward
  Peninsula, Western Interior, and Brooks Range.

- Southwest winds gust around 20-30 mph across the West Coast
  through Saturday. Winds will increase on Sunday, shifting to
  the northwest with gusts up to around 25-45 mph.

- Highs in the 50s to low 60s Saturday, drop to the the 40s/50s
  early next week, with overnight lows in the 30s and 40s.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Winds, rain, and snow from the previous low exit the region to
  the east late Saturday.

- Another low moves through the Chukchi Sea Sunday. It spins up
  a broader area of low pressure that will keep most of the
  North Slope breezy and showery through much of the upcoming
  week.

- Rainfall accumulations late Saturday through Monday are
  expected to be around 0.10-0.50" (highest farther west), with
  drier conditions expected around Deadhorse to Kaktovik with a
  T-0.10". Snow levels around 1-2,000 feet will support light
  snow across higher elevations of the Brooks Range, with around
  a T-2" expected.

- An uptick in winds will accompany this system, with gusts
  peaking around 15-30 mph, strongest across the Arctic Coast
  and higher elevations of the Brooks Range.

- High temperatures today will be warmest farther west in the
  50s to around 60, as locations farther east stay in the
  30s/40s. That warmer airmass will shift east Sunday as highs
  stabilize starting Monday in the 30s/40s. Overnight lows will
  be in the 30s/40s, locally cooler in the Brooks Range in the
  20s/30s.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
The previous low departs the region to the east. The next system
move into the Chukchi Sea late Saturday and then shifts
southeast through Sunday and early Monday. It will bring cooler
temperatures, breezy winds, and widespread light to moderate
rainfall across most of Northern Alaska Sunday into early
Monday. A brief period of calmer weather follows Tuesday before
another strong low in the Western Bering extends a front to the
West Coast Wednesday and Thursday which brings more wind and
rain to the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At the start of the forecast period, Saturday, the last remnants
of the previous low pressure system exits the region to the
east. Higher pressure builds in from the southwest, sourced from
a large and strong high pressure over the North Pacific. Up
until now this high has been the main driver of our weather by
forcing low pressure systems in the Western Pacific into the
Bering Sea. Our next low pressure system is not coming from the
Bering Sea though. A strong upper level low moves east out of
Siberia Saturday morning into the Chukchi Sea. This upper level
low quickly spawns a surface low over the water that peaks in
strength around 995 millibars. The upper level feature moves
southeast across the Interior late Saturday through Sunday
reaching the Gulf of Alaska by Monday morning. The surface low
beneath it is pulled apart trying to chase it southeast and ends
up rapidly weakening. A weaker surface low does follow the upper
level low south east which helps to support another round of
rain that sweeps across the Interior. This low, being sourced
from the Arctic rather than the Pacific, is significantly less
wet than previous storms with rainfall totals in the 0.10 to
0.50 inch range. The exception will be the northern slopes of
the Alaska Range where upslope flow will significantly enhance
precipitation. Due to the unseasonably cold nature of the
supporting upper level low snow accumulations will be possible
at higher elevations across the Interior.

After this low moves through the region, troughing remains over
much of Northern Alaska. A surface low remained over the Arctic
Ocean north of the North Slope from what was sheared off of the
surface low from earlier. Another upper level low moves
south from near the North Pole towards this area and settles.
This reinforces the troughing over the northernmost portions of
the state and allows for smaller features like shortwaves to
move over the North Slope in waves through much of the upcoming
week. The high pressure over the North Pacific attempts to push
against this troughing pattern which allows for some higher
surface pressure to build into the Interior following the rain
early next week. This allows temperatures to recover and warm
Tuesday through much of next week.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At the start of the extended forecast period, late Tuesday, low
pressure remains over the North Slope, but higher pressure
builds into the West Coast and Interior to moderate the cooler
and more showery conditions of the early week. The next system
of note moves into the Western Bering Sea late Tuesday into
early Wednesday. This low absorbs another low into it and
rapidly strengthens into the 970 millibar range Wednesday. A
front spins off of this low Wednesday and moves towards the West
Coast late Wednesday into Thursday. The low remains in the
Western Bering Sea which will keep the impacts lower, but the
front itself will bring another round of moderate to heavy
rainfall and gusty winds to the West Coast and Western Interior
Wednesday into Thursday. The low itself meanders about in the
Western Bering Sea through the end of the week, potentially
getting close enough to affect the West Coast again Friday into
Saturday, although it will likely have significantly weakened by
then.

Coastal Hazard Potential...
No major concerns. A low moving southeast from the Chukchi Sea
towards the Western Interior Sunday will cause winds to shift to
the west/northwest around 25 to 40 mph. These winds will
increase water levels by around 1 to 2 feet above the normal
high tide line along the Chukchi Sea and Norton Sound Coast. The
far eastern Norton Sound and the Kotzebue Sound will see the
higher end of this range with the high tides Sunday into Monday.
Late next week another large low pressure system in the Western
Bering Sea may start to push towards the West Coast which could
cause some coastal impacts, but there is too much uncertainty in
its track to determine the strength and location of any impacts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather concerns remain low through early next week as
conditions stay well outside of threshold values. Upper level
ridging shifts eastward into Canada Saturday night, with remaining
showers east of Fairbanks tapering off near the Alcan Border by
midnight. South to southwest winds with gusts of 25 to 35 mph will
diminish through the evening, allowing relative humidity values to
make an overnight recovery to above 80 percent. A 995 mb surface low
drops southeast out of the Chukchi Sea, triggering widespread
wetting rain across the Interior Sunday into Monday. General
rainfall totals of 0.10 to 0.50 inches are expected, with 0.50 to
1.00 inches favored along the northern slopes of the Alaska Range.
West to northwest winds will increase Sunday night into Monday, with
gusts peaking between 20 and 40 mph, strongest across higher
elevations and the Upper Tanana Valley. Minimum relative humidity
values drop back to 40 to 50 percent in the Eastern Interior Tuesday
and Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Following several rounds of rain across the West Coast and the
Western and Central Interior, rivers and streams have risen
above normal. Another low is expected to move from the Chukchi
Sea southeast across the Interior Sunday into Monday which will
bring another 0.10 to 0.50 inches of rain to much of the
Interior. Higher amounts are possible along the northern slopes
of the Alaska Range. This will help keep water levels high, but
no flooding is currently expected.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM AKDT
     Sunday for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ802-
     803.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for
     PKZ802>804.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT
     Sunday for PKZ805-852.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ806-
     807-817-854.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ807-
     811.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ808.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ809-
     855.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ816-
     856.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ851-
     853.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM AKDT this evening for
     PKZ856.
&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Stokes
SYNOPSIS...Stokes
SHORT TERM...Stokes
LONG TERM...Stokes
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...Stokes
FIRE WEATHER...Satcher
HYDROLOGY...Stokes