092
FXAK69 PAFG 011309
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
509 AM AKDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Another wet day for the Western portions of the state, as
continued moisture gets advected into the area. Through the week
there will be off and on rain showers across much of the Interior.
Many rivers remain high across the Interior, with numerous
products out for them. Rainfall amounts will not be as high as
they had been, but continued rainfall will keep many rivers high
through the week. Outside of hydrological concerns, no
significantly impactful weather is expected.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Light Rain will continue this morning Fairbanks and west.
  Scattered showers will return Wednesday Morning to Friday night.
  These showers will be light with rainfall amounts below 0.25".

- AK Range gap winds up to 50 mph will continue through Tuesday
  morning.

- Warm and dry in the Upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile Country
  with highs in the low to mid 70s and minimal rain.

- Temperatures in the low to mid 60s elsewhere.

- Fairbanks could see some gusty winds up to 25 mph Tuesday and
  Thursday. These winds will be associated with passing cold
  fronts.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Rain continues across much of the West Coast and Western
  Interior.
-The Western Interior will see rainfall until early Tuesday
  morning before scattering out. Rainfall amounts will vary
  between 0.25"-0.75", with higher terrain seeing the most
  rainfall.
-The Seward Peninsula, Nulato Hills, and the Yukon Delta will
  see rainfall until Tuesday night. Rainfall will be heavy at
  times in the higher terrain with 24 hour accumulations up to an
  inch.

- Temperatures remain near normal on the Coast, while the Western
  Interior will be below normal.
-The normal temperature for Nome and Kotzebue today is 54
  degrees, while McGrath`s normal is 61 degrees.

- Another round of showers are possible for the Western Interior
  starting Wednesday morning.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Heavy rain in the southern slopes of the Central and Western
  Brooks Range with up to 1.5" of rain through Tuesday.

- Persistent periods of rain and rain showers for most of the
  Brooks Range and North Slope through mid week.

- Above normal temperatures will continue until Friday.
- The normal temperature for Utqiagvik today is 42 degrees.


.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A 538 decameter low continues in the Bering Sea, bringing
southwest flow into the Western Part of the state. This low
will meander in the Bering Sea for the next 24 to 30 hours. By
tonight this low will have occluded. This occluded low will
weaken, and quickly move off to the northeast underneath a
strengthening 300 millibar jet streak. With the low racing to the
northeast Tuesday, there will be a brief reprieve from the
rainfall. This will not last, as another shortwave will move
through the upper- level trough. This shortwave will bring another
round of showers to the Western Interior Wednesday morning.

In the Eastern Interior a ridge will continue today, before
getting pushed to the east from the occluded low moving across the
Interior. This occluded low will bring a weak cold front across
the Eastern Interior Tuesday morning. With this cold front there
will be a 850 millibar jet. This jet is anticipated to be 30 to
40kts. This jet is forecasted to be out of the Fairbanks area
before noon Tuesday. However, if this jet sticks around into the
afternoon and we clear out, we could see some gusty winds in town
with gusts up to 25 mph. There will be a very minimal surface
pressure gradient. If we aren`t able to mix winds from aloft down
to the surface, then the winds will be fairly light. Thursday a
similar situations is expected with another frontal passage early
Thursday morning


.FIRE WEATHER...
Minimal concerns for the Western Interior with persistent rain
showers continuing. The Upper Tanana Valley and Forty Mile
Country, however will be warm and dry for the next couple of days.
Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s today in the Upper
Tanana Valley. These temperatures will rely on how much clearing
we can achieve. Minimum RHs will be fairly dry in the Upper Tanana
Valley with them dropping down into the low 30s, if we clear out
quick enough Northway could drop into the 20s. Southerly gap winds
through the AK Range Passes will continue until Tuesday morning,
with gusts up to 50 mph.


.HYDROLOGY...
A variety of flood products exist across the Interior and Brooks
Range. Additional rainfall is likely through Tuesday with up to
1.5" possible in the Brooks Range, and generally 0.25" to 0.75"
across Western Alaska. There will be very slow improvement to the
current river statuses this week and we expect them to remain
high. Additional waves of rain look likely during the middle and
end of the week. For the most updated forecasts and warnings,
visit:

weather.gov/afg and weather.gov/aprfc

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
A weak ridge will move across the West Coast, and Interior Alaska
Friday. This will provide a brief reprieve of the rain for the
Western portions of the state. Another low will begin to move into
Bering Sea Saturday morning, bringing more rain and wind to the
West Coast. This low will not be as wet as our previous low
pressure systems, as much of the moisture from the Northern
Pacific will move towards Southcentral Alaska. This low will eject
multiple shortwave features towards the Interior bringing
increasing rain chance to much of Northern Alaska through the
weekend. The north slope will see some of this moisture by Sunday
night, and will have rain/snow chances going into next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ813-814-819-828-831.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-802-850-853-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803-805-855-857-859.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-810-852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-807-851-854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ809-817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.

&&

$$

Dennis