878
FXAK69 PAFG 041301
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
401 AM AKST Wed Nov 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Breezy in the AK Range, particularly Isabel Pass today with
  south gusts to 65 mph through the evening.

- Easterly winds around 25 to 45 mph expected in Delta Junction
  this morning, gradually weakening this afternoon and Thursday.

- Mostly dry for the Interior through Friday, but a weak front
  today brings light snow and flurries to the Interior, mainly
  in the terrain with a coating to 2 inches of snow possible.

- Light snow also possible on Saturday with most being in the
  Eastern Interior. Accumulations will be 1 inch or less.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Dry in most spots, but a few rain/snow showers persist in the
  Yukon Delta and St. Lawrence Island through Thursday. Isolated
  snow showers expected from the Bering Strait south Friday,
  isolated snow showers in the Western Interior this weekend.
* Little to no notable snowfall expected.

- East winds turn northeast Wednesday night with the highest
  gusts, up to 40 mph expected in the Bering Strait and Gambell
  through Friday morning. Winds weaken to 15 to 25 mph
  thereafter.

- Temperatures will be mild through Friday and drop to near
  normal levels Saturday. Continued cooling is likely on Sunday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Areas of light snow and wind gusts between 30 and 50 mph
  expected from Utqiagvik to Kaktovik through Friday night. The
  strongest wind gusts occur Thursday AM through Friday PM.
* Visibility may drop to 1/2 mile or less at times due to
   blowing snow.

- These strong winds move to the Chukchi Sea Coast late Thursday
  night but most of the snow remains to the north and east. Wind
  gusts to 50 mph are possible from Point Hope to Point Lay Friday
  through the weekend.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather in terms of impacts is fairly quiet overall. We have
some wind over the Arctic Coast accompanied with light snow
which will result in low visibility over the Beaufort Sea Coast
through Friday. A weak front in the Interior brings chances for
light snow, mainly in the Eastern Interior while the Alaska
Range sees some increasing winds. The West Coast has a few rain
and snow showers from the Yukon Delta to St. Lawrence Island but
it remains mostly dry for most of Western Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The pattern is a bit messy at 500 mb with a decaying 517
decameter low moving northwest into the Alaska Peninsula, a
bowling ball 520 decameter low over the North Slope and a
conglomeration of vorticity in the Eastern Bering. Looking at
the surface, there is a weak 1004 mb low near Deadhorse, a weak
front moving over the AK Range from the weakening 976 mb low in
the Alaska Peninsula, and a weakening low in the Bering. Out of
all of this, wind is the main story, especially on the Arctic
Coast. The weak surface low is interacting with a high over
Russia that is extending into the Beaufort Sea, resulting in a
tight pressure gradient over the Arctic Coast. The surface low
will also provide areas of light snow, and where there`s falling
snow accompanied with wind, visibility restrictions to 1/2 mile
or less are expected. this will persist through Friday, then
the winds gradually weaken into the weekend on the Beaufort Sea
Coast. The Chukchi Sea Coast will also have increasing winds as
the low moves west by Thursday afternoon/evening. The snow from
the low will remain mostly north and east of the area so blowing
snow isn`t a concern. Regardless, expect wind gusts up to 50
mph through Friday from Utqiagvik to Kaktovik with gusts up to
50 mph Thursday night through the weekend from Point Lay to
Point Hope.


The Central and Eastern Interior is also a bit windy, especially
in the Alaska Range and from Delta to Nenana today. A Tanana
Valley Jet continues to produce wind gusts between 30 and 45 mph
through this afternoon while weakening on Thursday. The high
pressure in The Yukon that was causing these winds will rapidly
weaken on Thursday. Otherwise, the low in the Gulf moving into
the AK Peninsula will bring a front to the Interior and we are
expecting light snow, mainly in the Eastern Interior today. A
few flakes are possible in the Middle Tanana Valley, but it
likely remains too dry for any accumulating snow. The terrain of
the Eastern Interior likely gets around 0.5 to 2 inches with
lesser amounts in the Upper Tanana Valley. As this is going on,
the AK Range gap winds increase, especially in Isabel Pass with
gusts up to 65 mph this afternoon. The gradient will rapidly
weaken as the low in the Gulf moves towards SW AK. It remains
mostly dry around the area on Thursday and Friday, but another
weak front moves towards the Interior on Saturday with another
chance for light snow.

Out West, the weather is quiet. Wind will be increasing from the
northeast in the Bering Strait and St. Lawrence Island Wednesday
night and continue through Friday morning. Wind gusts may be as
high as 40 mph at times. Otherwise, there`s isolated rain and
snow showers today from St. Lawrence Island to the Yukon Delta
and these gradually become snow dominant tomorrow. As the low in
the Alaska Peninsula moves into SW AK tomorrow, a few more snow
showers are expected in Western Alaska and these will meander
around through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
No significant weather is expected for the foreseeable future.
The pattern remains quiet when it comes to impactful Northern
Alaska weather. A low will continue to be in the Gulf bringing
periods of southerly and southeasterly flow through early next
week, leading to chances of light snow and periods of wind in
the Interior. Other than that, there is pretty high uncertainty
in individual features, but the overall trends heading into
next week are gusty east winds along the Arctic Coast with
chances for light snow and periods of gusty wind in the Bering
Strait with isolated snow showers meandering across Western
Alaska. Expect a general cooling trend with highs dropping into
the teens to near 20 late this weekend and early next week. The
only exception to that will be the Yukon Delta Coast and St.
Lawrence Island where it remains near 30 degrees. Portions of
the Interior which haven`t been below zero yet will get a crack
at it next week depending on cloud cover. Otherwise, there
aren`t many, if any, signs for large scale impactful weather.

Coastal Hazard Potential...
No significant concerns as the storm track remains south.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM AKST Friday for AKZ803>805.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ849.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for PKZ805.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKST
     Thursday for PKZ806-810-856.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM AKST this morning for PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM AKST this evening
     for PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST
     Thursday for PKZ807-851.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM AKST this evening for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKST Thursday for PKZ811-812-
     814-815-857-858-860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 AM AKST Thursday for
     PKZ813-860.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM AKST Thursday for
     PKZ813-817-859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory until 6 AM AKST Thursday for PKZ814-815.
     Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM AKST Thursday for
     PKZ815.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 3 AM to 6 AM AKST Thursday
     for PKZ815-860.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM AKST
     Thursday for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 AM AKST
     Thursday for PKZ854.
     Gale Warning until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for PKZ857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKST
     Thursday for PKZ859.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM
     AKST this evening for PKZ860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory until 6 AM AKST Thursday for PKZ861.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKST Thursday for PKZ861.
&&

$$

Bianco