392
FXAK69 PAFG 112243
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
243 PM AKDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm, dry, and mostly sunny is the primary story for this forecast
period. A ridge axis extends from southeast to northwest across
northern Alaska and the warmest and driest conditions accompany this
axis. A disturbance tracks around the ridge tomorrow through Friday
and focuses precipitation chances through the end of the week. In
general, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms develop each
afternoon and evening then diminish overnight. Rain chances stay
across the west half through Thursday before potentially shifting
east into the central and eastern interior on Friday. Otherwise,
temperatures warm to near 80F across the interior valleys on
Wednesday and these warm temperatures continue through the weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Warm and dry conditions continue into the weekend with high
temperatures around 80F likely each day through the weekend across
the interior valleys. Mostly clear skies allow low temps to fall
into the 50s each night.

- Isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are
possible on Friday with dry conditions returning for the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Mostly sunny skies and drier weather with high temperatures
approaching 70 along the coast and mid 70s to around 80 across the
Western Interior valleys.

- Afternoon and evening shower and isolated thunderstorm chances
begin today, expand on Wednesday, then diminish on Thursday.
Thunderstorm chances generally shift from the southwest interior
today toward the Brooks Range by Thursday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Highs range from near 50 over the Eastern Arctic Coast to the mid
70s near Umiat through the weekend due to southerly downslope flow
off the Brooks Range.

- Afternoon and evening shower and isolated thunderstorm chances
begin Wednesday evening and continue through Friday evening.
Thunderstorm chances generally shift from west to east.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tuesday Night through Friday/...
Ridging is the primary feature of interest for most of Northern
Alaska, but a 564 dm low near Kaktovik and broad troughing extends
south from Siberia across the Aleutians. The ridge axis extends from
southeast to northeast across the state and represents the axis of
clear skies and warmest temperatures today with temps already
warming into the 70s early this afternoon. Cooler temperatures in
the 40s and 50s accompany the upper low over the eastern Arctic
Coast, eastern portions of the Yukon Flats, and the immediate Bering
Sea Coast. Satellite and radar show a few showers across the eastern
Fortymile country, but most places are expected to stay dry.

A noteworthy disturbance is approaching the YK Delta this
afternoon, which helps to focus diurnal shower and thunderstorm
chances through the end of the workweek as it tracks around the
ridge. Current satellite imagery shows an increasingly agitated
cumulus field from the Kilbuck mountains northward to the Nulato
Hills. CAMs indicate up to 500 J/kg MUCAPE in these areas
suggesting potential for a few thunderstorms later this afternoon
and evening. Thunderstorm potential increases on Wednesday as the
disturbance tracks farther north into a moistening environment
with Pwats approaching 1 inch and MUCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg.
Given synoptic forcing and build CAPE we decided that introducing
scattered thunderstorms into the forecast was justified roughly
between Tanana and Kotzebue. Thunderstorm chances appear to mainly
shift north onto the western North Slope and adjacent portions of
the Brooks Range. There`s high confidence that chance shift
eastward on Friday. However, confidence is lower in regards to how
widespread the threat will be, especially across the interior so
we included a broad swath of isolated thunderstorm chances.

Other than the diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances detailed
above, unseasonably warm temperatures and light winds are expected
across the remainder of the area through the end of the workweek.
Consecutive days with highs around 80F (70s on the North Slope) are
expected to result in the warmest stretch of weather so far this
summer. Nighttime lows still cool into the 50s, but smoke from the
Tatlanika Fire complicates efforts to cool down overnight (e.g.
opening windows).

&&

.LONG RANGE...Friday through Monday
At the start of the extended period on Friday, stagnant high
pressure will maintain its influence over the majority of Alaska
thanks to reinforcement from a ridge over Siberia. Another major
feature is a low in the Bering, which is blocked by the high,
remaining relatively stationary. The presence of the high pressure
will support temperatures in the upper 70s to as high as the mid 80s
in the Interior. Even on the Arctic Plains, temperatures will likely
reach the mid 70s both Saturday and Sunday. Thunderstorms will
occasionally flare up as shortwave troughs break down the stability
of the ridge as they travel along its perimeter. The precise paths
and strength of these shortwaves and the resulting thunderstorms
still have a degree of uncertainty associated with them, but the
general concensus among models has storms in the Central and Eastern
Interior on Friday and around the YK Delta/Lower Yukon Valley on
Saturday, before model differences become more pronounced. Neither
of these convective events look particularly impactful, and
thunderstorms should remain mostly isolated.

Sunday, the whole pattern begins to shift eastward, including the
low in the Bering. The hottest temperatures should shift east along
with the ridge, from the the Central to the Eastern Interior.
Conditions will cool slightly in western regions of Alaska, as the
low brings chances for rain along with it. Models do show a plume of
tropical moisture coming north along with a low in the northern
Pacific, but the low apparently lacks the power to pull that
moisture very far north towards Alaska. If the low does manage to
get a hold of more of that moisture, more widespread rain would be
in store for the West Coat. As it stands now, rain totals should be
fairly light. Southerly winds through the Alaska Range passes should
strengthen as well as the pattern shifts east. The exact strength of
these winds depends a lot on the orientation of the upper-level
pattern, as well as the relative strength of the ridge and the low.
Currently, wind gusts in the models are peaking around 45 mph around
Sunday and/or Monday, but we`ll be keeping an eye on these winds and
potential impacts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A warm and dry ridging pattern has set up shop across the interior
and is here to stay for the foreseeable future. This means above
normal temperatures, light winds, and mostly sunny skies prevail
through the upcoming weekend. There is a fly in the ointment though
as a disturbance pivots around the ridge axis through the end of the
workweek bringing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon and evening. Generally speaking, thunderstorm chances
shift from the southwest today northward through Thursday then
eastward on Friday. Wednesday is the most likely day to have
scattered thunderstorms with the most likely area being between
Tanana and Kotzebue. Isolated thunderstorm chances spread into the
eastern interior on Friday. Overall, the Upper Tanana Valley
continues to be the warmest and driest place with almost no chance
of rain and min RH values dipping into the 25-35% range each
afternoon. Fortunately, light winds below 15 mph prevail.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kutta
KEY MESSAGES...Kutta
SHORT TERM...Kutta
LONG RANGE...Troyke
FIRE WEATHER...Kutta